AINTREE GIVEN BOOST WITH BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman’s the king of the tipsters. That’s a given! He launches his Aintree coverage today celebrating back-to-back naps, 5-1 on Tuesday at Musselburgh and then That’s A Given (WON 13-8), who romped home at Wincanton yesterday under Richard Johnson and looks a Fortune Cookie for next season.
WON 5-1 OUR PLACE IN LOULE (Tuesday nap)
WON 13-8 THAT’S A GIVEN (Wednesday nap)
SPOTTING BIG-RACE TRAINERS OF NATIONAL WEEK: Last week Daqman opened the Flat season with early-bird trainer tips, which produced winners at 14-1, 7-1, 11-4, 5-2, 9-4 and 8-13 over the two days. Today he tries the same again for Liverpool, as his analysis of facts and stats continues in the countdown. Today’s headlines:
JUST FOUR TRAINERS SCORE 80
WINNING RACES IS MY BAGUE
FAKIR NEWS! HE IS THE VALUE
CLAN COULD CLAIM THE BOWL
FRESH ‘AIR’ CAN BREEZE HOME
CRUISE IN WITH KRUHZLININ
McGROARTY HUGE 36.0 OFFER
➡️ Grand National ABC Guide in yesterday’s column CLICK HERE
JUST FOUR TRAINERS SCORE 80
Forget Cheltenham. Aintree is a completely different ball-game. Different terrain; different profile of form and results. More speed than grit until the finale, the Grand National.
And the loot is shared greedily by a quartet of the top English trainers, who have scored 80 times in the decade. Yes, EIGHTY against 29 all told for the Cheltenham champions from Ireland, of which – of course – you guessed it, Willie Mullins is top man with eight.
Since the Irish attack is at a much lower level than Cheltenham, their percentages are still high, if only when you consider that they have won the Grand National twice in three years and were second in the other one!
This is where Willie, who has drawn a blank in the race, usually gives way to dual winner, compatriot Gordon Elliott, who had a massive block entry.
With 21 contenders, Ireland will have more than 50% of the big-race runners at 5.15 p.m. on Saturday, so the percentages fly even higher for the biggest prize of them all.
The Lucky 13 top trainers at the National meeting in the last decade have been: Nicky Henderson (34), Paul Nicholls (20), Alan King (14), Colin Tizzard (12), Nigel Twiston-Davies (9), Willie Mullins (8), Gordon Elliott (6), Tom George (6), Philip Hobbs (6), Jonjo O’Neill (6), Peter Bowen (5), Donald McCain (5) and David Pipe (5).
Today’s card of runners for trainers on the list gives you these choices:
1.45 Aintree Mengli Khan
2.20 Aintree Pentland Hills, Christopher Wood, Fanfan Du Seuil, Adjali, Statuario
2.50 Aintree Clan des Obeaux, Kemboy, Bristol de Mai, Elegant Escape
3.25 Aintree Buveur d’Air, Faugheen, Melon, Verdana Blue, Summerville Boy
4.05 Aintree Kruzhlinin, Wonderful Charm
4.40 Aintree Brelan d’As, Eamon An Cnoic, Diego Du Charmil, Theinval, Whatswrongwithyou, Champagne At Tara, Molineaux
5.15 Aintree Daylight Katie, Giving Back, The Glancing Queen, Eyes Right.
WINNING RACES IS MY BAGUE
1.45 Aintree (Manifesto Chase) The trend is to younger animals. Eight-year-olds launched a hat-trick 10 years ago but five of the last six years have gone to horses aged six.
Will the trend be reversed by the mare, La Bague Au Roi, who took on the boys and beat them two months ago?
In successive races at Newbury, she went further and further away from Lostintranslation, who defended the form well at Cheltenham, second in the JLT.
Well-beaten JLT third was Mengli Khan, who has to give La Bague 7lb, and I notice that the Channon camp is noticeably quiet about Glen Forsa (holds Kalashnikov and Spiritofthegames) after he unseated in the Arkle and cost them a packet.
FAKIR NEWS! HE IS THE VALUE
2.20 Aintree (4-y-o Hurdle) Adjali was my outsider (first choice the ill-fated Sir Erec) for the Triumph Hurdle but was remote behind stablemate Pentland Hills, another at a big price.
Because of the Sir Erec fatality, it was an unsatisfactory race, with the winner doing no more than show off his professionalism despite having only his second ever hurdle.
Pentland Hills still has a lot to learn but, theoretically, much less than a class-4 novice winner, Christopher Wood.
I cannot see why ‘Christopher’ is 4lb higher in the ratings than Fakir d’Oudairies, already a Grade-2 winner and fourth in the Supreme, taking on his elders.
Fakir’s stablemate, Band Of Outlaws, easily won the Fred Winter, but the placed horses were nothing special and he was awarded 4lb less than Pentland Hills.
