NOW IT’S NINE BANKERS IN A ROW: Miles To Memphis wins well and so nine bankers on the trot have scored, with 20 consecutive naps in the first four (11111412313111141121), FOURTEEN of them winners. The bankers, showing a total profit of 86 points, have been:
WON 4-6 BRAVO ZOLO
WON 1-4 GERMANY CALLING
WON 4-11 HIGH SECRET
WON 4-6 CONVEY
WON 5-6 SOUTHFIELD THEATRE
WON 8-13 SHAKOPEE
WON 3-10 SARSTED
WON 2-11 THE NEW ONE
WON 4-9 MILES TO MEMPHIS
NUMBER 10 AT THE WEEKEND? Daqman is looking at the big Doncaster meeting (Friday-Saturday) for a 10th banker but also has the same two days at Newbury to choose from plus the Saturday-Sunday fixtures at Aintree.
BULLISH ABOUT VALUE BETTING: Daqman also wants to add to the 211 points profit from his Bull’s-Eye Bets and, with the end of the Flat looming, will be hoping to extend his value-tipping lead over Pricewise, currently 67-31 (overall 106-43).
‘ELM’ STANDS TALL IN THE TROPHY
You should dutch ‘Elm’ with O’Brien. That’s the stats approach to betting on the Racing Post Trophy, since the history of the race dictates that you need a Group winner or an unbeaten Irish colt.
Elm Park is the one with Group status already, improving on a Listed success at Salisbury to take the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket and looking a strong favourite for Saturday.
Salisbury completed a hat-trick on three different surfaces – soft, good and good to firm – and prompted the epithet from his jockey: ‘He’s something special!’
He doesn’t have to be any more special than that against the exposed horses in the Trophy but what has beaten the Pattern players in the past is a colt from Ireland that is one from one.
This pointed to Aidan O’Brien’s Royal Navy Ship but the morning information is that Ballydoyle will rely on Jacobean and/or the Galileo colt Aloft.
Aloft isn’t one from one and his win at Newmarket earlier this month has been let down by the third and fifth, both placed without winning in maidens since.
So the more likely mount for Joseph O’Brien is Jacobean, a High Chaparral, though otherwise not well related. It will, however, be seen as significant that Jacobean was favourite when he ran second to Royal Navy Ship at The Curragh 13 days ago.
The Guineas and Derby entry was very green that day and stayed out the back for most of the race (O’Brien blamed the draw). Has seemingly come on the proverbial bundle since that day.
Royal Navy Ship will now run at Leopardstown on Saturday in the Kilavullan Stakes, a Group 3 which O’Brien has won 10 times already, including with subsequent 2,000 Guineas winner, Footstepsinthesand (2004), the year after Grey Swallow (Irish Derby) took it.
But the Killavullan has not thrown up anything above Group-3 level in Europe in 10 years now, though one winner took a Grade-1 in America.
Saturday also features the Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury, won by Team Hannon three times in the last five years.
The race could yet produce a two-year-old for the future but seems to have lost the potency of its halcyon days when it threw up great names like Persian Bold, Kris, Kalaglow and Efisio (1977 to 1984).
MONTOYA TAKEN TO BEAT THE ‘BOUNCE’
The changing of the season is certainly upon us. Just witness this afternoon: all four meetings are over the jumps; at Carlisle, Ludlow, Southwell and Thurles. Flat fans need to wait for Kempton this evening for an eight-race card beginning at 5.40.
This week the BHA have moved to reduce small field sizes which are disliked by punters. A declining horse population set against an increase in races over the last six years has inevitably led to smaller fields and in a series of initiatives it looks highly unlikely we’ll see races of fewer than six runners next Flat season.
Some all-weather and chase races are to be scrapped altogether, and some may be cancelled at declaration stage if not attracting enough entries.
The maximum number of races on a card will be reduced to seven from the current eight, although courses will still be able to divide
CARLISLE Be careful when it comes to the ‘bounce factor’ when a horse suddenly returns to form after a lay-off. But change of stable, big change in distance or going, application of headgear, all are legitimate reasons for a change of form.
I think that’s the case with Montoya’s Son in the 2.50 at Carlisle who scored easily at Sedgefield last time out on his first start for Keith Dalgleish after losing his way in Ireland. So a change of country!
He was eased down at Sedgefield, and didn’t have anything like the hard race that usually prompts a ‘bounce.’
He has a 7lb penalty but will be heading up 10lb in the handicap after today so is still ‘well in’ and unquestionably well treated on some of his earlier career form.
LUDLOW Bob Will has been dropped 3lb by the handicapper since finishing a nine-lengths second to Georgian King at Towcester but that looked in a better race and with the most experienced rider onboard today can land the 4.50.
Kings Apollo is prominent in the BETDAQ market and has defied a lengthy absence to win before but a bigger concern is his lack of experience over fences.
KEMPTON Mark Johnston’s yard seems to be under some kind of spell at the moment and can’t find a winner for love nor money.
His only runner today is debutant Aqdaar in the 7.40 but I think the two with experience are likely to fight out the finish ,British Art and Lighning Charlie.
Preference is for British Art who was a 33-1 chance when chasing home the odds-on Epithet at Newmarket last time out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets staked to win 20 points)
BET 12.5pts win (nap) MONTOYA’S SON (2.50 Carlisle)
BET 12.5pts win BOB WILL (4.50 Ludlow)
BET 4pts win BRITISH ART (7.40 Kempton)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
