SIX DAYS WITH WINNERS: After Hardstyle (WON 9-4) on Tuesday, Daqman scored with Vitalline (WON 13-8) yesterday to make it 11 winning bets in six days (see Daqman Tuesday for details). His overall profit is 144.16 points. Today he tries to make it a full week of winners!
CHELTENHAM UPDATE: Jagwar switches from the Plate to join J P McManus’s Oliver Greenall stablemate Iroko in the Ultima, so qualifying Jagwar for the Grand National. Jonbon misses Cheltenham altogether to wait for Aintree.
PREVIEW Day 3: Now here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts Cheltenham survey for next Thursday
FESTIVAL FAVOURITES FAIL
LAYS LOGIC: Seven consecutive beaten favourites in the opening race next Thursday with the 2024 result due for a rerun on Tuesday.
Brighterdaysahead was beaten by 10-1 shot Golden Ace in this Mares Novices that day, before the Ace mare won last year’s Champion Hurdle. They meet again in the Champion Hurdle.
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham, Thursday (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Ages: six-year-olds 6; five-year-olds 4.
Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138, 141, 136, 135, 135, dropping to 124 and 128 last two years. Nine had been placed in Grade 1 or 2.
Trainers: W Mullins (five in a row 2016-2020), Henry de Bromhead (2).
Favourites: Willie Mullins won with three straight favourites, but the last SEVEN market leaders have failed: Epatante (2019) 9th 15-8, Minella Melody (2020) 18th 11-4; Royal Kahala (2021) 9th 9-2; Dinoblue 9th 11-8 (2022), Luccia 4th 6-4 (2023), Brighterdaysahead 2nd 5-6 (2024), Sixandahalf 2nd 85-40 (2025).
⭕ 2.00 Cheltenham (Golden Miller Novices’ Handicap Chase) First running last year (7-11-4) was won by Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden with a 146-rated former Grade-1 Future Champion hurdle winner at Leopardstown (when with Gordon Elliott).
⭕ 2.40 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle) Nine SP favourites scored out of 16. Ages: no winners older than 7 unless a previous winner of the race.
Ratings: 150, 154, 153, 147, 142, 158, 148, 140, 159, 155, 160.
Trainers: Willie Mullins (10 out of 16) goes for a hat-trick with Lossiemouth; Henry De Bromhead has landed two of the last six.
⭕ 3.20 Cheltenham (Stayers Hurdle) Gavin Cromwell (one 12-1) and Gordon Eliott (one 33-1) have shared four of the last five, following Willie Mullins at 10-1 and 12-1 (2017-18). Ages: seven-year-olds 6-9.
Some 17 of the last 18 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 13 of them as winners; 18 out of 19 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168, 146, 160, 164, 152, 162, 158.
LAYS LOGIC: There’s always a hot favourite for this, three winning in the last 11 years. The eight losers were: 5th 11-4, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, 7th 4-6, 3rd 9-4, 5th 11-4, 3rd 9-4 and 2nd 7-4.
⭕ 4.00 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) Five favourites up out of 10. Age seven 5, nine 4. Course form essential: 17 out of 19 had previously won at Cheltenham or been placed in Grade 1 there.
Some 18 out of 20 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 16/19 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level.
Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170, 162, 174, 163, 165, 166.
⭕ 4.40 Cheltenham (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Just two favourites have won in 13 years; nine double-figure SPs. Losing favourites’ prices usually too big to lay.
Winner had six or more runs over hurdles (14/16) and previous success over 2m 4f or 2m 6f+ (13/16)
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. 134, 141, 142, 138, 131.
⭕ 5.20 Cheltenham, (Kim Muir Challenge Cup) Again, only two favourites have won in the last 13 years, and 10/13 SPs range from 6-1 to 40-1 (twice).
Ages: 7 and 8 (11/13). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141, 142, 134, 131, 145, 130. Ran at the festival before (10/16).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 UR (2016); 5-1 UR (2017), 4-1 2nd (2018), 3-1 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020), 9-2 jt favs 2nd and PU in 2022; 7-2 fav 2nd in 2023; 9-2 fav 2nd last year.
THE McMANUS TRAVELOGUE
⭕ 2.45 Haydock (Tim Molony Handicap Chase): No wonder J P McManus likes Cheltenham for the savings he makes in bus fares (more like aviation fuel – editor).
J P has had winners in the last fortnight at Huntingdon, Fairyhouse, Naas, Wincanton, Bangor, Clonmel, Navan, Doncaster and Leopardstown.
His targets today are Thurles and Haydock, then Exeter, Ayr, Sandown, Warwick, Carlisle and Gowran Park before the Festival next Tuesday.
Wal Buck’s looks nicely handicapped for some fast bucks in this long-distance chase. A previous winner here, back to form at Kelso the last day, he was paying around 17-10 on BETDAQ this morning, as I looked for 20-point hit.
⭕ 3.40 Wincanton A tough staying chase series qualifier with four set to run off 12st and another within a pound.
The Famous Five is the pick of those, though Venetia Williams is still struggling for winners.
Hipop Des Ongrais wins when fresh and local Dorset trainer, Robert Walford is in good form. He makes ‘Winkers’ Hipop’s preference over Carlisle next Sunday. Betdaq Betting Exchange 21.0.
Your saver must be Battalion, with Jack Stenhouse claiming 7lb, a strong market order this morning.
COLD FORM LOOKING HOT
⭕ 4.45 Wincanton Paul Nicholls, who has supplemented Tutti Quanti for the Champion Hurdle, expects ‘horse with a future’ Le Cold Grey to get off the mark in this bumper. BETDAQ 7.3.
On the debut third at Lingfield, the grey had to give a stone to the winner and the runner-up came out again and won a Novices’ Championship Hurdle qualifier.
DAQMAN’S BETS
on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 2.45 Haydock (win 20, nap)
BET 12pts win WAL BUCK’S
3.40 Wincanton (win 20, win 12)
BET 1pt win HIPOP DES ONGRAIS
BET 6pts win BATALLION
4.45 Wincanton (win 19)
BET 3pts win LE COLD GREY
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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