EARLY-BIRDS LINE TO THE WEEKEND WINNERS: Daqman today completes his Early Birds, started yesterday and featuring 10 likely winners early in the season, some with entries at the Flat-season launch meetings of Doncaster and Naas at the weekend, including the Lincoln Handicap and the Irish Lincolnshire and a likely banker, Royal Line.
CHELMSFORD NAP: Three bets for DAQMAN on Thursday including a nap on this evening’s Chelmsford card.
IT ALL STACKS UP FOR FOZZY
Angel Island Tommy Stack won the Irish Lincolnshire twice in the last nine seasons and, after taking over the licence, son Fozzy Stack landed his first winner at the Naas opening meeting a year ago.
Fozzy could saddle Tommy’s last Lincolnshire winner, Onenightidreamed, for Sunday’s race but the same stable’s filly Angel Island also catches my eye.
She’s a ‘hidden horse’, winner first time out when the ground was heavy last April and thought good enough to run in the Group-3 Gallinule Stakes.
Arthur’s Spirit Bill Turner has trained the winner of Saturday’s Brocklesby at Doncaster six times in 22 years.
Arthur’s Spirit is by a Group-1 sprinter out of a mare whose sire won the Cammidge Trophy, which opens the Flat season two and a quarter hours earlier.
Royal Line A first-time-out winner in England, who has scored on soft-heavy, was beaten only about four lengths in the November Handicap at Doncaster, and returns there on Sunday to very likely maintain the winning sequence of four-year-olds (5-7) in the 1m 4f conditions race.
Dark Red Third of 20 in the Balmoral Handicap on soft at Royal Ascot, his return at Kempton Park a fortnight ago should have set him up for Doncaster.
Zabeel Prince Winner twice after a long break, the lightly raced gelding beat last year’s Lincoln Handicap winner, Bravery, at York, having won on the soft at Yarmouth.
NONE FOR NONIOS LAYERS
Distance players could be out in force at Ludlow today. There’s a 1.24 BETDAQ favourite in the opener and a 1.05 favourite in the following three runner novice chase !!!
There’s nothing like competitive midweek racing and this is nothing like competitive midweek racing.
3.35 Ludlow This at least looks a little more competitive and the two penalised runners look vulnerable to me.
I had a similar scenario at Kempton last night where I was right to take on the two at the top of the market but didn’t manage to find the one that got them beat. In the Kempton race, that being a 20/1 chance who on her previous start finished last of 10 at Brighton – beaten 32 lengths 🙁
Silver Kayf was a narrow winner at Huntingdon before being anchored by the penalty when third at Southwell last time out.
Dans Le Vent can be excused his poor run at Newbury as it came in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle but was well held in more modest company at Market Rasen last time out – the scene of his win in November for which he is another seemingly struggling under the penalty.
I thought the one that could spoil the party for the aforementioned was Ballymillen from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard whose lower priced runners are generally running well and the team went agonisingly close at Cheltenham with Splash Of Ginge.
Ballymillen has yet to run under Rules but and has been progressing nicely in the point to point sphere and was an easy winner at Moira. This is exactly the sort of the horse the stable does well with and at around 8.0 on BETDAQ and three places still (despite seven runners) up for grabs makes for a good win and place project.
4.00 Chepstow Pink Gin gets plenty of ticks in the boxes from my man in the long grass.
Course, distance and ground are all positives and he has been given a break since a rare jumping error here in December when he was still in the lead before falling at the seventh.
He’s a decent price in wide open chase and hopefully grab a slice of the action.
6.45 Chelmsford King Kevin is in new territory handicap wise with a 6lb penalty for a narrow win at Wolverhampton last time out and this looks a tougher race.
He might prove vulnerable and this can go to Nonios who is on the same mark having gone down by a short head to Captain Pugwash over course and distance last time out. Such are the vagaries of handicapping, if that short head verdict had swung the other way he would no doubt have been put up a couple of pounds.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets, including place, staked to win 20 points):
BET 2.8pts win and 16.6pts place BALLYMILLEN (3.35 Chepstow)
BET 2.3pts win and 8.0pts place PINK GIN (4.00 Chepstow)
BET 18.1pts win NONIOS (nap) (6.45 Chelmsford)
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