BANKER IN FIVE WINNING BETS: Daqman was white hot yesterday, all across the board and at four different meetings, AW Flat and jumps. Banker, big bet, small bet, lays. In time order, they were:
WON 2-1 Southfield Royale
WON 11-2 Volio Vincente
WON (lay) 3rd Dominandros
WON 4-5 Smiles For Miles (banker)
WON (lay) 3rd Spinaminnie
COUNT ON HIM: FOUR, FIVE, SIX! It was the third time in five days that the reliable Daqman has hit four or more winning bets in one session, after landing a total of 10 winners over the weekend. His nap-happy success sequences have been:
SIX on Saturday (banker nap won 4-6)
FOUR on Sunday (nap won 11-10)
FIVE on Wednesday (banker nap won 4-5)
DAQMAN HAS HENNESSY TOUCH: This morning, Daqman, who picked the 20-1 winner last year, backs up his Hennessy Gold Cup ABC guide of yesterday’s column, going for a touch with a bet on the best value from the list. But he snubs the opening day of Newbury as a ‘poor show’, and worries about the ground limit his confidence this week.
32.0 POSITION IS THE OPENING APPROACH
Approach last year’s winner with caution. The exchange markets would have it that Triolo d’Alene is not at the office for a double bid in Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup. BETDAQ offers of 80.0 were lying untouched in the orange this morning.
For that reason, and his fronting my ABC Guide to the race yesterday, I’m taking 32.0 about his Nicky Henderson stablemate Hadrian’s Approach to win 50 points, assuming that Barry Geraghty will ride.
‘Hadrian’ is as low as 14-1 with half a dozen bookies listed in Oddschecker this morning. He jumped out of heavy ground when runner-up to Dynaste in the Feltham as a novice.
Other ominous Hennessy anomalies include Black Thunder, bookmaker offered as short as 14-1 but out to 58.0 on BETDAQ. Similarly, 14-1 What A Warrior is 56.0
Jonjo O’Neill fans will smile to see Merry King at 18.0, five points in front of the firm in the know, Ladbrokes. Tony McCoy rides.
GROUND NOT TO BLAME FOR POOR CARD
What’s the point of this poor show? The heavy ground will be blamed for the card cutting up, but this afternoon’s first day of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury had a similarly uninspiring look last year on a sounder surface.
Today’s declared runners per race are 5, 5, 7, 3, 8, 8, 4. Last year, on good to soft, it was 4, 6, 14, 5, 5, 8, 6. Not a lot of difference, excepting the handicap hurdle (1.35), for which the field has halved.
Take that race out of the equation, and the day is only one short of last year’s total. Shumthing wrong shumwhere, race-planners!
Another example of a strong two-day meeting being turned into a weak-start three-day festival. A waste of prizemoney. A poor advert. And a mundane day for punters and racegoers.
When the little man with the yellow flag gets it wrong, it’s plain to see; but semaphores about race-planning are continually left blowing in the wind.
KING NOVICE IS A STARK STAND-OUT
12.25 Newbury This opener has not a Henderson, a Hobbs, a Nicholls or a Pipe. What it has got is a long-odds-on favourite, giving weight all round, more than a stone to one horse.
But the equaliser is a certain A P McCoy, back in business yesterday with one ride, one winner. The ‘jolly’, Jollyalan, is one of only two to get the McCoy treatment this afternoon.
Winner of a bumper on heavy, Capilla made a good start to the season at Ffos Las, and Lanceur landed a conditions race on bad ground on the Flat at Maisons.
You can try a long-range pot at the favourite, with one of those – Capilla 7.8 and Lanceur 11.0 as I write – but really there is no colour in the race. Jollyallan is a lonesome black ball, hovering over the pocket.
1.00 Newbury The gutsy Woodford County jumps out of the mud and carried today’s set weight to victory on heavy in a hurdles race at Uttoxeter.
