KING GEORGE: A NEW DYNASTY OVER THE JUMPS: Daqman dares declare for Dynaste in the big race of the day, the King George, and reckons that history dictates that success over Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti today will set him up for the Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March.
THE NAP IS IN THE ROWLAND MEYRICK: Daqman, who landed his nap on Sunday with Goodtoknow (WON 5-2), to make it six out of 10 , today goes to Wetherby for his best bet of the day in another big race, the Rowland Meyrick.
DAQMAN’S 9-2 UP OVER PRICEWISE: Just those two races, the King George and the Rowland Meytick, form the theatre of the continued clash of Daqman and Pricewise in the hunt for value. Daqman is 9-2 up in the last month since he challenged the Racing Post tipster.
12.50 and 1.25 Kempton This is usually Nicky Henderson’s day. He goes for a four-timer in the Christmas Hurdle later on, bids for a hat-trick in the opening novice hurdle (12.50) with Vaniteux, 3.5 on BETDAQ this morning, and his form figures in the novice chase (1.25) over the last six seasons are 11-1P1. He has Ericht in that one at 4.3.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I shall back the Henderson horses, stop at a winner, but with a small-stakes double in case both win. So I need 8 points or so on Vaniteux to win 20 but 9 points on Ericht – both rough figures from over my cornflakes – to cover the Vaniteux loss if Ericht is the only winner.
1.45 Wetherby (Rowland Meyrick Chase) With one exception – Cape Tribulation last season – there have been no winners in the decade carrying more than 11st 2lb.
Cape Tribulation is 8lb higher now and ran a stinker last time out, though he did the same thing over the very course and distance of today’s race before winning it on heavy ground a year ago.
He followed up – also on heavy – by winning the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham and ran fifth in the Gold Cup, so today’s mark is not out of the question.
Wayward Prince was second in the Charlie Hall here but is up in the weights and will not be at his best giving weight away on bad ground. Junior is unreliable and the National winner, Auroras Encore, is starting back on the long road to Liverpool.
Cloudy Too was a useful novice in the Spring, including success at Haydock on heavy, and has been dropped back close to his winning mark after running in the Hennessy. But there are two more improvers in Sydney Paget and Nuts N Bolts.
They won on the same day at Haydock a month ago, and both were expected to go for Saturday’s Welsh National but the handicapper has clouted Sydney, raising him a pound short of a stone for scoring in a class 2m at Haydock, while Nuts N Bolts 9lb raise was from a grade-lower and over half a mile further than today.
There’s 15 minutes or so here that could change the fortunes of the Lucinda Russell yard since, almost immediately after Nuts N Bolts, she runs Green Flag in the Feltham at Kempton.
The same stable’s Tap Night ran second to Cloudy Too at Carlisle recently so she has a good line to that one, while Sydney Paget is about 12lb behind Cloudy Too on Spring form, though today’s stamina test will suit better.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Trainer Don McCain has the Grand National in mind for Sydney Paget (3.9 on BETDAQ this morning), who must improve again to figure in this. Nuts and Bolts (offered at 5.5) is a fine jumper but he has even more class climbing to do. So I just prefer Cloudy Too (4.1), though mindful that one of the two others could take another step forward and that both look stayers in the making.
Cloudy Too has won only over shorter but running him in the Hennessy suggests that the stable reckon he can get all of today’s trip, and he will like the ground.
2.00 Kempton (Feltham Novices’ Chase) This race has produced Long Run, Grands Crus and Dynaste in the last three years, and Just A Par will be odds on to join its illustrious roll of honour.
But seven weeks ago, when the horse won at Newbury, Paul Nicholls didn’t seem him as ‘much of a Feltham type, more the Aon.’ Will he get a proper stamina test in a tactical race of five runners today?
Third Intention, well beaten by Just A Par at Newbury, and previously placed behind Dynaste, Wonderful Charm and Captain Conan, was thought ‘too flambuoyant’ for 3m, by trainer Colin Tizzard.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: In view of these stable U-turns by Tizzard and Nicholls, we might chance a pound on the progressive Green Flag, unbeaten over fences and out of the first two only once in 13 starts.
