NOW IT’S 31-10 AS DAQMAN LANDS FESTIVAL ONE-TWO: Daqman went further ahead of Racing Post tipster Pricewise (31-10) yesterday with win and place from his one-two in a thrilling finish to the Cross-Country at Cheltenham (just under 40-1 forecast with Ladbrokes).
4-1 ‘KING’ WAS 7.6 ON BETDAQ: Daqman had three returns on the day but doesn’t charge Faugheen to the account in the Pricewise challenge as it was a stakes saver, giving him a break-even on the opening race. His wins were:
WON 4-1 BALTHAZAR KING (from 7.6 on BETDAQ)
2nd 10-1 ANY CURRENCY (from 13.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 6-4 FAUGHEEN (from 3.2 on BETDAQ)
20 POINTS PROFIT SO FAR: He edged in front narrowly yesterday, and his eight winning bets in the first two days of Cheltenham give him just under 20 points profit. Not his usual haul but he’s had one win banker one winner, two lays out of two, and beaten Pricewise 6-0.
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: THE PAIN AND THE PLEASURE AT HALF WAY
PAINFUL to see my Tuesday bet, The New One, favourite for next year’s Champion Hurdle in some quarters when I had to leave my hard-earned behind in this year’s race because he got knocked sideways. And painful on the wallet not to get a run from Captain Conan in the Champion Stakes yesterday. Two title bouts, two technical knockouts! Third time lucky in tomorrow’s Gold Cup?
PAINFUL but only myself to blame for nominating Robbie McNamara as top amateur rider and then ignoring his mount, Silver Concorde, winner of the Champion Bumper at 16-1. Winners of that race are always horses to follow.
PLEASURE to see my first win-40 bet of the year, Vautour, tank in like a champion, my first 30-point banker take her sixth mares’ crown and my first two lays well and truly laid. I’ll tell you today why it’s always a layers meeting.
THE STORY SO FAR: Mullins’ form figures up to the Neptune: 1002412331. Nicholls’ form-figures in two days: 04000F0000U0402.
1.30 Cheltenham (JLT – Golden Miller – Novices’ Chase): While we rightly celebrate Quevega’s record-breaking sixth Mares’ Hurdle, the one she supposedly overtakes at the top of the Cheltenham charts, Golden Miller, won five Gold Cups and a Grand National. Platinum to her gold, I think.
This race in his honour produced Sir Des Champs in 2012 but is notable for three consecutive defeats by the highest-rated equine celebs in the race: Dynaste (161) was second last year, Peddlers Cross (160) was last to finish the year before, and the first JLT saw Wishfull Thinking (155) also stuffed.
What beat them? The younger generation. They make up half the field today and one of them may have the X-factor over the older market leaders like Felix Yonger and Oscar Whisky, who have both come late to jumping fences.
Sizing Gold’s conqueror, Foxrock, did nothing for the form on Tuesday; Taquin Du Seuil was prey to revenge by Oscar Whisky and Paul Nicholls’ Wonderful Charm is in front of the both of them on December form.
Class-3 novice Uxizandre has to step up, while dark-horse Vukovar ‘could be anything’ though, as a Frenchman, is likely to need softer ground.
I find it hard to back a Nicholls’ horse at this time, on his record so far at the meeting including that shocker of a run from Supreme Novices joint-favourite, Irving.
Quite the opposite applies to Willie Mullins. And, of all the terrific animals he has brought to Cheltenham this week, there is one – Djakadam – that he has had little of his customary reserve about.
Try this for a sudden attack of equine hyperbole: ‘He is a really natural jumper who would have gained lengths at his fences if let stride on.. He has great scope.. Ruby couldn’t get a pull of him to pull him up!
‘He had a huge amount left in the tank. It’s very hard to get a horse that jumps and gallops like he does.’
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Is it possible that, after the sensational first-race-of-the-day feats of Vantour on Tuesday and Faugheen yesterday, Willie Mullins can do the hat-trick here? Yes twice over.
It’s highly likely to be with Felix Yonger but is it possible that this five-year-old Djakadam is, in fact, The Chosen One, among all that sparkling County Carlow collection?.
Novice-chasers who were top-line Grade-1 hurdlers do well in this type of event and Ruby Walsh stands by the ‘very professional’ Felix Yonger (Ruby’s words), Neptune second to Simonsig, and with goodish-ground form figures of 102111.
