IRISH FORM NAP: Daqman goes to Punchestown for his nap, because the form book tells him this year and last to take a risk against the favourite.
CHAMPION SHOWDOWN: Daqman has to put his money where his mouth is on Saturday, now that his champion nominee is challenged by the Arc winner.
FOUND! THE SATURDAY MATCH OF THE DAY
The final shoot-out. A stunning rematch between the Irish Champion Stakes one-two, Almanzor (pictured), and Arc winner Found will put Daqman’s form assessment to the toughest of tests on Saturday.
Daqman’s assertion yesterday that Almanzor should have run in, and won, the Arc – and the Epsom Derby, too – unknowingly heralded the match of the day on British Champions afternoon at Ascot, with Found now declared against him.
1.25 Ascot, Saturday (Long Distance Cup) Ireland has won four of the last five renewals of this, none of them favourite.
An indication of the topsy-turvy form at this time of year is in the 2014 and 2015 results. Forgotten Rules had Flying Officer behind in sixth in 2014, but Flying Officer had Forgotten Rules back in eighth in 2015.
2.00 Ascot, Saturday (Champions Sprint) Eight out of 10 winners were aged three or four; with three-year-olds scoring 50% in the decade.
Twilight Son and The Tin Man were second and fourth a year ago. Jack Dexter’s form in the race is 230.
Three-year-olds had a spell of winning four out of five (2006-10), and may be represented by Jimmy Two Times, Shalaa and Quiet Reflection, winners of a total of 17 races.
In the last five years of big fields, the results by draw have stalls 12 and 14 winning two each and being placed four times apiece! In four of the five years, stalls 12 to 20 filled 10 of the 12 places.
2.35 Ascot, Saturday (Fillies And Mares) Not a single winning outright favourite in eight years, in which three-year-olds lead older horses 5-3.
Last year’s one-two, Simple Verse and Journey, are due to clash again but five others have the same rating or better this time in a stronger field.
3.10 Ascot, Saturday (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes) Three-year-olds are 7-3 up on older horses, with Aidan O’Brien saddling three winners in the decade, which has seen five favourites score and zero success at odds bigger than 11-2 SP.
3.45 Ascot, Saturday (Champion Stakes) Fascinating Rock last year beat Found and Jack Hobbs at 10-1 and only power favourites Frankel and New Approach have intervened for backers in a series of surprises from 11-4 to 14-1.
The only winning English-based stable with a runner on Saturday is Saeed Bin Suroor. France (3) and Ireland (2) have the best record.
Whether run at Newmarket or Ascot, all 10 winners in the decade have come from stalls 1 to 8, which rubber-stamps the stats for draw bias on turning tracks.
4.25 Ascot, Saturday (Balmoral Handicap) Five–year-olds have won both runnings of this, with stalls 10, 12 (two) and 13 (two) supplying five of the six places.
Bronze Angel (winner), Gm Hopkins (second), Master The World (third) Donncha (fourth) are among Saturday’s probables to have placed already in this event.
THE FORM BOOK SAYS YOU CAN TAKE A RISK
1.30 Brighton Saeed Bin Suroor has a 44% strike rate on the Sussex seaside course and he has champion jockey elect aboard his only runner, Gmaash, who was given a recent debut run on the AW.
Jim Crowley rides. Brighton is Crowley’s top turf track with a near-25% strike rate
4.15 Brighton Horses aged three and four only – not a single older horse – have won this specialist 7f event in the decade. One of only six starters to qualify today is Mockinbird.
I’ll take a chance that the visor helps her today. She might have won on Epsom a couple of starts back but for getting unbalanced on the camber.
Mockinbird can pull hard, so the drop back in trip (faster pace; option to go forward) is also in her favour. The 9.8 gift offer from BETDAQ orange layers is the clincher.
4.30 Punchestown Gordon Elliott just missed a win for his Gigginstown patrons when Lord Scoundrel fell two out when in contention for the Kerry National last month.
Clarcam finished 71 lengths behind the winner that day, and Federici disappointed in the Munster National at the weekend.
With Mouse Morris (Smashing, Dromnea) currently out of form, the one to beat is Sadlers Risk, winner of last year’s Munster National and placed in the Galway Plate, won this year by Lord Scoundrel, himself.
On lines from the two Plate races – tenuous because a year apart – Sadlers Risk has a strong edge at today’s weights, getting 6lb from Lord Scoundrel.
But more collateral form from two races this year – through a horse called Alechi Inois – again gives Sadler’s Risk the advantage, particularly on a sound surface, as forecast today.
I say ‘as forecast’ because there was a prediction for morning showers. I love the Racing Post’s ‘Rain showers forecast’.. hopefully not yet snow showers and really hopefully not meteor showers!
Trainer Henry de Bromhead had a winner at Punchestown yesterday, and, also bearing in mind that Lord Scoundrel may need a confidence reviver after the Listowel fall, I’m banking on Sadlers Risk, despite Gordon Elliott’s going for a sixth consecutive win in the race.
6.20 Chelmsford Luca Cumani and Adam Kirby have a 50% strike rate on this track. They team up with Glorious Rocket, a big odds (10.5 on BETDAQ) alternative to the hot favourite, Dubai One, for Saeed Bin Suroor . That’s where I came in.
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 for strength)
BET 8pts win GMAASH (1.30 Brighton)
BET 3pts win and place MOCKINBIRD (4.15 Brighton)
BET 9pts win (nap) SADLER’S RISK (4.30 Punchestown)
BET 2pts win and place GLORIOUS ROCKET, and 5pts win (stake saver) DUBAI ONE (6.20 Chelmsford)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
