HONEST RUN FROM OUTSIDER OF THE DAY AT 14-1: After his banker was turned over by a Pipe runaway yesterday, Daqman’s three returns were not enough to pay for the day. They were Swehan (WON 7-2) and Russian Ice (3rd 9-1 from 14.0 on BETDAQ) in BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton, and outsider-of-the-day Honest John (3rd 14-1) at Doncaster.
SUN CAN SHINE IN TODAY’S NORTHERN NATIONAL: Daqman today analyses a tricky contest at Catterick for the North Yorkshire Grand National and comes up with Sun Cloud as one of two bets in the race.
WHAT’S THE BUZZ ABOUT TONY McCOY? As ever, Daqman gets behind the bare facts of the day’s racing and asks why the champion jockey, whose mounts at Catterick include Getabuzz, has gone 16 consecutive rides without a winner?
McCoy missing strike? Whatever next! Did the great A P succumb to the Christmas duff? He hasn’t had a winner in the New Year with 16 consecutive losers.
Worse, he’s had 10 in the frame without winning. Any other jock missing the strike like that might be regarded as weak in a finish, particularly since two of them were defeats by less than a length.
When Tony hangs up his boots today, you heard it here first, ok! But, seriously, he seems to be underperforming until you look more closely for the reasons why.
You find that trainer Jonjo O’Neill, for whom he is so closely linked, as first jockey to J P McManus, hit a festive brick wall, with a massive 30 consecutive losers since Boxing Day, 10 of them, including the last seven straight losers, partnered by A P.
It doesn’t give punters much hope for Get Back In Line (Lanzarote Hurdle) and Alfie Sherrin (Warwick Classic) in Saturday’s big races.
McCoy opens at Catterick today with Magic Skyline (12.35), who has both won well and flopped badly. We don’t know what to expect. Nor do we know what lurks among the unexposed dark horses, all getting 7lb from her.
One trainer who is in form is Tim Easterby, with two winners and two seconds from six starters still standing since Boxing Day.
First-time blinkers should help Tim’s McCoy mount Getabuzz, who gave Catcher Star a Christmas present when allowing himself to be caught on the line at Wetherby on Boxing Day.
To be fair to Getabuzz (1.05), he was giving 21lb to the winner in soft ground but, on the other hand, he’s gone 17 races without success.
Johnny Og is back up in trip but my vote goes to better-than-the-bare-form Sealous Scout, strongly supported at 3.1 on BETDAQ this morning.
The handicapper hit Alderbrook Lad (1.35) 9lb for a 19f win on today’s course on the first day of the year and trainer Micky Hammond sidesteps 2lb of it by running him quickly under a 7lb penalty and claiming off him again.
We’ve seen such a ploy fail a lot lately.
The top two also have chase experience but Dartford Warbler has been beaten a total of 96 lengths in three such starts, so I’m inclined toward McCoy’s mount, Suprise Vendor (offers of 4.1), suggesting that A P can seize the race, as when the gelding stretched out a field at Bangor in November.
Micky Hammond, meanwhile, is two from two, both with four-year-olds, in the novices’ hurdle (2.05), so maybe his Khelac, at the same age, isn’t the forlorn hope that the betting would suggest (19.5 on BETDAQ this morning).
2.35 Catterick (North Yorkshire Grand National) The stats are not all that they seem in this. They say that every one of seven runnings of the race have been won from below 11st.
But, taking the last two seasons alone, most of the runners were in that group, 15 out of 26 racing with 10st 13lb or less. Today there’s just two.
The Thirsty Bricky usually runs short of three miles, and his heyday was over 2m or so in 2012. His only venture over longer distances resulted in a 74-lengths defeat in the Durham National. He was beaten the equivalent of 13 lengths by Sun Cloud in December.
So, if there is to be a sub-11st winner, it must be a repeat success for Chac Du Cadran, though he is not, publicly, in the same form as when he scored last year at this time.
Sun Cloud is unexposed over a marathon trip and has run only four chases in his life but is just now getting his jumping together, according to trainer Malcolm Jefferson.
The softer the better and the further the better for Merlin’s Wish, looking for a hat-trick here after winning in both November and December, but up a total of 21lb. It’s no longer a wave of Merlin’s wand. That would be wishful thinking.
After a tremendous run in the Spring of last year – two chase wins and one over hurdles – Green Wizard shot up 17lb, but has had 6lb remission for three defeats in a row in November and is unexposed over a marathon trip.
Wellforth’s best run after coming from Ireland 15 months ago was at Haydock on heavy last time (3m 4f) but his narrow defeat by Across The Bay that day has cost him a 5lb rise, a bit harsh considering that he ran to their ratings with the third horse, Pete The Feat.
Carrigeen Lechuga has been given no help by the handicapper after two quick wins in February of 2012, but he’s probably right to be guarded, if December’s close fourth at Fairyhouse is any guide.
Mister Marker also gets no respite after his third in last April’s Scottish Grand National but acts on any going and is usually in at the finish.
Diamond Harry is 30lb lower than his good old days, when he won the Hennessy. He has never regained that form but has not been disgraced, switched to the cross-country discipline.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The handicapper has kindly dropped Chac Du Cadran (5.6 on BETDAQ as I write)down in the weights to within 3lb of last year’s winning mark, and he’s no doubt been trained with this race in mind.
Sun Cloud (offers of 6.4), by the same sire as Cloudy Lane and related to Cab On Target, who won 20 races in the 1990s, could be the improver here, just struck form and only now turned seven.
He is a hurdles winner at 3m 1f, suggesting that he needs all of today’s marathon trip as a chaser.
Merlin’s Wish (have two tough races and the handicapper got to him?) and Mister Marker (high in the weights) are likely to reach the frame without winning: 1 Chac Du Cadran, 2 Sun Cloud, 3 Merlin’s Wish.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9.5pts win SEALOUS SCOUT (1.05 Catterick)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) SUPRISE VENDOR (1.35 Catterick)
BET 1.1pt win and place (Outsider Of The Day) KHELAC (2.05 Catterick)
BET 4.4pts win CHAC DU CADRAN and 3.7pts win SUN CLOUD (2.35 Catterick)
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