ANOTHER BULL’S-EYE BET AFTER 8-1 SHOT HITS THE WIRE: Daqman had two consecutive winners on Chester’s opening day yesterday with Dubai Fountain (WON 13-8) and Showalong (WON 13-8) but his bull’s-eye bet to win 50 points, Pivoting (2ND 8-1), finished too late to catch the winner. There’s another one today.
SEARCH FOR THE DERBY WINNER CONTINUES AT CHESTER: On day two, Daqman analyses the big races of the day, the Group-3 Ormonde Stakes and the Dee Stakes (Listed) test for three-year-olds, part of his search for Fortune Cookie bets for the Derby and Oaks.
YOUTH YARD NOW HAS TALES TO TELL
⭕ 2.15 Chester (Dee Stakes) I didn’t include the Dee Stakes in my trials list for ABC treatment but it has a pretty good recent record.
Cliffs Of Moher (2017 winner) went on to run second in the Epsom Derby, while Astrology (2012) was third, and Magician (2013) went to the Curragh and won the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
Before that, Pentire (1995) took the ‘Ascot Derby’ King Edward V11 Stakes and the Great Volitgeur before becoming the King George hero the following year.
The most recent Derby winners from the Dee Stakes were Oath (1999) and Kris Kin (2003), so the gap is almost 20 years now.
Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last eight, with his form in the last 10 runnings of the Dee Stakes: 0-11143111
Though placed in a string of top races, his runner today, Ontario has remained stationary in the ratings, racing for the fourth time today off 109.
He’s had eight races in all, third in the Curragh Futurity and second in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket. Only third in the Free Handicap on his return, though he needed the run.
The other Irish runner, Earlswood, could improve on his Navan win (heavy) but the runner-up and the fourth horse home have both been well beaten since.
Foxes Tales, from the Andrew Balding yard that won the Chester Vase with Youth Spirit yesterday, finished very strongly in his Newbury maiden win.
Maximal has been favourite every one of four runs since his debut, scoring just the once after being second to One Ruler at Sandown. His only bad run was on the soft.
Yibir has improved his rating in every race, from 83 to 89 to 100 to 107 after the last day when he was third in the Sandown Classic Trial but the winner of that had earlier been well beaten by Fancy Man, third in the Chester Vase.
BETDAQ value 8.8 Foxes Tales
KING TO TOPPLE EMPEROR
⭕ 3.15 Chester (Ormonde Stakes) Only one winner in the decade has been bigger than 3-1 at SP.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times in nine years but his Kew Gardens was slammed eight lengths in 2019 – the last time the race was run – by Morando on soft ground.
This time O’Brien pits Japan against Morando but Alan King’s Trueshan is Japan’s equal if official ratings are to be believed.
The plusses for Japan are very obvious. He’s a huge class dropper but the concerns are also significant. He has needed his seasonal reappearance in each of the past two seasons.
Aidan O’Brien’s form has just tapered off a little since his electric start. He’s currently running at four winners from his past 35 runners and only one winner from his last eight favourites.
The weekend change in the going will certainly help Morando, as indeed would any further rain in his bid to repeat the 2019 success which came on his seasonal start. He handles the contours of the track well.
But the danger to both is very much the Hollie Doyle ridden Trueshan as there are no signs of his improvement slowing down. He’s unproven at Chester but comes into this on a hat-trick after a seven and a half length romp at Ascot in October when he landed the prestigious Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup under Doyle.
That was a Group 2 and he steps back to Group 3 level for this and is another who will appreciate the easier ground.
BETDAQ value Trueshan 3.2
NOT A MAD SELECTION
⭕ 3.45 Chester The race has a poor record for favourites so I am looking elsewhere in search of BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value.
My man in the long grass tells me that Al Madhar, considered good enough to run in the Dante last Spring, has benefitted from a gelding op and was ‘looked after’ on his reappearance run at Thirsk. The change in ground won’t be a negative – he won on good to soft at Newbury last year.
First Impression also makes the short list. He won first time out last season and followed up with another success on today’s ground at Ayr in September. If it ends up being a test of stamina I want him on our side and stall one is an obvious bonus.
BETDAQ value 8.6 Al Madhar
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.15 Chester (win 30)
BET 3.75pts win FOXES TALES
3.15 Chester (win 20)
BET 9.1pts win (nap) TRUESHAN
3.45 Chester (win 50, win 20)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 6.5pts win AL MADHAR
BET 2.7pts win FIRST IMPRESSION
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