In fact, he’s claimed off today in this amateurs’ handicap so will pag the same amount off 125 as the 118-rated Ruapehu, absent 222 days and with his best form on a sounder surface.
Susquehanna River has been kept to a similar good, good-to-soft sorts of surfaces for 11 out of a dozen races now, and refused in the only exception, run on soft.
But Itoldyou has had a run back, has been winner of three of these small-field races, and may be the danger to Woodford County, though I think the favourite just about backable at around 2-1.
1.35 Newbury For the most part, unexposed novices in the mud, four of them separated by 1.85 points in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Try Russian roulette instead. Less of a headache.
If the pistol was to my own head, I’d opt for Vazaro Delafayette in first-time blinkers. Working well at home, that’s the kind of wake-up call he needs.
2.10 Newbury Another likely long-odds-on shot in Southfield Theatre but with one of potential, Carraig Mor, expected to love the soft-heavy ground.
However, Carraig Mor, an Old Vic, suggested at Exeter (say that quickly, while sucking a polo mint) that he needs all of 3m, and the front-running Southfield Theatre will probably get away from him.
2.45 Newbury Another bunch of novices, this time with fences to jump out of the sticky ground. But the market is clear about this one.
The BETDAQ orange says that Ned Stark has only Ceasar Milan to beat (spellcheck, Paul?), and the Nicholls may need the race and is easy to back at 5.1, as I write. A bit more confidence, Ditcheat fans! It’ll help our price.
3.15 Newbury (Gerry Feilden Hurdle) It’s fingers crossed for Hadrian’s Approach (we’ve got a price and can easily consume the small stake with the bull’s-eye bets wallet well over 200 in credit). But Nicky Henderson has always hated bad ground for his horses.
He is notably absent all day today until this one, taking out all bar L’Ami Serge, suggesting that he is a friend of the soft terrain.
But, if you fancy Willie Mullins to win with one of his pair, you’ll have to dutch at an even worse price, with Daneking 5.6 and Wicklow Brave 5.9 as I write.
Past results tell us that, if Ditcheat is to win it with Le Mercurey off 11st 10lb, this Auteuil heavy-ground winner (twice) will need to be an Afsoun or a Rock On Ruby, third and first in their subsequent Champion Hurdles.
Le Mercurey is the apple of Paul Nicholls’ eye, one of the plum horses in the yard, and all that potential fruitfulness. But the great man seems more intent on ‘another year’ for fences with this one, rather than ‘get at him’ over hurdles this season.
Le Mercurey is only four but Nicky Henderson has won this twice with four-year-olds. That takes us neatly back to L’Ami Serge, a ‘very exciting’ Guillaume Macaire import.
I don’t think he’d be risked today if Nicky didn’t think he was in hot form, could handle the conditions and has Cheltenham in his DNA. Nap.
IT’S A DAY FOR YOUR DAQ MULTIPLES..
DAQMAN’S BETS
SECOND DIVISION: Interesting novices but a tough betting day. As far as punting value goes, I’m relegating the Newbury card to my second division of bets today, with only the Gerry Feilden a race you can invest in and follow up with a later trade.
Like yesterday, I’ve staked according to the strength of the bet, from 1 point to 10 points. On a day like this, I would put my best guesses with shorter prices in some Daq Multiples.
BET 5pts win WOODFORD COUNTY (1.00 Newbury)
BET 6pts win NED STARK (2.45 Newbury)
LAY Le Mercurey and BET 7pts win (nap) L’AMI SERGE (3.15 Newbury)
PLACE LAY Albert Herring (4.25 Kempton)
PLACE LAY: Dangerous Age (7.25 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Jollyallan (12.25 Newbury), Southfield Theatre (2.10 Newbury), Ned Stark (2.45 Newbury) and L’Ami Serge (3.15 Newbury)
ANTE-POST: BULL’S-EYE BET: 1.6pts win HADRIAN’S APPROACH (Hennessy Gold Cup, Saturday)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£30 FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
