STEADY AWAY: One winner from three again yesterday when Mostahdaf (WON 7/4) came in at Sandown. Midweek racing is tough at the moment with an end of season feel and ever changing ground but thanks to Daqman’s staking plan he is keeping head above water.
Tuesday: profit on the day 0.6 points
WON 6/4 Motorious
Wednesday: profit on the day 1.5 points
WON 7/4 Mostahdaf
AYR COUNTDOWN: FACTS AND FIGURES FOR THE FIRST DAY: Ayr today and Ayr tomorrow! Then the big day on Saturday, featuring the Ayr Gold Cup. Daqman previews the meeting with stats and facts about the draw, and about trainers and jockeys to follow.
His first-day tips below ….
DON’T FORGET AYR HOME GUARD
⚠️ HEADS UP: Ayr draw. Ayr Day One stats recommend a strong stalls bias in the day’s big race, the Kilkerran Cup.
Very persuasively, stalls 8, 9, 10 and 11 have shared no fewer than seven winners of the Cup (3.00) in the last nine seasons.
⚠️ HEADS UP: The trainers. Past results emphasise how important it is to remember you are in Scotland and that local trainers don’t let prizes go south of the border lightly.
Scotland’s man of the year is Renfrewshire’s Jim Goldie, who has stepped into the big time this season with Euchen Glen taking the Brigadier Gerard, Nicholas T the Northumberland Plate and, in a daring raid deep down South on Goodwood, Tommy G bagged the Stewards Cup Consolation.
July on today’s course at Ayr was a reminder that, while big fish have been landed, little fish are sweet, when Goldie landed a 338-1 double.
His main rival at Ayr, leading him by one winner, is the punter’s pal, Iain Jardine, who trains in Dumfries and shows a level-stakes profit of £28.
⚠️ HEADS UP: The jockeys. Leading jockey at Ayr and another punters’ pal on profit is East Lothian born Andrew Mullen, who shows a plus of 22 points to £1 level stakes.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Ayr Gold Cup (winner’s stall since 2012): 8 ,19, 19, 8, 8, 17, 21, 24, 13.
Tomorrow: the Ayr Bronze Cup
GOING GLOBAL
⭕ 2.25 Ayr A busy start to Ayr’s Gold Cup meeting this afternoon with eight races on good to firm ground.
Mark Johnston should land the opener. Outbreak (1.50pm) was really impressive when winning by five lengths at Salisbury second time up but will be priced prohibitively to follow up even with his penalty.
The first BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE bet on the card is Global Humor in this seven furlong handicap. Trained by Jim Goldie who, as mentioned above, loves to do well at this meeting, Global Humor has an exceptional record at Ayr of 212221 and was a winner here in July over this trip (and ground).
He has run respectively since in three starts all over the minimum five furlongs but if anything the step up in trip again should be read as a positive.
MAC LOOKS SET FAIR
⭕ 4.45 Ayr Fairmac could be another on the card for Mark Johnston. The only three-year-old in the race, Fairmac has a 100% (2 from 2) record here at Ayr including over today’s trip in July when he ran out a comfortable winner. He’s taken a hike in the weights since then but continues to run well – including a close-up third at Haydock last time out.
Cockalorum looks the obvious danger after three hugely creditable placed efforts at Goodwood and York (twice). He loves making the running and would have been the selection but for a slight question mark over the fast ground. He’s not proven on ground as quick as this with his career wins ranging from soft to good ground.
SEEN THE LIGHT WITH ECLIPSE
⭕ 5.50 Ayr Eclipse De Lunar might be worth another chance helped by a 2lb drop in the weights. He was disappointing at Carlisle last time out but just didn’t seem to handle the track in a race where PJ McDonald on Roseabud stole it from the front.
Eclipse De Lunar is probably better judged on his earlier season runner-up at York in a better class race and subsequent win at Catterick.
Biggest danger may come from the lightly raced Tendentious who has finished well-beaten thirds in all three of his races but could be seen to more effect now in handicap company.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.1pts win GLOBAL HUMOR (2.25 Ayr)
BET 2.0pts win FAIRMAC (4.45 Ayr)
BET 3.0pts win (nap) ECLIPSE DU LUNAR (5.50 Ayr)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