I’m hoping the ballyhoo about Band Of Outlaws- led by Pricewise – will create a price for a wiser bet, Fakir d’Oudairies (5.2 in the BETDAQ orange as I write).
Joseph O’Brien thinks that Outlaws is faster but Fakir finds more stamina, and the rain will play for him. The professional view is to back Fakir and save the stake with a small bet on Outlaws.
In any event, Pricewise has a cock-eyed view of value. He has tipped Band Of Outlaws for the 2020 Champion Hurdle! But he doesn’t think this morning’s 3.0 being exchanged about today’s juveniles’ race (7-4 with bookmakers) is worth a bet.
When this column nominates Fortune Cookies we follow them, whether all smiles or gritted teeth. The 1,017 points profit on the 2018 Flat suggests we have sømething to look forward to on the value front well before next year’s Champion Hurdle.
CLAN COULD CLAIM THE BOWL
2.50 Aintree (Aintree Bowl) Maybe King George winner Clan des Obeaux didn’t last the trip at Cheltenham, but Bristol De Mai was beating him for the third consecutive time when they met in the Gold Cup.
Maybe Bristol De Mai, who looked like winning gold after the last, has new-found strength – after all, he’s only eight – but has he fully recovered from the gruelling finish to that race?
Maybe Kemboy, who exited after the first that day, will be much more at home on today’s flat track and continue his improvement.
My view is that Bristol De Mai prefers tougher tracks, like his beloved Haydock, but that 3.9 BETDAQ offer Clan des Obeaux will enjoy today’s venue, the shorter trip and the better ground.
Kemboy is the improver but may well want to lead and has yet to mix it with the best. He beat Monalee seven lengths at Leopardstown but Monalee was five lengths behind Frodon in the Ryanair.
Elegant Escape holds Road To Respect on his three-parts-of-a-length defeat of Frodon but is 10lb behind ratings deadheaters, Bristol de Mai and Clan des Obeaux, both on 172.
FRESH ‘AIR’ CAN BREEZE HOME
3.25 Aintree (Aintree Hurdle) Buveur d’Air is unbeaten (2-2) at Aintree and won this race in 2017, his Champion Hurdle fall at Cheltenham leaving him comparatively fresh for this.
The 2015 Champion Hurdle winner, Faugheen, is nearest in the ratings, though 11 now. That says it all.
Buveur’s stablemate Verdana Blue would be in the picture if we knew she would stay 2m 4f. I shall have a small saver at 16.0, despite her trainer saying she won’t.
CRUISE IN WITH KRUZHLININ
4.05 Aintree (Foxhunters’ Chase) Run over the National fences, this has been won by such as Jamie Codd, Derek O’Connor and Sam Waley-Cohen, and the contention is that the jockey is vital.
That suggests a short list here of Road To Rome, Burning Ambition, Ucello Conti, Kruzhlinin and Asockastar.
Derek O’Connor switches from last year’s winner, Balnaslow, to Burning Ambition, a rising hunter-chase star, only eight. But the stats say that experienced horses of a double-figure age win this almost every time (9-10). The same applies to Sir Jack Yates.
Greensalt, six lengths off Balnaslow in the race last year, is considered a better horse on a sounder surface.
Ucello Conti and Kruzhlinin have run well in the Grand National. Both are in top form, as they swerve the big race for this. Road To Rome was just run out of it at Cheltenham and today will suit better for trip and going, if he’s over that ordeal.
I took 13.0 Kruzhlinin and 37.0 Greensalt, with a saver on the short-priced Road To Rome. That’s my 1-2-3.
McGROARTY HUGE 36.0 OFFER
4.40 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) Eamon An Cnoic (8.4 offers on BETDAQ) is expected to go for broke in this. Whether he’ll stay in front depends on the pace he sets for himself.
A good jumper and traveller, McGroarty is huge at 36.0. He will be suited by the ground, and Brelan d’As (10.5) has form with several leading fancies. That’s my 1-2-3
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Aintree (win 20)
BET 12pt win LA BAGUE AU ROI
2.20 Aintree (win 30)
BET 7.5pts win FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES
2.50 Aintree (win 20)
BET 7.25pts win CLAN DES OBEAUX
3.25 Aintree (SP supernap and win-20 outsider)
BET 20pts win BUVEUR D’AIR
BET 1.25pts win and place VERDANA BLUE
4.05 Aintree (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4pts win and place KRUZHLININ
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.4pts win and place GREENSALT
BET 2pts win (stakes saver) ROAD TO ROME
4.40 Aintree (win 30 twice and win 50)
BET 4pts win EAMON AN CNOIC
BET 3pts win BRELAN D’AS
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.5pts win and place McGROARTY
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