THE LION OF TIPSTERS HAS DONE IT AGAIN: BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman goes for a hat-trick of naps today after odds-against best bets scored among three winners out of six in two days (50% strike rate). He’s had winners at Kempton, Sedgefield and Southwell as he’s scoured the length of the country for success.
WON 5-4 LION TOWER (Wednesday nap)
WON 13-8 EVANDER (Thursday nap)
WINNINGMOST WAY OF BACKING HORSES? IT’S YOUR OWN RULES! What are the winningmost ways of betting on the horses? Daqman is incensed by current articles in the Press about following favourites and what is, and what is not, value. He’ll be setting out a genuine view on how to bet to your own rules in a three-day article later this month. He whets your appetite today, putting you in the right frame of mind.
TOMORROW: 2020 VISION: Spring diary of a racing enthusiast. It’s all happening from next week.
FOLLOW YOUR OWN WINNING RULES
Bet ‘not to lose’. That’s a strange one for many punters, but it’s part of the mental kit and working practice of being a successful punter.
Here are more of Daqman’s hints in advance of a three-day investigation to be published in two weeks’ time into all the areas of offers and prices, favourites and value.
At a time when gambling is under the spotlight, he explores the best methods of enjoying a bet, staying solvent and having a genuine chance of winning money.
❓ Question 1: Are you a favourites man? What would you rather do?
A Back the favourite in a favourites’ race.
B Back the favourite in every race
C Never back the favourite
Answer: None of the above. Oppose unworthy favourites.
❓ Question 2: How do you win money?
A Follow the market every time
B Follow a trainer or jockey
C Follow the 200 experts
Answer: None of the above. Follow your instincts, and the discipline of your own winning rules.
❓ Question 3: How do I manage my betting?
A Try to win all the time
B Double up if I lose
C Reduce my stakes if I win/reduce my stakes if I lose (!)
Answer: None of the above. Bet value. Bet not to lose.
❓ Question 4: What is value?
A A horse at a big price
B A horse that’s always winning
C A horse in the headlines
Answer: None of the above. It’s the horse that’s undervalued, the one the crowd ignores.
IRISH RAIDER MIRABILIS TO MAKE IT 2-2
1.40 Chelmsford Joseph O’Brien and J P McManus (see below) both have a pretty full day at Thurles today, with eight runners between them, but raid England with one each. The O’Brien traveller is Calidus Mirabilis in this one at Chelmsford.
Meaning ‘wonderfully hot’, the Hot Streak three-year-old has Ben Curtis booked to make it 2-2 on AW, after a debut win at Dundalk.
Gelded and switched from the turf, Calidus Mirabilis has more to offer, stepped up in trip. First-time visors got Arabescoto home at Lingfield but will they work again today?
Nicola Currie is 2-3 riding for Jamie Osborne and, if American Dreamer is backed, it’s a real ‘heads up.’ He’s started 50-1, 33-1 and 66-1 in his three starts to get a handicap mark for this.
One that left Osborne’s, Love My Life, put in an improved performance for Martin Bosley on the last day and looks the danger to Calidus Mirabilis.
SHISHKIN CAN STAKE CHELTENHAM CLAIM
2.31 Huntingdon The Supreme or the Ballymore? Whether to go 2m or 2m 4f at Cheltenham is partly what this trip to Huntingdon is all about but, vitally, the novice Shishkin needs the experience.
It’s not so long ago that he threw such potential experience in the bin – far too keen – and didn’t get further than the second flight when odds on at Newbury. But he was no has-been.
Back to school and then back to the same course last month, this time at odds against, he looked more the finished article and smoothly went clear, despite the heavy ground.
Pacify won five in a row on summer ground but, though officially top rated here, has beaten nothing of note, and was himself beaten in the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham in November.
His runners-up at Stratford and Kempton have both been put in their place since and the second horse home when he won at Uttoxeter has scored only in small-field class-4 on the same course since.
Hang In There, who beat him in that Supreme Trial, was 41 lengths behind Fiddlerontheroof at Sandown in the Tolworth Hurdle.
ESTATE IS MANNING UP FOR THIS TRACK
2.55 Doncaster The only time the giant Manning Estate left the tight tracks of the South behind, he came up to Town Moor and won well.
He’s back over hurdles there today after a chase debut that is best forgotten, and looks a hidden horse at a price here. I took 8.4 on BETDAQ.
Five and six year olds are 6-8 and the only such other youngsters are Star of Rory (worth a try at this longer trip) and Prabeni: I’m not so keen at this distance and he’s trussed up with tongue-tie and cheekpieces, all spelling out hope rather than confidence.
Board of Trade was an uneasy favourite this morning after three placed runs in the visor. They are now left off after a break.
Merry Milan has tried both cheekpieces and a visor, and stablemate Vodka All The Way has had two wind ops.
TIME FOR TEA NOW HE’S BACK HURDLING
3.05 Huntingdon A class-2 handicap hurdle in which, though unbeaten, Tea Clipper is a stone behind the top weight, Virgilio. Does that make sense?
First of all, Virgilio, Messire Des Obeaux and Colonial Dreams are older than all bar one previous winner of the race. Not one winner has carried more than 11st 1lb.
In other words, young improvers usually get the upper hand, and Tea Clipper is surely one of them.
Over today’s CD, Tea Clipper gave weight and a beating to Magic Dancer, who ran second a year ago in the Grade-3 hurdle coming up at Newbury on Saturday.
Colonial Dream dotted up at Sandown last Spring and, if he’s settled down after running too freely on his return, is an obvious danger. Trained by Nicky Henderson, who also saddles Settie Hill, back from 601 days off.
Messire Des Obeaux was third in the Ballymore nearly three years back now, and Virgilio last ran in a hurdle race in April, 2016.
So, in fact, the top three we talked about have been absent a grand total of 2,080 days, yet another good reason to look low down in the weights.
If the ground turned heavy, maybe even Cristal Spirit could get involved but, as it stands, I’m happy to imagine Tea Clipper stepping up in grade over the longer trip.
A 3m Point winner, Tea Clipper is related to stamina toughnuts like Rathlin Rose, and by the same sire as such as Outlander and Fiddlerontheroof.
There was money for potential stayer Didtheyleaveuoutto, related to Denman down the dam’s side, and owned by J P McManus, who has a full day at Thurles with five runners.
The Gifford family have always done well at Huntingdon since way back and it’s Barry Geraghty’s only ride of the day, but the seven-year-old’s wind op will need to bounce him back to his 2018 form (four out of five).
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Chelmsford (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) CALIDUS MIRABILIS
2.55 Doncaster (win 20, win 10 place)
BET 2.75pts win and 5pts place MANNING ESTATE
3.05 Huntingdon (win 20)
BET 8pts win TEA CLIPPER
BET 2.5pts win (stakes saver) DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO
DAQ MULTIPLES
2 x 1pt win trebles
CALIDUS MIRABILIS (1.40 Chelmsford)
and
SHISHKIN (2.31 Huntingdon)
with both
TEA CLIPPER and DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO (3.05 Huntingdon)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
