BANKER IS RELIABLE AS A ROCK: Daqman yesterday found a rock amid the murky form of the Classic Trials by switching to Leopardstown for a reliable nap. In fact, he forecast Fascinating Rock (20-point banker, WON 9-10) would win in an article in his column on Monday.
7.0 NAP RUNS AT CHELTENHAM: Back to the Classic Trials at Newmarket today, he cannot trust the Flat horses to continue the form of his best bets, so he switches to Cheltenham for 7.0 value nap.
LUCKY ABERNANT HOPE BIG ON BETDAQ AT 12.0
Hands up: don’t be shy! All those who expected ‘winner trained K J Condon’ and (ditto) ‘Hugo Palmer’ in the most important Classic trials in England and Ireland so far.
Or, to put it another way, that the Derby favourite would be stuffed and two of the first four in the 2,000 Guineas betting would be beaten or out of action.
While I have struggled to cope with tipping in this melting pot, my warnings about ante-post betting in the Classics have proved more than justified.
If we go on like this, I forecast outsiders winning the Guineas, maybe the Derby and Oaks, though the form should settle down by then, surely (famous last words).
When the smaller yards turn over the so-called top Classic contenders, it becomes a free-for-all, which means big fields at Newmarket and Epsom.
We can usually say the bad winter or a wet summer the previous year has disguised the form. None of that seems to apply. I asked my man in the long grass at Newmarket and he lamely said: ‘We didn’t open the Limekilns gallop till the weekend.’
One of my mentors, the pro punter Alex Bird used to say: “When backing three-year-olds, remember this year is this year, last year is last. I never put a pound on a three-year-old until June.’
Two-year-old form might have a huge bearing on the following year’s Classic. But it might have nothing whatsoever to do with it! The colts that beat John F Kennedy and Faydhan had both been beaten at Group 3 and Listed levels.
And how do the surprise trials winners rate in the handicapper’s eye? The Racing Post assessor says that yesterday’s Nell Gwyn ‘heroine’ has only ‘each-way Classic appeal at 20-1.’
2.20 Newmarket (Wood Ditton Stakes) Here we go again! At least you are forearmed that this is only a class-4 three-year-olds race, and it’s produced 16-1 (twice) and 40-1 winners in nine seasons, though two of the last three favourites have scored.
It used to be the case that punters followed the losers in this race and would be rewarded with half-a dozen winners in the next few weeks.
But you’d have had to wait until August and December (returning losing bets in the meantime) for the second and third to score from last year’s race.
Trainers in form are Ralph Beckett (Argus), John Gosden (Fallen For A Star, Markstein) and Saeed Bin Suroon (Winter House)
2.55 Newmarket Hot stables for this one are governed by Mike De Kock (Tamnaaf), Saeed Bin Suroor (Greatest Journey), David Elsworth (Melodious) and Andrew Balding (Rocky Rider).
Secret Brief, who represents last year’s winning stable, wasn’t up to Dewhurst level last year, but won two Sales races when with Mark Johnston, and here he is in another one.
The other Godolphin, Greatest Journey, is hooded first time, which is a worry at this level. Several of these are entered up, including Rocky Rider, who is on the Dante-Derby route, and I’ll take him at 4.3 over the exposed Secret Brief. His reappearance win took the freshness out of him and he should respond to a good gallop here.
3.30 Newmarket (Abernant Stakes) A welcome half-hour break from the three-year-olds, but the Abernant may not be a better pointer to the future than the Classic trials. Equiano stands out among recent winners.
That’s despite 10 out of he last 14 winners being aged four and five with their future seemingly before them. There hasn’t been a three-year-old winner since page-boy Geoff Lewis was training, though there should be more to come from Angelic Lord, who was mugged on the line in the Lingfield (AW) Spring Cup.
Astaire (6.0 on BETDAQ this morning) has won on both Newmarket courses and his Cammidge Trophy second should have set him up for this. Jack Dexter has also had a run but needs soft ground. It may also be too firm for Musical Comedy.
Astaire’s principal danger could be Lucky Kristale (12.0 offers are big), who couldn’t hack it at Group-1 level last season but a drop back to sprinting looks tailor-made on this surface.
Diamond Jubilee fourth and Haydock Sprint third Music Master is a worthy favourite but – Equiano apart again – the jolly usually gets turned over. Watchable is a Pivotal and they prefer the ground on the easy side of good, if not soft.
MOHEET MIGHT BE ANOTHER HANNON TORNADO
4.05 Newmarket (Craven Stakes) Back to the so-called Classic trials (I’ll have more to say about them next week).
Richard Hannon, doubly represented today, has thrown up one or two aces in this in his three in a row but they haven’t won Classics, and other winners in the decade haven’t even been picture cards.
The last 2,000 Guineas winners from the Craven were Doyoun (1988) and Haafhd (2004) and, if there is to be one from today’s field, it could be Moheet, who is by the same sire as one of those Hannon trio, Toronado (2013), and bolted up in his maiden.
Kool Kompany and War Envoy look exposed to the extent that, after longish seasons last year, you’d wonder if they will train on, though War Envoy looked grown enough and was blowing hard as if needing the run on his Polytrack reappearance.
It’s hard to fancy White Lake, whose trainer hasn’t had a winner this year. The colt is by Pivotal and the firm ground may not help.
He was behind the subsequent Royal Lodge runner-up Nafaqa when that one won a Listed in the autumn. Aces is by a sire of sprinters.
4.40 Newmarket (Earl of Sefton Stakes) Alex Bird also used to say: ‘If it’s an odd distance, back a horse that likes an odd distance.’ This 1m 1f only suits for certain Educate (very hard to win with but has had a run back), French Navy (going for a four-timer but may need an easier surface) and Niceofyoutotellme.
Ralph Beckett has had only one out of the first four in his last 12 starters, and Niceofyoutotellme has won first time in both of the last two seasons but he’s a stone behind some of these in the ratings for his first assault on a Group race.
Arod won first time last season, was second in the Dante and fourth in the Derby but the ultra-laid-back Peter Chapple-Hyam is a law unto himself and hasn’t had a winner this year.
Mondialiste is another puzzle because this is quite different ground to that which he raced on in France but Galileos are rarely ground-dependent, so I’ll follow the Lincoln runner-up, who was the ‘moral’ at Doncaster, giving weight to the winner and only narrowly beaten.
NAP Top Totti (2.40 Cheltenham) is disguised by her forays into Graded racing and the marathon at Cheltenham. Back there today, and dropped in class and trip, she was value this morning at 7.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points)
BET 3.3pts win (nap) TOP TOTTI (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 6pts win ROCKY RIDER (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win ASTAIRE, and 1.8pts win and place LUCKY KRISTALE (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 5.5pts win MOHEET (4.05 Newmarket)
BET 5pts win MONDIALISTE (4.40 Newmarket)
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