Of course, this applies to Oscar Whisky, too; Supreme Novices fourth, Champion Hurdle third and World Hurdle fifth in successive years.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Djakadam 1, Felix Yonger 2, Oscar Whisky 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: Potential (or anything containing that word ‘maybe’) is not a good way to bet unless you get a price: 10-1 will do nicely, thankyou BETDAQ layers.
So I can have 2.7 points at 12.0 DJAKADAM and 7.5 on FELIX YONGER (at 5.0) for my usual 30 target per bet (I don’t do dutching, only fixed-profit-yield individual bets so that my returns are transparent)
2.05 Cheltenham (Pertemps Final): Whisper it (he won from high in the Coral Cup handicap) but the top half dozen in this have very little chance on the stats: 35 horses rated 143 or more have all failed this century.
In that time, Jonjo O’Neill (how did I miss Holywell?) has trained the winner three times, and has snook Josies Orders into the foot of the handicap, accounting Maurice Linehan’s claim.
In fact, Holywell won this last year after running second in his qualifier, whereas ‘Josie’ won his and now has to buck the trend: only once in 19 finals has a qualifier winner scored on the big day.
And, though he may look low in the handicap, ‘Josie’ has shot up 22lb this year. That, in a nutshell, is why winners of the heats lose out in the final. Just look at the form figures of the last eight to take this prize:
Holywell 2222; Cape Tribulation P004; Buena Vista 0000; Buena Vista again 0000; Oscar Park 22F0; Kadoun 0000. The exceptions are the odd-man-out qualifier winner, Ballyfitz (2008), and the following year Kayf Aramis.
Broadway Buffalo has the look of a Pipe runaway; Crowning Jewel will stay till closing time; Utopie Des Bordes is better than the bare form; Mister Dillon will appreciate the ground; If In Doubt has a touch of class.
At the top of the handicap, Fingal Bay and If In Doubt were one-two in the Exeter qualifier after If In Doubt had run second in the Lanzarote. Jetson, third in last year’s final to Holywell, is 7lb higher.
The one among the top bunch who has those Pertemps winning form-figures (0033) is Trustan Times. Once upon a Trustan Times, he beat Holywell in a Grade 3, giving him 12lb.
Since then, he’s been placed in the Long Walk, the Rendlesham and the West Yorkshire, all Grade 1 or 2, and, dropped a few pounds. Could be a surprise package after the stable’s 33-1 winner yesterday.
On the Bridge will love the ground but has never been able to raise his game above class 3.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The two in the right ratings area who will appreciate the faster conditions are Mister Dillon who went well over CD on his first run back this season, and Crowning Jewel, a real stayer laid out for this by a shrewd yard. Both 26.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Crowning Jewel 1, Mister Dillon 2, If In Doubt 3
DAQMAN’S BETS: 4pts win IF IN DOUBT, 1.2pts win and place on each CROWNING JEWEL and MISTER DILLON.
2.40 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) The last three winners have been rated 165, 168 and 166, with six of the last nine already successful over course and distance. That applies to Dynaste, (169), Menorah (169) and Al Ferof (165), who are all round about the ratings parameter.
The last six Ryanair winners had run in the King George. Those three did, though ‘run’ is hardly the word for Menorah, who jumped badly (after a knee op) and pulled up. Could bounce back but hard to bet he will do so and win.
Today’s ground and the drop back in trip favours Al Ferof, who likes this meeting – Champion Bumper runner-up, Supreme Novice winner and Arkle fourth – but the stable is having a stinker of a week.
Benefficient refused to be denied when he beat Dynaste in the Golden Miller a year ago today. Boston Bob prefers more cut in the ground but was winning the RSA when he fell at the last.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BET: These are all flawed, one way or another. Maybe the lucky lad is Davy Russell who steps in for the ride on BENEFFICIENT after the injury to Bryan Cooper: 5.2 this morning.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Benefficient 1, Al Ferof 2, Boston Bob 3
3.20 Cheltenham (Ladbrokes World Hurdle) The hot-pot rivals Annie Power – mare of the moment in spite of Quevega – and Big Buck’s, four times king of the World until absent in 2013, both have to defy some meaningful stats.
