THE LADBROKE ABC GUIDE: Today Daqman analyses The Ladbroke two-mile hurdle at Ascot on Saturday with his ABC guide to the runners, which relates the form of the horse to the stats.
DRIVING HOME FOR CHRISTMAS: Daqman looks to today’s Jumps meetings at Exeter and Towcester on the run to Christmas as he looks to drive home more winners for the Christmas fund. His Nap runs at Exeter with some DAQ Multiples at both courses to increase the profits.
IRISH RAIDERS MAY HOLD THE EDGE
3.35 Ascot, Saturday (The Ladbroke) Team Pipe (three wins from 2005) used to dominate this race but Nicky Henderson (2) and, in the last three years, Gordon Elliott (2/3) have taken the reins.
Winners are between 10-1 and 14-1 SP (5/9), though the odd favourite has won and the odd outsider, too.
Top weights didn’t do well in the decade (none above 11st 9lb); bottom weights didn’t do well (only one winner below 10st 5lb).
One seven-year-old has won; one four-year-old. But horses aged five and six (6/7) much are best.
A Age five and six (7/9)
B In first four in 14+ field (8/9)
C Rated 130-144 (7/9)
D Trained Elliott, Henderson, Pipe (7/9)
ABC Hurricane Hollow
Goes well fresh and good third in Grade-3 Chepstow Silver Trophy in October. Given a long break since with this in mind. Can make mistakes.
ABC Noble Inn
County Hurdle hope for Cheltenham who won Amateurs’ Derby on the Flat at The Curragh and jumped well to score at Clonmel in the mud over hurdles. Not very big.
ABC Rayvin Black
Unlucky when just failing to make all in the Imperial Cup at Sandown in March, and the ‘moral’, giving 8lb, when runner-up to Winner Massagot at Ascot in November, again from the front. Now 9lb higher than for Sandown.
ABC Sort It Out
Three out of four, two of them beating big fields. Second in the County Hurdle before winning a Grade B at the Punchestown festival. Up 33lb in a year.
ABC Waxies Dargle
Disappointed in the County Hurdle but bounced back to take the Ladbrokes Ireland Hurdle at Killarney in May and, despite being hit for an 8lb rise, was third to Old Guard in the Greatwood (Renneti fifth, Devilment seventh), with Old Guard franking the form in Saturday’s International Hurdle
AB Renneti
A Grade-1 novice – second in the Royal Bond – he went close in the Cesarewitch (fourth, beaten a length and a half) and got competitive too late, fourth again, in the Greatwood, won by Old Guard.
AC Jolly’s Cracked It
Fifth in a Grade-3 at Newbury in February and, though well beaten at both Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, did well on his return when third at Ascot (Unanimite second, Sign Of A Victory fourth)
AC Vicenzo Mio
Well-touted third in a Sandown Listed earlier in the month behind Lil Rockerfeller and Devilment. Was expected to win and comfortably get into the bottom of this handicap but stable has been under a cloud.
AD Altior
Nicky Henderson had back-to-back wins in this (2007-8) and Altior has progressed well at the top tracks with a hat-trick at Chepstow, Ascot and Cheltenham. Very muscular, athletic sort.
A Three Kingdoms
Three out of four over hurdles before went chasing. Returned to hurdles with fourth to Winner Massagot and Rayvin Black here at Ascot last month.
BC Galizzi
Only his second hurdle when chasing home gambled-on A Hare Breath at Cheltenham in November but the winner let the form down on Saturday
BC Presenting Arms
Four wins out of five in last 13 months but all at a lower level and latest 10lb rise looked severe.
BC Some Plan
Lightly raced, down the field in Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in March and beaten in the Lil Rockerfeller race at Sandown on his return when gambled on in first time tongue-tie.
B Devilment
Sixth in the Greatwood before runner-up to Lil Rockerfeller (Vicenzo Mio and Some Plan behind) at Sandown earlier in the month
CD Unanimite
A nearly horse in good grades, including close second in Listed at Ascot in October (Unanimite second and Jolly’s Cracked It third) but form quite static, only 2lb higher after four races since Cheltenham in March
CD Vercingetorix
Gordon Elliott bridesmaid (form 32222) down the field in first handicap in first-time blinkers at Fairyhouse in November.
C Sgt Reckless
In first four behind Vautour, Josses Hill and Faugheen last year; turned to chasing but won only a small-field novice at Carlisle.
C Sternrubin
Gradual improver who finally won the Gerry Feilden in November, getting an easy lead in a sub-standard renewal.
C Winner Massagot
Highly touted by his stable, he won a handicap at Ascot in November impressively, travelling well throughout, to beat Rayvin Black, Leviathan and Three Kingdoms.
C Zarib
Third to Peace And Co in trial for Fred Winter, in which he subsequently finished sixth. Not seen again until third in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton in November.
NOT MUCH OF A PUZZLE AT EXETER
1.50 Exeter Despite the small field, this looks competitive. However, Cash and Go and Dunraven Storm both suffer from their jumping. While they’re both decent sorts, they generally jump themselves out of winning.
On Solar Impulse’s Novice form he would have to have a chance. He ran some very decent races in defeat, including a head bobbing finish at Doncaster with Three Kingdoms. He was outclassed in his following two runs last season. Although he finished last of three first time out at Haydock, he was only beaten four lengths. He has form on Heavy ground in France.
Kylemore Lough though is the biggest benefactor on weight terms, only rated a pound lower than Solar Impulse but gets 4lbs in the race conditions. He comes here off the back of a very impressive win at Uttoxeter last time on his second run over fences and, at the weights, he could prove hard to beat.
2.20 Exeter It’s hard to look beyond Bitofapuzzle. Cresswell Breeze and Dark Spirit are both decent sorts in their own right but this really revolves around the Harry Fry horse.
Bitofapuzzle is a Grade 1 winning Novice and despite being a Novice, finished third in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham. She had previously won a very good race at Ascot with some seasoned campaigners and she could prove to be very exciting over fences. She’s a short price but worthy of Banker status.
JUST ONE FOR TOWCESTER
2.10 Towcester This looks a two horse race on paper. Monderon and St Johns Point stand out.
Monderon ran with credit on his Chase debut at Leicester at the start of the month and is now rated 100. This is probably not too lenient considering the highest mark he won off over hurdles was 97 but there is a chance for some improvement.
St Johns Point is a more solid option. He ran well on his first two runs over fences this season and has won at the track previously over hurdles. He looks to be improving and this could break his Maiden tag over the larger obstacles.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 a banker)
BET 4pts win KYLEMORE LOUGH (1.50 Exeter)
BET 4pts win ST JOHNS POINT (2.10 Towcester)
BET 10pts win BITOFAPUZZLE (2.20 Exeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt Doubles and a 1pt Treble FOR GOOD MEASURE (1.20 Exeter), BITOFAPUZZLE (2.20 Exeter) & CAJUN FIDDLE (3.40 Towcester)
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