WHY WILLIE MUST WIN THE NATIONAL: Willie, won’t he, catch Desperate Dan? Last year the Aintree Festival saw a storming late run by Willie Mullins to overhaul a near-£70k lead by Dan Skelton for the British trainer’s title.
Mullins has 28 entered over the three days this week but must win the £1m Grand National if he is to claw back a £1.4m Skelton lead. So here we go helter-Skelton into the opening day:
🏴 DAN SKELTON (9): 1.45 Boombawn; 2.20 Live Conti; 2.55 Grey Dawning; 3.30 Take No Chances; 4.05 Frere d’Armes, Jet Plane, Bennys King; 4.40 Calico; 5.15 Getawhisky.
🇮🇪 WILLIE MULLINS (9): 1.45 Impaire Et Passe; 2.20 Willy De Houelle, Murca; 2.55 Gaelic Warrior, Embassy Gardens; 3.10 Adela Icon; 3.30 Lossiemouth; 4.05 Anamix; 4.40 Hunter’s Yarn.
JANGO FOR FESTIVAL DOUBLE
⭕ 1.45 Aintree (Manifesto Novices’ Chase) Manifesto’s Grand National form 4F113330; last appearance at age 16. Red Rum 112211; last appearance aged 12.
Every year punters debate their favourite winners in Grand National history from Manifesto (1897 and 1899 winner) to Red Rum, whose name is remembered in the 4.40 race
Manifesto was second leg of one of the biggest bookmaking disasters when General Peace won the 1899 Lincoln at 100-1. The Czar of Russia had just issued his Manifesto for General Peace, and ‘everyone’ was on at the double.
If it’s more high drama you’re looking for, Jango Baie, who runs in this commemorative novices’ chase today, was 330.0 in running when he won the Arkle in March; it will be a long time before that offer during a five-horse championship is matched. Today’s step up in trip boosts his chance at 3.7 on BETDAQ this morning.
Willie Mullins applies cheekpieces first time to help Impaire Et Passe to go some way to avenging his Leopardstown third when Croke Park was runner-up.
MURCIA MULLINS FIRST STRIKE
⭕ 2.20 Aintree Murcia was giving 6lb to Puturhanstogether when weakening behind that one in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. Now 13lb better off and my bet for Willie Mullins first strike of the meeting. BETDAQ 6.8 taken.
IRISH TOWER OVER DAWNING
⭕ 2.55 Aintree (Golden Miller Chase) LAYS LOGIC Seven winning favourites in the last nine have won, so how come Grey Dawning is a logical lay.
The Golden Miller winner at Cheltenham in March 2024 swerved the festival this year to wait for this and get his ground.
The one he beat at Cheltenham that day, Ginnys Destiny, has been very disappointing since, and five others in today’s field have higher ratings than the Skelton favourite.
Spillane’s Tower as champion at both Fairyhouse and Punchestown last Spring, just failed to win the John Durkan in November, splitting Fact To File and Galopin Des Champs, in the John Durkan and also swerved Cheltenham for this. BETDAQ 4.1.
Paul Nicholls has won this four times in the decade but Stage Star has Aintree form of PL4 (pulled up, last of five, 4th of five). He also won the Cheltenham Golden Miller!
LOSSIEMOUTH’S REVENGE..
⭕ 3.30 Aintree (Aintree Hurdle) Constitution Hill tries to redeem himself after a fall four out in the Champion Hurdle.
Won this race in 2023 but went into it rated 20lb and 18lb over weak opposition which finished second and third.
His Christmas Hurdle runner-up Lossiemouth is more suited to today’s trip: form at 2m 4f+ is 1111.
⭕ 4.05 Aintree (Foxhunters) Famous Clermont won this two years ago and has been back in good form. My Drogo, winner of a Grade-1 hurdle at this festival for Dan Skelton, is also flying.
Willitgoahead was third in the Cheltenham equivalent of this, when last year’s Foxhunters winner was second for Derek O’Connor, who switches to Presentandcounting.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 5.3 Willitgoahead, 7.7 My Drogo, 8.5 Famous Clermont
ANOTHER IRISH WIN, FOLKES
⭕ 4.40 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) Only three times in 48 years has a horse carrying 12st won this, the last one 26 years ago.
Look below 11st and you’ll find eight winners in the decade, potentially soon to be joined by such as Petit Tonnerre who likes Aintree and remains 10lb down in the weights despite returning to form this year.
Henry De Bromhead has won this twice in the last five years and The Folkes Tiara has good form in strong Irish handicaps and has been aimed at this race.
Last year’s winner, Sans Bruit, has only over won in deep going yet Paul Nicholls is saying today that ‘he’s hated the winter ground.’
I thought Primoz, who lost a Grand Annual gamble in the false start, had a better chance – he’ll love this ground – but I won’t make a sound if Sans Bruit wins.
BETDAQ value 6.7 Primoz, 8.1 The Folkes Tiara, 9.1 Petit Tonnerre
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.45 Aintree (win 14)
BET 5pts win JANGO BAIE
2.20 Aintree (win 30)
BET 5pts win MURCIA
★ 2.55 Aintree (win 30, nap)
BET 10pts win SPILLANE’S TOWER
3.30 Aintree (win 12)
BET 8pts win LOSSIEMOUTH
4.05 Aintree (win 12)
BET 3pts win WILLITGOAHEAD
BET 1.5pts win FAMOUS CLERMONT
4.40 Aintree (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 7pts win THE FOLKES TIARA
BET 6pts win PETIT TONNERRE
BET 3pts to win 20 PRIMOZ
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