Big Buck’s would be only the second 11-year-old winner since 1972, and Annie Power the first to win with fewer than eight previous hurdles starts (she’s had six) since Rustle in 1989 and probably the first ever to be so lightly raced and without a run beyond 21 furlongs.
It’s another case of do you join the Mullins faithful at a short price? It’s certainly hard to keep faith with Camp Ditcheat this week, with their string of losers.
Millions of words will be written about this encounter but all tipsters should be made to put their money where their mouth is, or at least admit to making a partisan choice, when only a decision on value is really valid.
I mean, come off it you partisans, can you honestly back the 11-year-old Big Buck’s with his stable form and his coming to the end of his racing days a la Hurricane Fly?
A mare hasn’t won this in 21 years and can you honestly back a young lady called Annie just three races out of novice class and whose power we have seen only up to 21 furlongs on soft ground?
There are spectacles and betting opportunities. I have to tip in both. This is a spectacle (we hope). Only in hindsight will we be able to say: of course Big Buck’s was always going to outstay her; of course, Annie Power was too young; too smart; too powerful.. whichever, blah blah blah.
That’s why the layers win in the long run: punters follow horses not prices and get carried away by hype and the headlines. Answer: be a layer on BETDAQ!
There is no genuine betting opportunity in this today but, faced with one old man (Big Buck’s) and one pretentious girl (Annie Power), I’ll put my pound on an upset and watch the mugs throwing money at the layers.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: Neptune winner AT FISHER’S CROSS (form figures at Cheltenham 1112; BETDAQ offers 11.5) has only just come right after losing his way for a time through back trouble and the stable struck with O’Faolains Boy yesterday.
Value? Well, I can get more for a place about Fisher’s than I could Annie Power for a win! Come on A.P., you and I have taken on the World before now and won!
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: At Fisher’s Cross 1, Big Buck’s 2, Annie Power 3.
4.00 Cheltenham (Byrne Group Plate) Irish stables have won the Plate only once since 1951 and recent winners have included 66-1, 50-1, 33-1, 18-1, 14-1 and 12-1 (twice)
This time the layers are not looking for partisans but for those prepared to take less than 23-1 (the true odds) in a 24-runner race. Well, as ‘true’ as the ability of the handicapper, whose job is to make them finish in a line.
And the punters only means of breaking the line is ‘hidden’ form of horse or stable, going dependency, ability to act on the course and aptitude at the trip.
Horses aged six to eight are 7-10 and ratings between 133 and 139 are 7-10, with David Pipe, Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson claiming 7-9. Any help?
DAQMAN’S VERDICT AND BETS: I shall back THIRD INTENTION (14.5 on BETDAQ) win and place, as one in the frame 11 times in graded races, hard to win with but dropped 8lb since second to Dynaste and only a pound higher now than his second to Captain Conan, both races last Spring.
BALLYNAGOUR (17.0) has had this as his target since fluffing his lines as favourite last year, and I believe that CHRISTOPHER WREN (70.0) is better than the bare form
4.40 Cheltenham (Kim Muir) Another bad race for the Irish: 31 years since they won it. But I think they’ll break the hoodoo here. I can’t desert Robbie McNamara again.
His SPRING HEELED – 17.5 on BETDAQ this morning – and the Mullins’ horse BALNASLOW at 11.0 have both had half a dozen choices this week and both are much better on a faster surface.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all to win 30 points, except place bankers and Daq Doubles)
BET 7.5pts win FELIX YONGER and 2.7pts win DJAKADAM (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET 4pts win IF IN DOUBT, 1.2pts win and place on each CROWNING JEWEL and MISTER DILLON (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 7.3pts win (nap) BENEFFICIENT (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win and 7pts place banker AT FISHER’S CROSS (3.20 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win BALNASLOW and 1.8pts win and place SPRING HEELED (4.40 Cheltenham)
BET: 2.2pts win and 7.8pts place banker THIRD INTENTION, 1.8pts win and place BALLYNAGOUR, and 0.5pts win and place CHRISTOPHER WREN (4.00 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES DOUBLES: Felix Yonger and Djakadam (1.30 Cheltenham) with Benefficient (3.20 Cheltenham) and with Big Buck’s and Annie Power (3.20 Cheltenham)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Al Ferof (2.40 Cheltenham) and At Fishers Cross (3.20 Cheltenham)
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