WHERE TO FIND HUGE VALUE: THEY’RE OFF at Liverpool today for the Grand National meeting and the race that remains the punter’s own. With the first four events on the opening day of the three-day meeting showing 101 and 102% – only slight overround – on BETDAQ exchanges, this is where to take the value. Last year’s industry SP on the same races returned 120, 114, 112 and 144% overround. Those huge ‘takes’ were by the bookmakers! Headlines:
🔸 FLAWS THAT VARY THE FORM
🔸 GO ‘MAMBO’ AT BETDAQ 17.0
🔸 JANGO BAIE FOR THE ‘BOWL’
🔸 SNOW & THUNDER FORECAST
🔸 LION’S SHARE FOR HURDLE
🔸 LEGACY YOUR RUM CHASER
⚠️ BREAKING NEWS ⚠️ Nick Rockett has been withdrawn from the Grand National. Last year’s winner has been ruled out on account of a self certificate (coughing).
His place will be taken by the Gordon Elliott-trained Pied Piper who was first reserve.
FLAWS THAT VARY THE FORM
⭕ 1.45 Aintree (Boodles Juvenile Hurdle) Two of the last three of these have gone to Willie Mullins, both fillies. Only one winner in the decade has had an SP bigger than 3-1.
Add the facts together and you get Selma De Vary, hampered closing stages when fourth in the Triumph Hurdle under today’s jockey, Paul Townend, and said by Willie to have a big future.
But I’m also adding together these risk factors: all her form is on soft-heavy; she’s obviously not straightforward, with hood and tongue-tie required.
Maybe not a lay at 3.85 this morning but with holes that let in doubt at the price, with the Triumph second (Maestro Conti) and third (Minella Study) both previously winners on better ground and holding Winston Junior on Trial form as effectively as ‘Selma’ holds Mange Tout on Leopardstown running in February. Take your pick in the first of the value markets.
GO ‘MAMBO’ AT BETDAQ 17.0
⭕ 2.20 Aintree (Manifesto) It’s impossible to swerve Arkle third, Lulamba, in the Manifesto but there’s a particular reason to watch Mambonumberfive, who could give us courage for the nap later on (see 4.40 race).
So I took 17.0 ‘Mambo’ on Betdaq Betting Exchange to the minimum stake plus a reverse forecast with the favourite.
JANGO BAIE FOR THE BOWL
⭕ 2.55 Aintree (Bowl) Impaire Et Passe beat Cheltenham Gold Cup runner-up Jango Baie in the Manifesto at this meeting a year ago. Both have had only three runs since.
But Jango Baie (pictured below) has improved 8lb in the ratings to 167 (Impaire Et Passe 3lb to 160), beaten half a length in the King George before that Gold Cup second.
Spillane’s Tower has scored only once since Punchestown Champion novice more than two years back and is pegged on the 164 of his Punchestown Gold Cup second and four-horse Grade-2 success at Cheltenham in January.
Protektorat ran up to Jonbon in the Melling Chase at last year’s meeting, a race Pic d’Orhy won in 2023. But both give four years away to Jango.
SNOW & THUNDER FORECAST
⭕ 3.30 Aintree (Foxhunters) Emmet Mullins, winner of Monday’s Irish Grand National, sends the 2024 winner of this, It’s On The Line, back over the Liverpool Grand National fences.
He’s trying to reclaim this hunter crown at the expense of Barton Snow, who beat him at Cheltenham in March, with Music Drive and Golden Son in the places behind.
Snow was having a ball with the leaders at today’s trip and is a worthy favourite but big-odds winners of this race (20-1, 22-1 and 66-1 in seven seasons) suggest we also need a speculative punt against him.
🏇 HIDDEN HORSE: Olly Murphy has Thunder Rock back from the doldrums, winning the last twice off 132, some 24lb lower than he was obliged to carry in the Aintree Bowl at this meeting in 2024. BETDAQ 18.5
LION’S SHARE FOR HURDLE
⭕ 4.05 Aintree Hurdle It’s Nicky Henderson 4 (including Constitution Hill) and Willie Mullins 3 (Lossiemouth winning last year), all bar one winner 5-1 or shorter in the decade.
Henderson has a rank outsider in Lucky Place who, along with flukey ex-champion Golden Ace, is one of the lowest among the ratings but shares highest of the weights.
Daqman stands by his choice of The New Lion in the Champion Hurdle, third, closing down runner-up Brighterdaysahead but no match for Lossiemouth, with Alexei in fourth.
LEGACY YOUR RUM CHASER
⭕ 4.40 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) LAYS LOGIC Favourites all beaten in the decade and Sans Bruit looks particularly vulnerable bidding for a hat-trick but facing a big improver in Highlands Legacy.
Legacy is raised a total of 18lb for four runs, stepping up from class 4 to class 3 and class 2 at Windsor, where Sans Bruit set the pace but was beaten nearly 10 lengths.
Highlands Legacy, now up to a mark of 133, ran at Aintree in November, going down less than a length to Mambonumberfive, who takes on Lulamba in the Manifesto (2.20) today off a rating of 146. BETDAQ 7.9.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
2.20 Aintree (win 16)
BET 1pt win MAMBONUMBERFIVE
Plus 1pt RF with LULAMBA
2.55 Aintree (win 15)
BET 10pts win JANGO BAIE
3.30 Aintree (win 35)
BET 2pts win THUNDER ROCK
BET 10pts to win 20 BARTON SNOW
Plus 1pt RF
4.05 Aintree (win 20)
BET 6pts win THE NEW LION
★ 4.40 Aintree (win 20, nap)
BET 3pts win HIGHLANDS LEGACY
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