FIVE OUT OF FIVE AND NO LOSERS: Daqman took up his bow yesterday and sent five consecutive arrows into the target; no losers. He had four winners, including his nap, plus a place bet big enough to take his fifth bet into plus.
THAT BRINGS IN 34 POINTS PROFIT: Even on a small-stakes day, that gave him 34 points profit. The returns in time order were from:
WON 2-1 Meshardal
WON 11-8 Spinatrix (nap)
WON 5-4 Bow And Arrow
3RD 7-1 Le Chat d’Or (win and place)
WON 5-4 Process
BANKERS DOUBLE ON DAY ONE AT AINTREE: Now look out at Aintree, first day of the Grand National meeting, which Daqman has already launched with his facts and fallacies and ABC guide to the big race (see Archive). There are two bankers this afternoon, and three bets against Pricewise in the 4.05 and 4.40 races. Current score: Daqman 8, Pricewise 2.
TRIUMPH STAT MAKES HARGAM A BANKER NAP
1.40 Aintree (Manifesto Chase) This is a bogey race for Paul Nicholls, who’s even managed to get Al Ferof and Dodging Bullets beaten in it. The last six consecutive winners had all lost at the Cheltenham Festival. And only one favourite has won.
If I’m making Aintree sound tricky, you got it. Apart from the change of track from hilly Cheltenham to flat Liverpool, today’s ground is drying out.
But, until we see different with our own eyes, we can only assume that Josses Hill will have too much pace for Vibrato Valtat and Clarcam, as he did at Cheltenham, and we know he stays this 2m 4f. His trainer, Nicky Henderson, has won the race twice in five years.
2.15 Aintree (Anniversary Hurdle) This is my race, says Alan King, trainer of Winner Massagot. In five attempts since 2007, his form figures are: 11211.
Three of them had won or been placed in the Triumph Hurdle, as had last year’s Irish-trained winner; in fact there have been five Triumph triumphs in this in nine years.
This year’s representatives from that race are the third home, Hargam, and the remote fourth, Devilment. Hargam is red hot this morning, but I can’t resist a place bet on Winner Massagot at 37.0.
2.50 Aintree Bowl Team Pipe, responsible for Ballynagour, bagged three out of four from 2006-9. The 2013 second and third, Menorah and Silviniaco Conti, renewed rivalry last year when Conti won with Menorah well back. And here they are again.
Silviniaco Conti is much better suited to the flat tracks of Aintree and Kempton, than Cheltenham, where he failed to reach the first three in the Gold Cup for the third year running.
Holywell has won twice at Cheltenham and finished in front of Conti for gold, but I think the other flat-track horse here is the improving Ma Filleule, who has already won at Kempton and Aintree (when Holywell fell behind him, showing his usual lack of fluency everywhere but Cheltenham).
3.25 Aintree Hurdle The winner has come from the first four in the Champion Hurdle for the last two years, and that race is stronlgy represented this time around.
This year’s second, Arctic Fire, fourth, Jezki, and last home, Vaniteux, all meet again, with Jezki (2014) and Rock On Ruby (2012) both previous champions at Cheltenham.
There appears to be more than six lengths difference between Arctic Fire and Jezki on championship form in March but Tony McCoy took on the task of having a go at Faugheen.
Faugheen ran him out of it altogether, pushing back into fourth, and it was Arcrtic Fire who stayed on for second behind the ‘monster’ in front.
Jezki has already won over today’s extra distance and, with McCoy anxious to make amends, and with no Faugheen to dwarf them here, it is a very hard call.
Thankfully, BETDAQ comes to the resuce with a 100% list in the orange, which means that I can accept 4.0 Jezki and have a stakes saver Arctic Fire, taking up some of the percentages I would lose anyway with a bookmaker.
LAST SHALL BE FIRST OVER NATIONAL FENCES
4.05 Aintree (Fox Hunters’ Chase) The Cheltenham version, the Foxhunter, contained the 2008, 2011 and 2012 winners of this, but two of those three hadn’t completed the course at that festival, and seven winners of this in the decade swerved Cheltenham altogether.
Seven of the last nine winners have been older than 10, and Tartan Snow, the 100-1 scorer in 2013, and second last year, tries again at age 15. Last year’s winner, Warne, and fourth, Earth Dream, are also back.
