NAP SECOND AT 7-1: LET’S TRY ANOTHER ONE AT 4-1 TONIGHT: Daqman yesterday opposed Paul Nicholls’ 11-8 favourite Eritage at Ludlow (unplaced) and napped his 7-1 second Breland d’As, who did nothing wrong, coming through nicely but not able to catch the all-the-way leader, Another Venture, off a teeth-grindingly slow pace (get on with it!). Lesson for Daqman and BETDAQ punters: there are favourites to lay, and winners from place only bets. More than one way to make it pay, but a 7-1 nap would have been nice. Today’s best bet is around 4-1 at Chelmsford this evening.
SUB SPECIAL FOR LOCAL TRAINER
⭕ 1.55 Hereford Venetia Williams is reliable at her local track with a 49% strike rate for horses in the first four; 20% winners. She is never going to match Paul Nicholls’ 65% and 28% at Wincanton but who could!
She has Subcontinent in with a fine chance here on hurdles form but yet to win over fences, though probably unlucky on chasing debut at Bangor when losing a shoe. I took 6.5 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
Tom Bellamy is 2-3 for Emma Lavelle here in this type of race, and Eclair Surf returns to the course and distance after a narrow novice defeat
Guy has top weight and won on better ground at Huntingdon. Golden Whisky, from Evan Williams stable in form, scored on heavy at Ffos Las but has yet to win away from there.
EXETER ONE-TWO ARE BIG OFFERS
⭕ 2.40 Exeter Cobolobo likes Exeter: form figures there of U2 don’t tell the whole story. He was going well in the Devon National when unseating, and he ran second with a welter burden of 12st dropped back to today’s trip the last day.
The heavy ground will bring his stamina into play and his concentration should be improved by cheekpieces.
He’s 7lb better off with Crossley Tender who was the impressive winner at Exeter that last day when favourite, with Cobolobo second, not fancied at 18-1.
Inisfree Lad is four out of five upped in grade with a 9lb rise but no penalty is yet added for his easy win at Hereford just five days back.
The snag is these horses diving under the radar have a modest win rate. Five days is no time to be refreshed for another day.
I could get 12.0 Crossley Tender and 14.5 Cobolobo on BETDAQ this morning, with Innisfree Lad looking modest value at 3.4 favourite.
LEGEND HAS UNEXPOSED PROFILE
⭕ 3.15 Exeter A big-field of class-5 chasers so, in theory, those with a bit of quality among the higher weights which have already been winners should dominate the outcome.
But top of the handicap Tudors Treasure is a Spring horse; all his success has come in March and April and his stable hasn’t had a winner for 289 days.
Jimmy and Bryony Frost scored at the last Exeter meeting but most of Jimmy’s stable is also running badly and recent runners have been starting at alarming odds (200-1 three times and 66-1 with their last four).
The Frosts’ Bogoss Du Perrett wins over further and on good ground so cannot be backed with confidence.
The reverse is true of Blue Monday, the favourite as I write. He’s been running poorly on good, but won at today’s level earlier in the year at Hereford and Wincanton on soft and heavy.
I’m going to try Lermoos Legend, quietly backed this morning, now stepping up in trip. Very well bred for it, and only a five-year-old, so unexposed at age and distance. I’ll bet you 7.8.
REAL DUDE LOOKS READY FOR THIS
⭕ 5.30 Chelmsford James Doyle is 3-5 teaming up with Roger Charlton, and Real Dude has that ‘three maidens and hit’ look about him, well drawn first time in a handicap.
Well backed this morning, there was 6.5 and 5.5, now 4.8 as I prepare to file this blog. I’ll mark Real Dude down as a 5.0 BETDAQ offer.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 Hereford (win 12)
BET 2pts win SUBCONTINENT
2.40 Exeter (win 20 each)
BET 1.75pts win CROSSLEY TENDER
BET 1.5pts win COBOLOBO
3.15 Exeter (win 12, win 10)
BET 3pts win LERMOOS LEGEND
BET 2pts win BLUE MONDAY
5.30 Chelmsford (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win REAL DUDE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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