EXCEPTIONAL TIPPING SCORES IN TWO RACES OUT OF THREE: Daqman made an Exceptional (WON 5-2) start at Pontefract yesterday and boosted his profits to more than 15 points from just three bets on the day with a power place bet on Mabo (w/p 2ND 11-2) at Wolverhampton. Mabo looked all over the winner at long odds-on until mugged near the line, so a good call, too, for BETDAQ back and lay.
LOOK OUT FOR THE LAUNCH OF DAQMAN’S DOUBLE-VALUE BET: The Irish Guineas weekend starts tomorrow and Daqman could be looking to maximise the value on BETDAQ with his bull’s-eye bets and a new one, the Double-Value Bet, in which he, literally, backs his judgment with a way to boost his profit with the same stake. See: Play the real ‘Price is Right.’
PLAY THE REAL ‘PRICE IS RIGHT’
Value is when odds are bigger than they should be. The snag is that YOU have to decide what they should be. You have to work at it until you get the knack.
Then you have to be disciplined and bet ONLY when you think the odds are in your favour.
Check out How To Price Up A Market on this site. Stick to conditions races to begin with, where the ratings reveal which horses you should concentrate on.
Even then, at this time of year, you have the problem that three-year-olds can improve above their rating, fillies dramatically so.
If you are right often enough in your choice of odds as ‘too big’, then you will win in the long run because you have ‘created’ a bigger margin as cover for your losers because, in effect, you will be paid more for your winners.
Widen that margin still further! Make it even bigger as soon as you can trust yourself and your prices.
Example: you think a horse is a 5-1 chance, and you want to back it to win 100 points (20 win).
But, hey, there are odds or offers of 11.0. You need only bet 10 points – not 20 – to achieve your 100.
Not a bit of it. Trust yourself. If you are confident you’ve got the price right, stick to your bet, which was 20 points. Now, if the horse wins, you have 200 instead of 100. You’ve doubled your money for the same stake.
Try to get the price right, playing with small stakes to begin with. Then keep a record of which races you do well in. Trust yourself in those races and bet the odds, not the horse; at your stake, not the layers.
WHAT’S IT ALL ABOUT, ALFIE?
⭕ 2.10 Newbury Five meetings today including Gowran Park in Ireland and it’s very much normal service resumed but it’s a little bit quantity over quality today with the only Listed race of the day coming later at Belmont Park.
The strategy remains the same as yesterday in trying to find some low stake value bets on BETDAQ and Newbury seems the obvious calling point as the Berkshire track stage their first meeting since lockdown.
In truth, the opening class 5 handicap isn’t a great race by course standards but Alfie Solomons caught my eye for trainer Amanda Perrett who sent out a 40/1 winner with Tinto at Newmarket last week.
‘Alifie’ is sliding down the handicap at a rapid rate. From a career high of 92 in 2018 to today’s tempter of 70. His career strike rate of 1-21 hardly inspires confidence but as well as the plunge down the weights he makes his first start on turf today for the Perrett yard and has generally raced at a much higher level than this.
Less than 12 months ago he was a close up eighth (beaten just three lengths) in a class 2 handicap over this trip at Newmarket – so you can see the angle in.
The booking of Oisin Murphy is obviously interesting for current BETDAQ favourite Global Hope and Gay Kelleway’s runner has the benefit of a run at Yarmouth last week but the stable are 0-9 since resumption and Global Hope has been a little weak in early trading.
SNIPER SET TO ATTACK
⭕ 2.20 Beverley Modular Magic looks opposable under a penalty for a narrow Redcar win on debut. Especially so that the David Barron stable are 0-11.
Silver Sniper has the benefit of a recent spin at Newcastle on the first day back and made a pleasing enough debut in fourth – despite starting at 80/1.
He should improve greatly for that and showed plenty of speed that day so hopefully won’t mind the drop back to the minimum.
I TELL YOU ABOUT WILLIAM
⭕ 4.45 Newbury The case for Involved is obvious after his big run at Newmarket last week when a neck second to Inclyne.
Off the same mark and with the benefit of a run, he should prove hard to beat but odds on in a handicap – DAQMAN is NOT involved.
I’ll take a chance on Tell William staying this trip. The Marcus Tregoning trained runner has been staying on well at Bath in his most recent starts over a mile and still looks quite progressive.
Megan Nicholls rode two cracking races to land a double at Pontefract yesterday and has good place chances here with Champs De Reves who is up 3lb for a Chelmsford win last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 2.5pts win ALFIE SOLOMONS (2.10 Newbury)
BET 3.4pts win (nap) SILVER SNIPER (2.20 Beverley)
BET 1.0pt win and 5.8pts place TELL WILLIAM (4.45 Newbury)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
