I’M IN CHARGE ON SATURDAY, SAYS NICHOLLS: Daqman reports on two more races in his Saturday previews and finds that champion-trainer Paul Nicholls has the upper hand.
TODAY’S TIPS: DAQMAN’S on the late shift – spotting three bets on the Chelmsford card including a WIN 20 recommendation.
NICHOLLS THE ANTE-POST HIT MAN
Ditch it! Paul Nicholls has scuppered the ante-post markets for two big chases on Saturday by declaring Hitman for both.
Nicholls has won the Graduation Chase at Haydock (1.50) eight times in 10 years, with form figures of 1111112-11, among them success for Politologue and Bravemansgame.
On Saturday he relies on Hitman, placed eight times in eight completed chases in England, putting himself on 160, between 10lb and 25lb clear of his probable rivals.
He’s finished placed in five consecutive Graded races behind such notables as Eldorado Allen, Greaneteen and Fakir D”Oudairies
But Hitman will take the low road to Ascot if Haydock is lost. Nicholls has won the Grade-2 chase (2.05 race; 2m 5f) four times in nine years, with stable stars Al Ferof (twice), Politologue and Cyrname.
Hitman would have to face likely-odds-on L’Homme Presse but, while Nicholls has been absolutely flying with strike rates varying between 40-50% since the end of the Flat season, L’Homme Presse’s yard is in the doldrums.
Venetia Williams is 0-23 in the last two weeks, and has gone 209 days without a Jumps winner. She started her season late and has now sustained 33 consecutive losers.
POETRY IN MOTION
⭕ 6.00 Chelmsford Charlie Appleby’s short hop from Newmarket to Essex should be rewarded in the opener with Majestic Pride who ran well at HQ on debut but will be priced accordingly here.
The nap on the card looks to be Love Poems in the 6.00 – the mare seems to like it around Chelmsford as her two career wins have both come here, including two starts ago over this two mile trip.
She’s 4lb higher and two grades higher on paper but it doesn’t look any more competitive in reality with her facing mainly out of form rivals.
Longsider doesn’t go to the well too often and ran better than his fifth placing suggested at Wolverhampton last time out after a 469 day break.
Whether he can improve for this big step up in trip is questionable though – even hailing from the magical Sir Mark Prescott stable.
I prefer the proven form of Love Poems.
I SEE YOU
⭕ 6.30 Chelmsford A good example of a race not needing a lot of runners to be competitive. Just a quintet go to post for this class 2 handicap and the Betdaq Betting Exchange market was headed this morning by Soldier’s Minute – despite a 216 day break. He’s generally needed the run after an absence in the past and the Keith Dalgleish yard could be in better form.
Ventura Tormenta (784 days) and Shallow Hal (195 days) both also have lengthy absences to overcome and it might just be one of those races where a recent run counts for everything and that would narrow it down to either May Sonic or See You Bay.
May Sonic just isn’t firing for me at the moment and a further 3lb drop down the weights doesn’t really interest me. The Charles Hill trained runner has had a poor year which started with an odds-on last of three at Kempton and hasn’t got a great deal better. He only beat two home over course and distance last time out in the same class 2 company.
It might mean See You Boy takes it by default. He’s only a career 1-9 but that win came on the all-weather at Deauville (also Polytrack surface) and he has run plenty of solid races in France since, including a Longchamp third. This is his first start for Marco Botti but it really doesn’t look the toughest of openings.
At around 5.4 I’m to try for a WIN 20 return.
LIS IN LUCKY LAST
⭕ 8.30 Chelmsford The two heading the market looks distinctly opposable. Inchbae hasn’t really shown much form nor her trainer recently whilst Costa Adeje has a 0-20 CV.
Lisdarragh is the sole course and distance winner in the race and he might have needed his comeback run at Leicester.
He is only 3lb higher than his C&D win which came with plenty in hand just over a year ago.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
6.00 Chelmsford (win 10, nap)
BET 7.2pts win LOVE POEMS
6.30 Chelmsford (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win SEE YOU BOY
8.30 Chelmsford (win 10)
BET 1.4pts win LISDARRAGH
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