This time we have the stable on our side. ‘Very Impressive’, he’s a ‘phenomenal jumper’ and I put him up in my Racing Post stable tour as best in the yard. That’s Lucinda Russell.
2.10 Market Rasen (Lincolnshire National) The deeper the ground and the further they go, Merlin’s Wish will be in his element, lightly raced and just come to form.
But Musical Wedge, third in the Devon National, has twice powered to success up the Towcester hill, and Orange Nassau was only just pipped over today’s trip earlier in the month.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Such is the generosity of BETDAQ layers, I could take 5.7 Musical Wedge (that’s big) this morning and a saver on the 2.55 offers about Merlin’s Wish.
2.35 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Another Nicky Henderson race: he’s on a four-timer after Binocular (2) and Darlan. Go Native off 164 is the best recent winner among the young pretenders, since Binocular was already a Champion Hurdler and was winning at the age of seven, off 164 and 171.
Officially, Henderson’s My Tent Or Yours has 7lb to make up on The New One today, as they start today 167-160, with The New One seemingly already right up to the class of winning this.
The question marks, after his saunter over Rock On Ruby and subsequent defeat of Zarkandar in the International, is the change of ground and whether this comes too soon after the International (December 14).
The New One was beaten in both starts that came quickly after success: stopped by At Fishers Cross (January 26) after winning at Warwick (January 12) and then second to Zarkandar at Aintree (April 4) after winning at the Cheltenham Festival (March 13).
The New One has won on soft but that Fishers Cross defeat was on heavy. The same applies to My Tent Or Yours, who beat Grumeti five-and-a-half lengths in the Fighting Fifth.
Grumeti is about 12lb better than Sametegal and 10lb better than Court Minstrel on Scottish Champion Hurdle form, but Court Minstrel is 24 lengths inferior to The New One , if the International is any guide.
The form is saying that The New One’s margin over My Tent Or Yours is about right – a bit more if anything – and it all comes down to the ground and the timing of the race.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Pass. I’ll watch. But, on a day like today, why not put both of them in my Daq Multiples with my big-race bets at Wetherby and Kempton.
3.10 Kempton (King George V1 Chase) We’ve had only three winners of this in the recent history of the race – Kicking King, Kauto Star and Long Run – and all first time winners are young pretenfers of six or seven years old.
That suggests a rerun of the Lancashire Chase at Haydock a month back when the 1-2-3 beat Long Run a country mile into fourth. The winner that day, Cue Card, won’t like this afternoon’s ground and the third horse home, Silviniaco Conti, has become disappointing.
The one that split them, in second, was Dynaste – a tasty 5.3 on BETDAQ as I write – who won the Mildmay on good ground but that followed his runaway win in the Feltham here on heavy.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I was a Silviniaco man until he fell in the Gold Cup. I supported him again at Aintree (only third) and again on his reappearance when, notably, he kept wide, searching for better ground.
He’ll need to go out on to the ambulance path to get anything better today and with Cue Card also inconvenienced by the rain, I reckon Dynaste might come out on top.
The Pipes didn’t really know what they had, despite his Jewson second and Mildmay win, and were always looking to this season. But Dynaste ran the race of his life in the big league first time when he divided Cue Card and Silviniaco.
He was ridden nervously and he was ridden as a horse making his reappearance. I think it will be differenty and we will see an even better Dynaste today, well aware that the winner of this is often the Gold Cup winner.
If I had to bet for Cheltenham this morning, I would not expect Cue Card to get the trip, and I would have the same reservations about Silviniaco Conti. So I’m a Dynaste man now until results prove otherwise.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 8pts win VANITEUX (1.250 Kempton), if lose 9pts win ERICHT (1.25 Kempton) and 1pt win double the two.
BET 6.5pts win (nap) CLOUDY TOO (1.45 Wetherby)
BET 5pts win GREEN FLAG (2.00 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win MUSICAL WEDGE and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) MERLIN’S WISH (2.10 Market Rasen)
BET 4.5pts win DYNASTE (3.10 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES; 2pts win double Cloudy Too (1.45 Wetherby) and Dynaste (3.10 Kempton) plus two 1pt win trebles the same two with both The New One and My Tent Or Yours (2.35 Kempton)
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