FRANKEL COLT FILLS THE PERSSE: It’s carry on Daqman, with a winner a day now for six days, thanks to his gamble on unraced Frankel two-year-old Atty Persse (WON 10-11) but it would have been so much nicer had 10-1 Lord Scoundrel stood up making his challenge two out for the Kerry National. Another day for him in the Munster version (but a shorter price, no doubt).
HUGE BETDAQ OUTSIDERS AT AYR: Daqman is hunting the big pots at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting, which opens today on soft ground. No wonder his bets include 32.0, 30.0, 13.5, 11.5, 11.0.
ELLIOTT 13.0 SHOT BEST AT LISTOWEL: He also has a ‘hidden horse’ at Listowel at 13.0, trained by Gordon Elliott, the man who won the Kerry National yesterday. Can Daqman maintain his winner-a-day run at these high prices?
FAHEY BIRD CAN FLY IN AT THE DOUBLE
2.00 Ayr Richard Fahey was seething when the handicapper took the unusual step of hiking Our Boy Jack 7lb for winning a claimer.
But Fahey is expecting a good run in the same race from Miss Van Gogh, despite her steadier of 9st 9lb. She is a hidden horse, having twice run over the wrong trip including on the wrong ground.
This handicap has only a 7lb range and Miss Van Gogh is dropped two grades to a class 4 for the first time since the Spring, returning to her best trip of a mile, and having the soft ground which has won her five races: a tasty 10.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
3.05 Ayr Track specialists Charava (two wins here), Dark Crystal (five) and Tectonic (two) all have high draws, and Vallarta is more at home over 6f.
John Quinn does well at this meeting but Safe Voyage is in the ‘coffin box’ one stall and Quinn is currently missing strike badly, with form figures of 22040300323.
I’ll take a Fahey contender again, expecting Bahamian Bird (7.8 offers from stall 4) to catch front-runner Jay Kay, as she did over the Ayr CD six weeks ago.
‘SECRET’ OUTSIDER IN TRIPLE WHAMMY
4.50 Ayr (Doonside Cup) It’s one for film fans with Almodovar and Tony Curtis raiders from the South but, if you reprise the history of this race, you’ll see that trainer Saeed Bin Suroor hogs the cameras.
From 2009-13, he farmed the Doonside Cup with form figures of 1121, and his runner today, Secret Number, not seen since an attempt on the Queen’s Cup at Flemington last backend, has identical 1121 form when fresh, loves soft ground and has won a grade higher (Group 3) than this at Ascot.
Almodovar has been placed in a Group 2 and was out of his depth behind Postponed at the highest level in the International at York.
Abdon and Maleficent Queen are capable at this level and Tony Curtis has finished close up in four consecutive Group-3s, albeit without a win on the soft.
If he was with any other yard and you saw 12.5 Secret Number after his long absence, he’d be a lonely dog on a raft, over your betting weir.
But it doesn’t apply to this yard. And the BETDAQ offer gives me a chance of a good forecast (on Ladbrokes) with Almodovar.
In fact, I shall try a rare (these days) Triple Whammy, with Almodovar to win, Secret Number to place and a lay Abdon (2.9 in the green as I write).
They’re shouting Abdon in the market but I’m not getting so much as a whisper from my man in the long grass (the servants took him a flask of tea early on in the morning mist last time the beast galloped).
He said: ‘Abdon is a hidden Stoute improver but a nervous type, still green.’ He won’t get the dry biscuit with his tea next time if he’s wrong.
BUNCE IS BIG AT 13.5 AS THE FORM BET
5.20 Ayr We should get a stalls guide to the big races on Saturday from this sprint. Nine Ayr Gold Cup winners out of 14 have come from double-figure stalls.
But last year the result of this class 5 by draw was 8, 1, 14, 3, 10, and the Silver and Gold on the Saturday went to 4, 11, 3, 2, 10 and 8, 4, 9, 5, 20, respectively. So 13 out of 15 places in the three events went to stalls 1 to 11.
The signs are that it will go low again. No wonder I warned you on Tuesday to ‘wait and see’ and not fall into the bookies trap of betting ante-post when this vital draw information is still missing.
By a boggling coincidence, eight consecutive drawn 1 to 11 in this 5.20 sprint are in the bottom half of the handicap, numbers 12 to 19 inclusive. Just where the winner is likely to come from when it’s soft.
Addicted To Luck’s name could well be ‘addicted to mud’, and three-year-olds have won the race twice in in the decade.
But the form seems to hinge on a heat here last month when Bunce (13.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) got the better of Dublin-raider Catwilldo yet is well better off today. The stable won it last year with Rock Canyon (32.0), so we’d better have small stakes on that one and Addicted To Luck (30.0).
DELEGATE A 13.0 LISTOWEL DELIGHT
4.00 Pontefract Another Lincolnday, who made all over CD in August, is way too big at 11.5 in the BETDAQ orange as I write, with three chances of a place from eight runners.
4.40 Listowel (Ladbrokes Ireland Handicap) Gordon Elliott, who landed a Listowel double yesterday, including the Kerry National, has a hidden horse here in Delegate.
A stumble in one race, a trip to far in the next and his earlier successes are forgotten. But back to his right trip today for his handicap debut at 13.0 on BETDAQ. It’s a very open race and he could be the punt.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 2.2pts win and place MISS VAN GOGH (2.00 Ayr)
BET 3pts win and place BAHAMIAN BIRD (3.05 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place ANOTHER LINCOLNDAY (4.00 Pontefract)
BET 1.6pts win and place DELEGATE (4.40 listowel)
BET 11pts win (nap) ALMODOVAR, and 1.75pts win and place SECRET NUMBER, plus LAY to lose 10pts ABDON (4.50 Ayr)
BET 1.6pts win and place BUNCE, and 0.5pts win and place ADDICTED TO LUCK and ROCK CANYON (5.20 Ayr)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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