TODAY: THE DAQMAN CESAREWITCH ABC GUIDE: Today Daqman examines all the facts and figures from the 20 races run under the Cesarewitch banner this century, and what they mean to the probables for Saturday’s big race.
TOMORROW: OH-SO-HOT TWO-YEAR-OLD TESTS: Newmarket opens tomorrow with an eight-race card, featuring five two-year-old tests, including the Fillies Mile, the Oh So Sharp and the Cornwallis Stakes.
CRUCIAL CESAREWITCH STATS
⚠️ HEADS UP: Daqman special on all the facts and figures from the Cesarewitch results this century, followed by their ABC application to Saturday’s runners.
Age 6, 4, 7, 8, 5, 6, 4, 6, 11, 3, 6, 4, 8, 4, 7, 7, 4, 4, 5, 6 (Key A: 17-20 aged four to seven). Only four winners over the age of seven since 1974.
Distance: 83% had won on the Flat over 1m 6f plus (Key B) B + also raced under NH rules (4-6)
Draw 16, 2, 1, 1, 19, 9, 4, 12, 25, 12, 3, 36, 1, 18, 2, 15, 23, 24, 13, 20 (Key C: 1-4 seven; 18 and over seven).
Trainers Wins: Mark Johnston (3), Philip Hobbs (2), Nicky Henderson (2), Brian Meehan (2), Willie Mullins (2).
Places: Mullins 6, Johnston 5, Tony Martin 5, Henderson 4, Hobbs 3; Meehan, Alan King, Hughie Morrison, all 2 (Key D: Henderson, Hobbs, Johnston, Meehan, Mullins)
Jockeys (with more than one win) Silvestre De Sousa (3).
Places: Ryan Moore 5, De Sousa 4, Martin Dwyer 4, Jamie Spencer 4, Andrea Atzeni 3.
Weight 8st 5lb – 8st 11lb (8) and 9st 2lb – 9st 6lb (4). Rating 86-97 (90%). Key E.
SHARK IN THE JAWS OF VICTORY
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch Handicap, 2m 2f)
Key: A Age, B Distance (+ if also raced in NH), D Trainers, E Weight.
AB+DE Great White Shark
Won 2019 Flat handicap at the Galway festival and 2020 Guinness Hurdle there: 10th in the Cesarewitch last year; 3lb lower now and trainer goes for a hat-trick in the race.
ABDE Mondain
Back to form the last day (penalty) but has won only small-field handicaps before last-time-out win at Ayr.
ABD Summer Moon
Third in this race a year ago off 9lb lower. Gelded since and third in the Ascot Stakes before winning at York the last day
AB+E Dalton Highway
Won Christmas Hurdle and Curragh Flat handicap back to back, separated by time off. Second to Great White Shark, fourth to Jukebox Jive last season.
AB+E Jukebox Jive
15 consecutive defeats for Jamie Osborne before move to Gavin Cromwell and win in November Handicap at Naas (heavy).
AB+E Lynwood Gold
Third to Dalton Highway in the summer before winning Ebor Trial at the Curragh and third to Princess Zoe at the Galway festival.
AB+E Whirling Dervish
Flat winner on heavy ground. Won maiden hurdle and sixth in a Grade B since moving from Jessica Harrington to Gavin Cromwell.
ABE Australis
AW-only winner, second in the Northumberland Plate.
ABE Author’s Dream
Two class-4 wins. Behind Just Hubert (Goodwood) and Mondain (Newcastle)
ABE Coeur de Lion
Twice well beaten in this race but won the Ascot Stakes in June.
ABE Diocletion
Small-field winner, third in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock last month.
ABE Future Investment
Won 2m at Chester with 10st, beating yesterday’s scorer, Vindolanda.
ABE Just Hubert
Won the Goodwood Handicap over extreme distance.
ABE Rajinsky
Hat-trick of seconds; seventh in the Northumberland Plate.
ABE Reshoun
Placed November Handicap (2018) and Old Borough Cup (2019); beat Rajinsky in the Marsh Cup at Newbury (2020). Jim Crowley booked.
ABE Smart Champion
Fourth to Coeur de Lion in the Ascot Stakes, third to Just Hubert in the Goodwood Handicap
ABE True Destiny
Third Goodwood Handicap (2019), third in the Marsh Cup (2020)
B+E Not So Sleepy
Followed up fourth in this last year with back-to-back hurdles wins.
BE Coltrane, Arthurian Fable
First and second in the Melrose at York; 3yo won only once since 1998.
B+ Leoncavallo
Old-timer revived by switch to David Pipe, with back-to-back wins in a novice chase and on the Flat at Haydock.
THE LEADING LORD
⭕ 2.20 Ffos Las One of the old sayings is ‘there’s heavy ground and there’s Chepstow heavy ground’. I think it can equally apply to fellow Welsh course Ffos Las.
The course tweeted earlier today:
Racing goes ahead after passing our 7am course inspection. 20mm of rain overnight with another 2-3mm possible before 8am, clearing afterwards. Going is HEAVY. First race 12.45pm – all live @SkySportsRacing. pic.twitter.com/MdYAGwoF44
— Ffos Las Racecourse (@FfosLasRC) October 8, 2020
Suffice to say we are going to have to look for mudlarks but plenty seem to fancy their chances as there aren’t too many non runners at the time of writing.
Lord Bryan makes plenty of appeal here – even more so if my theory about Chepstow and Ffos Las having bottomless ground is correct. The Peter Bowen trained chaser is previously a heavy ground winner at Chepstow.
He’s also a confirmed front runner and that appeals to me in a race like this – it’s certainly not a day for wanting to get left too behind.
The front running tactics came close to paying off at Uttoxeter last time out – he was only overhauled by Follow The Swallow close home and beaten half a length.
Financial Outcome looks short enough. He would need to win after a break which is something he has yet to do and hasn’t been seen since pulling on on heavy ground in the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter.
LAYING DOWN THE LAW
⭕ 2.30 Exeter Incredibly the going at Exeter is good to firm – work that one out !! It’s not a bad card and another sign of the jumps season cranking up through the gears.
Ga Law looks the answer to this handicap chase. The Jamie Snowdon trained runner was outsider of the three at Fontwell but jumped his two rivals ragged and looks a nice prospect. The Exeter fences take some jumping so hopefully he can put in another assured round.
128 looks a fair enough starting point from the handicapper. He certainly appeals more than the 130 rated Mr Medic who is a class dropper but has gone off the boil since winning at Ascot back in November 2018.
YOU GO UGO
⭕ 3.10 Ayr Hopefully it’s just a case of an action replay with Ugo Gregory who was a comfortable two length winner over course and distance last week and the 5lb penalty shouldn’t halt his progress.
Whilst it was good last week, the bad news for his rivals is that he seems just as effective with give in the ground and coped well enough on his only previous start on heavy at Nottingham.
Viva Voce won well at Redcar but struggled in the same level as today last time out – a bigger danger may emerge from the Michael Dods trained Sin E Shekells who has his first start for the hard having joined from Ireland.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.7pts win LORD BRYAN (2.20 Ffos Las)
BET 5.1pts win GA LAW (2.30 Exeter)
BET 8.5pts win (nap) UGO GREGORY (3.10 Ayr)
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