‘MORE’ THAN ENOUGH TO WIN ON THE DAY: Where there’s muck there’s brass! Not at a Yorkshire track yesterday but at Leicester, where Daqman made another profit on the day from just the one winner.
WON 85/40 MUCKAMORE
DAQMAN BET BOOSTED BY BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman tries to build on big BETDAQ value today where he decides what odds he wants – in this case 5.0 – but backs the horse at the odds he’s offered, keeping the same stake (2.5) needed to win his usual fixed profit of 10 points. He’s on at 9.9, hoping to boost his profit to 22.25 points.
IRISH BIG-RACE QUEST: Fortune Cookies plus full form guide.
GREAT GOLD CUP PUZZLE
FORTUNE COOKIES
FIL DOR (Gordon Elliott) Spring Juvenile Hurdle, Leopardstown, Saturday; winner on good.
L’HOMME PRESSE (Venetia Williams) Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, Sandown, Saturday; winner on good and good to soft.
MOUNT IDA (Gordon Elliott) Irish Gold Cup, Leopardstown, Saturday; winner on yielding and good to soft.
🏆 GOLD CUP FORM GUIDE 🏆
⭕ 3.15 Leopardstown, Saturday (Irish Gold Cup) STATS: Since 1988 the only winners of double-figure age have been previously successful in the race. Last 10 years (trainers) W Mullins 4. Declared runners in ratings order (going yielding):
175 MINELLA INDO Won the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup (Frodon 5th, Kemboy last of nine), which is two furlongs further than this Irish version. But poor form at Leopardstown, including beaten favourite, 4th of 5 to Kemboy in this last year.
Third to Frodon in the Down Royal Champion Chase in October and pulled up in the King George at Kempton at Christmas in first-time cheekpieces.
166 FRODON 16 times winning chaser, including 2020 King George and 2021 Down Royal Champion Chase, when Minella Indo was third, Delta Work 4th, but only 5th to Minella Indo over further in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, and fourth at Kempton defending King George title on Boxing Day. He’s 10 now.
165 KEMBOY Won this last year (Delta Work 3rd, Minella Indo 4th) after being held by Delta Work in the race the previous year. Leopardstown form figures: 2142213.
Out of form elsewhere (Cheltenham Gold Cup three-year form U79) until returning to Leopardstown and third to Galvin (Delta Work 6th) in the Savills Chase between Christmas and New Year.
164 ASTERION FORLONGE Novice-chase successes solely at Punchestown; beaten at Leopardstown and Cheltenham. Failed to finish last twice, but just when joining leader, Allaho, unseated by bad mistake three out in the John Durkan; three lengths down at the last in the King George when overjumped.
164 JANIDIL Novice defeats of Longhouse Poet (Naas 2020) and Franco de Port (Fairyhouse last April), and more recent seconds to Energumene and Allaho, all stand up well; but only fifth in the Savills Chase in December, well behind Kemboy, stepped up to 3m chase for the first time.
161 DELTA WORK Beat Kemboy for this Irish Gold Cup in 2020 but only third last year and failed to place in other major events; rating slumped from 171 to 161.
160 CILAOS EMERY Fell at the first on sole chase start here in Dublin Chase two years back. Listed chase winner at Thurles (2m 6f) and Naas (2m).
157 CONFLATED Fourth to Janidil here as a novice; won the Foxrock at Navan comfortably in early December (2m 4f)..
152 MOUNT IDA Underrated Kim Muir (3m 2f) winning Yeats mare in her only chase against mixed sexes, beating Ladbrokes Trophy winner, Cloudy Glen.
Goes for hat-trick after Listed and Grade-3 wins and marked down for the Grand National. Gets 7lb today, putting her within reach of an upset.
THE FORCE BE WITH YOU
⭕ 3.00 Southwell today A sprint of decent quality for three-year-olds who still ‘could be anything.’ A CD winner back to prove himself is the 2.6 favourite Spring Is Sprung, suited by the new Tapeta last month.
But 15lb below him is Definitive Force, another Tapeta winner who had to show considerable verve and flexibility to score after being repeatedly blocked at Newcastle in November.
The Dandy Man colt has been given time since then and this pair, top and bottom of the handicap, are unexposed compared to such as Lucky Man, who is difficult to win with, and True Jem, who is also a CD winner here.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 9.9 Definitive Force was well over the top this morning. I priced him up at 5.0 and shall bet accordingly.
⭕ 4.10 Wincanton El Paso Wood went 34 lengths clear over a furlong further than today’s 3m 1f chase when striking form on the course two weeks back.
He is 10lb higher now and faces a pace horse in Jeremy Pass, who has been seven times in the frame, still standing, since winning a novice hurdle here in 2020, and beating a subsequent winner at Ascot.
That subsequent winner was Rapper, who takes him on again, though only a pound better off for four lengths, and Jeremy Pass is a big beast who can improve some more in cheekpieces for the first time. BETDAQ 4.7.
Didero Vallis has always preferred plenty of cut in the ground, while Faustinovick is the bridesmaid who never gets the bouquet – not so far anyway – with seven seconds and two thirds without winning.
Christmas In April has been twice a winner dropped back to around today’s trip, including on good ground, but he’s unreliable (blinkers tried now) and, surprisingly for a local horse, has never before raced at Wincanton.
CHIPS DOWN ON FISHCAKE
⭕ 4.40 Wincanton It’s worth an early pound at BETDAQ 4.0, and a late turf vigil on line before switching to Chelmsford, to watch Fishcake catch them all in the bumper.
The half-sister to the mighty Monkfish has Nicky Henderson and Nico De Boinville on a solo trip to Somerset after the stable’s across the cards double yesterday with Dusart (Exeter) and Patroclus (Leicester).
⭕ 6.00 Chelmsford Durdle Door’s Lingfield win in December was boosted by the runner-up last week, and she was probably unlucky not to make more of a race of it (hampered), fourth to Muscika over the CD here in November, and is better off with that one now.
But she could find Royal Pleasure hard to beat, with Sir Mark Prescott getting 100% from his horses, according to the Racing Post’s admirable RTF.
Sir Mark drops Royal Pleasure (BETDAQ 4.5) in class after the gelding’s wind op and resources the hood that got him into the frame over 7f.
Royal Pleasure’s being down in trip today means his draw might be helpful in that it gives him the chance to wait off the pace and engage his stamina in the closing stages.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.00 Southwell (win 22)
BET 2.5pts win DEFINITIVE FORCE
(staking at value 5.0 but taking 9.9)
BET 3pts win (to win 5) SPRING IS SPRUNG
4.10 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win JEREMY PASS
4.40 Wincanton (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win FISHCAKE
6.00 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 2.75pts win (nap) ROYAL PLEASURE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