Pacha Du Polder (off 143), On The Fringe (141) and Twirling Magnet (140) are clear in the ratings. On The Fringe won the Foxhunter last month, with Chosen Milan (5th), Shoreacres (6th) and Current Event behind.
Pacha Du Polder has spent two years in the wilderness since winning the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury; another example of a young horse asked to race in the big time too soon. He’s back to form now but still only eight and not bred for this test.
Twirling Magnet is currently winning races but Jonjo O’Neill, his trainer, once said of him: ‘He’s a good horse on a good day; trouble is he has a lot of bad days.’
My fancy (and it can be no more than that in a race of amateurs jumping the Grand National fences) is one-time Topham third, Last Time D’Albain, who on the last day beat Carsonstown Boy, second and fourth in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham in the last two years.
4.40 Aintree (Red Rum Chase) Last year’s winner Parsnip Pete is now 18lb worse off for eight lengths with the fourth horse home, Astracad.
That’s more a measure of Pete’s weight problem today than Astracad’s chance. Neither he nor trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies have shown much sparkle this season and Astracad hasn’t won for three years.
If this race went to the trainer in form it would be Tony Martin, who’s had four winners in three days at home in Ireland, where Ted Veale rarely gets his ground.
He’s won four times when the going has been no worse than good to soft, and has a weights turnaround with Cheltenham Grand Annual winner and fourth, Next Sensation and Ned Buntline. But he’s a bit of a quirky sort.
The last time Ned Buntline encountered good ground was in last year’s Grand Annual, when he beat Claret Cloak and Next Sensation. He’s now better off with both and has McCoy in the saddle.
Next Sensation has improved since then but it was soft ground that won him the Grand Annual, with Ned Buntline only three lengths down at the second last after being hampered and now 8lb better off.
Claret Cloak comes back into it, with Sean Bowen’s 5lb allowance. He missed Cheltenham because of the soft and goes well fresh. It’s very hard to choose between that one, Ned Buntline and Next Sensation.
I’ll oppose the favourite on this flat track, taking 9.0 Ned Buntline and 10.5 Claret Cloak.
They keep reaching for the duct tape with Bellenos. He had a wind op before Cheltenham, but flopped in the Grand Annual; now he has blinkers first time. I’d want to see him run again before I risk my money.
5.15 Aintree By this time, you are either saying ‘I told you to follow Cheltenham form’ or you are whining and opining: ‘That got stuffed at Chelters; how on earth did it win here?’
Reminder: Cheltenham takes it out of some horses, though maybe not the young improvers; Cheltenham was softer than today; Cheltenham is a hilly track, Aintree is flat. And it’s another day!
Clondaw Kaempfer and Lac Fontana won here at last year’s Aintree Festival but both have to bounce back after moderate form since.
The 1-2-3 in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham (when the ground was drying out) are here again: Call The Cops, Unique De Cotte, The Tourard Man.
Nicky Henderson is out in force but this is not a race he (or Nicholls) wins; top trainers are Jonjo O’Neill (three since 2006) and David Pipe (two).
Master Malt (O’Neill at 21.0 on BETDAQ) is a good-ground horse. Taglietelle (well backed at 9.2) was staying on at Cheltenham. Alan King knows the score through The Tourard Man but has Ulzana’s Raid fresh (16.5 shot who goes really well for Wayne Hutchinson).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except bankers)
Until I am happier about the ground and the form, I have no bull’s-eye bets. I have two bankers in the hope that, if one loses, the other will pay for it. In the best of all worlds, both will win. I also have equal stakes on the next two races but that is by chance; both are staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ morning offers.
BANKER: BET 20pts win JOSSES HILL (1.40 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) HARGAM (2.15 Aintree)
BET 10pts win SILVINIACO CONTI (2.50 Aintree)
BET 10pts win JEZKI and 5pts win (stakes saver) ARCTIC FIRE (3.25 Aintree)
BET 3pts win LAST TIME D’ALBAIN (4.05 Aintree)
BET 3.75pts win NED BUNTLINE and 3pts win CLARET CLOAK (4.40 Aintree)
BET 3.5pts win TAGLIETELLE, 2pts win ULZANA’S RAID, and 1.5pts win and place MASTER MALT (5.15 Aintree)
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