THE IRISH DEFINE THE PATHS OF CLASSIC GLORY: See how they won! Daqman’s a big believer in following the defined stepping-stones to big-race victory. Looking forwards, looking backwards, you can spot the typical autumn target horses and, as the two-year-old tests hot up, next year’s Classic prospects are laid bare. Daqman starts by checking out the path to Newmarket 2,000 Guineas glory, and reveals why Irish trainers could cold-shoulder a traditional English route to stardom.
HAS THE DEWHURST HAD ITS DAY?
Is the Dewhurst Stakes now second class? A new path to glory carved out by Jim Bolger and Aidan O’Brien for two-year-olds in Ireland is increasingly the classic rite of passage to the 2,000 Guineas.
The new route consistently reveals Ballydoyle’s thinking about their juveniles and will answer the question this year: how good is Armory?
The path to glory is a tall order which goes like this: Tyros Stakes, Curragh Futurity, National Stakes and on to win 2,000 Guineas. It was first trod by Bolger in 2006.
Before that, the old way, particularly favoured by Vincent O’Brien, was National Stakes, Dewhurst, Guineas.
But the Dewhurst (Newmarket October 12) is now close to two top alternatives in the late season, the Lagardere at the Arc meeting in Paris (October 6) and the Breeders Cup Juvenile, with the Dewhurst and the Lagardere both providing automatic entry for the Breeders Cup festival (November 1 and 2, Santa Anita).
2006 Teofilo (Jim Bolger) WWWX: Tyros, Futurity, National Stakes but injured and absent second season and missed the Guineas.
2007 New Approach (Jim Bolger) WWW2: Bolger perseveres and Tyros, Futurity and National Stakes all go to New Approach but he is beaten a nose in the Guineas
2014 Gleneagles (Aidan O’Brien) WWWW: Tyros, Futurity, National Stakes and Guineas. All four. Job done.
2016 Churchill (Aidan O’Brien) WWWWW won them all.. PLUS the Dewhurst!
Jim Bolger returned to the old National Stakes, Dewhurst and Guineas route for Dawn Approach (2012) which brought him sweet revenge in the Guineas. Then came a series of his Dewhurst winners that flopped.
Rock of Gibraltar (2001) had won Dewhurst and Guineas for Aidan O’Brien but he, too, had a sequence of Dewhurst winners who all failed at Newmarket; in fact, ‘failed, full stop’:
2009 Beethoven (Aidan O’Brien): 000144000 (then changed trainers); won only a Group 3 in England and Ireland after.
2013 War Command (Aidan O’Brien): 040 never won another race
2015 Air Force Blue (Aidan O’Brien): 0000 never won another race
2017 US Navy Flag (Aidan O’Brien): 40201000 reverted to sprinting and won just the July Cup over 6f from his subsequent starts. Other Dewhurst winners in this period, not trained by Aidan O’Brien:
2008 Intense Focus (Jim Bolger) form of 20 and no further starts.
2011 Parish Hall (Jim Bolger) missed his second season
2014 Belardo (Roger Varian) 0400032 in second season; not score again until won the Lockinge as a 4yo.
2018 Too Darn Hot (John Gosden) 22311 second in the Irish Guineas but dropped 5lb though won two Group-1 races.
Exception to all the rules and routes was 2010 Frankel (Henry Cecil) Royal Lodge, Dewhurst, Greenham, 2,000 Guineas. When will another English colt beat an independent path to Guineas glory? Don’t hold your breath.
SOLAR TO ECLIPSE CHELMSFORD RIVALS
1.30 Chelmsford Hashtagmetoo made her debut on the all-weather here and although a modest fourth she proved she handles the surface which we don’t yet know about the favourite Incognito.
Furthermore, Hashtagmetoo has put in a couple of good recent spins in much better races than this at Newmarket and Goodwood and this event could be hers for the taking.
Incognito’s best run came over this trip at Newmarket when a four and a half length runner-up to Ananya – the winner went on to finish fifth in the Group 3 Sweet Solera – but Incognito hasn’t really progressed since that run and we have the all-weather question mark to consider too.
1.50 Ffos Las Hat-trick seeker Gilt Edge might be worth taking on under her statutory 6lb penalty for her course win last week over five furlongs.
Whilst she is in terrific form, she only scrambled home by a head and her latest wins have come over shorter trips than today’s six furlongs.
Assembly Of Truth looks a worthy alternative – she’s making her stable debut for David Evans having joined from France and even marginal improvement puts her in with a great shout.
She has shown some form in France over longer trips but the secret could be the return to sprinting off what is a potentially ‘thrown in’ handicap mark of 66. Early BETDAQ movements are also positive in her favour.
Elsewhere, the Mick Channon trained Cotubanama went close off today’s mark at Leicester last time out and a repeat of that over the same trip and ground could easily see her go close. She is around 3.15 on the BETDAQ place market so I will have a stakes saver on her – although bear in mind we are only shooting for two places with the seven declared.
2.00 Chelmsford I’m struggling to find too many negatives about Solar Heights.
His form figures here read 113 and his most recent third looked his best effort to date coming in a class 3 compared to this class 4.
His trainer James Tate had a winner at the last meeting here and it really should be all systems go.
Lothario is up 4lb for a hard fought Lingfield win last time out and although a three times winner, has so far not managed to go back to back.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points, except stakes saver as indicated)
1.30 Chelmsford
3.7pts win HASHTAGMETOO
1.50 Ffos Las
BET 3.1pts win ASSEMBLY OF TRUTH
BET 1.5pts place (stakes saver) COTUBANAMA
2.00 Chelmsford
BET 10pts win (nap) SOLAR HEIGHTS
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