SHOCK RESULTS FROM GUINEAS RESEARCH: Daqman has been burning the midnight oil on his guides to the 2,000 Guineas (today) and the 1,000 (tomorrow). In the colt’s Classic he finds on the ratings alone that one horse is clear of the remainder. But needs a full ABC of stats for the 1,000 tomorrow, and the results are full of surprises.
TODAY: Daqman previews the two Grade 1’s on Punchestown’s Thursday card this evening but his NAP runs even later at Chelmsford.
CLEAR WINNER OF GUINEAS GUIDE
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Saturday (2,000 Guineas) Daqman looked at the ratings and found one colt clear of a cluster that are within a pound of each other. Group and key race results are given with collateral form.
122 NATIVE TRAIL (Charlie Appleby) Stable has won most of the trials, including the Craven Stakes with Native Trail in Classic style. Unbeaten in five starts, with a convincing double in the National Stakes and the Dewhurst as a two-year-old. Appleby has never won this race; previous Godolphin winners were trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2) and Jim Bolger.
115 COROEBUS (Charlie Appleby) A Dubawi, two out of three as a juvenile; not seen this year. Second in the Royal Lodge and won the Autumn Stakes, making him a CD winner like Native Trail.
115 LUXEMBOURG (Aidan O’Brien) Unbeaten Camelot colt, winner of the Beresford Stakes and the Doncaster Futurity, both key to the Guineas, but his breeding shouts ‘Derby,’ and trainer says: ‘He’s a high cruiser but it’s a big ask for him to win the Guineas.’ O’Brien has won the 2,000 no fewer than 10 times.
115 PERFECT POWER (Richard Fahey) Related to 1m 2f winners and dam won the Arc but kept to 5-6f last year, winning the Norfolk Stakes, Prix Morny and Middle Park (Dr Zempf 8th). But stepped into the Guineas arena with a powerful surge in the final furlong of the Greenham (7f; Lusail second).
114 DUBAWI LEGEND (Hugo Palmer) Trainer, who won the 2016 Guineas with Galileo Gold, recently took over the Manor House Stables of Michael Owen’s in Cheshire. ‘Legend’ was runner-up to Native Trail in the Dewhurst but raced too keenly and finished down the field in the Breeders Cup.
114 POINT LONSDALE (Aidan O’Brien) Curragh Futurity winner, as his fourth win in a row, but turned over in the National Stakes by Native Trail. Ryan Moore will leave a decision between riding this one or Luxembourg ‘as late as possible.’
113 ROYAL PATRONAGE (Charlie and Mark Johnston) Landed a hat-trick when catching Coroebus a neck in the Royal Lodge Stakes in the autumn, with Masekela five lengths away, fourth.
109 EYDON (Roger Varian) Eye-catching improvement when beating Masekela, going clear in the Feilden Stakes at the Newmarket Craven Meeting. Fifth, nearly six lengths off the winner, was Cresta, who had finished runner-up to Light Infantry (107) in the Horris Hill in the autumn.
*Already ante-post: NATIVE TRAIL 3.5 on BETDAQ
IS THE DREAM OVER?
⭕ 5.25 Punchestown (Champion Stayers Hurdle) Klassical Dream bolted up by nine lengths in this race last year but he needs to bounce back from not just one but two disappointing efforts and you will be playing at short odds on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE to find out if he can.
He’s been beaten subsequently in the Galmoy at Gowran (when sent off 1/3) and was then a beaten favourite in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Rather worryingly he was reluctant to start that day and flattened out quite quickly, despite looking in cruise control.
Given the form of the Willie Mullins’ stable this week anything is possible but Gordon Elliott is also in terrific form again and Sire Du Berlais represents a potent threat.
He is only rated 3lb inferior on the book and unlike Klassical Dream arrives here on the back of a win at Aintree where he saw off Cheltenham winner Flooring Porter.
The downside with Sire Du Berlais is that he has often struggled to put two good runs back to back but at the prices he looks far more appealing than the favourite today.
GABY TO CONFIRM FORM
⭕ 6.35 Punchestown (Barberstown Castle Novice Chase) I wanted to be with Willie Mullins in the second Grade 1 on Thursday’s card.
However the race has changed complexion with the news that his Gentleman De Mee is now a non runner after scoping badly / respiratory infection this morning.
His Blue Lord now looks the pick of the stable’s remaining three runners and this one didn’t lose much in defeat when third to Edwardstone at Cheltenham.
However in second that day was Gabynako who ran a blinder for Gavin Cromwell and finished three and a half lengths in front of Blue Lord. I’m taking that form to be confirmed.
STOUTE FORM TO CONTINUE
⭕ 8.00 Chelmsford Sir Michael Stoute has struck with four winners in the last fortnight and the stable looks pretty well forward.
Terra Mitica shaped well on her two starts last season at Newmarket and Haydock and should now relish this step up in trip.
She should have the class to see off Atlantis Blue whose turf form came with give in the ground and debutant Hexameter who represents top connections but might just need this opener.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 1.6pts win SIRE DU BERLAIS (5.25 Punchestown)
BET 3.9pts win GABYNAKO (6.35 Punchestown)
BET 8.0pts win (nap) TERRA MITICA (8.00 Chelmsford)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
