SPRING TO BOOST 80% BANKER RECORD: Much of the day’s racing at the opening of the Newmarket July Meeting is about potential, but Daqman – with 16 winning bankers out of 20 – dives in for one off the high board with a maximum stakes bet on Arab Spring.
‘IVA BET TO BEAT PRICEWISE’: Daqman, who is 48-16 up in his challenge to Pricewise in the current Flat season, names Ivawood to take him further ahead in their fight. Later success with either Mount Logan or Mange All would bring Daqman’s 50 up.
LEGER 17.0 COULD BE GONE FOREVER
They say things come in threes. So when is the next big German walkover after an 11-lengths Derby win in Hamburg and the 7-1 crushing of Brazil at the Estadio Mineirao?
Well, jockey Frederik Tyliki, who rather inappropriately rides Go Nani Go at Newmarket today, is the son of a three-times German champion jockey, and Belardo, one of the favourites for the July Stakes, is a German outdoor-furniture maker.
Spurious lines to form for the third coming? You’re telling me! Absurd, in fact. Yet, as Nick Mordin says in his column this week, we’ll be basing our bets on the most tenuous lines to two-year-olds form.
He argues that they are so flimsy as to be pretty near worthless; and that speed ratings are the thing. But there is no Beyer in England or Ireland. That’s me talking now.
In fact, Andrew Beyer, the U.S. Daily Racing Form architect of the famous speed ratings, might never have got them off the ground in UK, where there are so many vagaries of form other than speed, because so many different tracks and so many ways of running a race other than flat out from the gate.
But, in sprints at least – and, therefore, in most two-year-olds races up to the end of July or so – it would pay for you to look closely at the times of the races, the speed of the sections (if we have any) and focus on the cruising speed and ability for instant acceleration shown by any particular juvenile in any one race.
If one thing sets a horse apart from the rest it is ‘a turn of foot’, that ‘quickening’, that ‘change of gear’. All these phrases, sprinkled through the form book, are as good an indicator as any of a horse with that little bit extra.
You can look much more deeply into speed than this, if you are interested, but for a quick assessment (pun intended) of today’s July Stakes, here are some facts from the Racing Post form, bearing in mind that every horse in the field has won a race.
* Won in slow time: Angelic Lord, Dougal, George Bowen, Mind Of Madness, Mubtaghaa, Muhaarar, The Great War, Ustinov.
* Won in good time: Belardo, Ivawood, Jungle Cat, Lightning Strike.
* Marked by the racereader for a turn of foot: Dougal ‘quickened well’; Ivawood ‘lengthened nicely’; The Great War ‘very quick’; Ustinov ‘picked up nicely.’
* Racing Post Top Speed: Mind Of Madness, Mubtaghaa, Jungle Cat, Ivawood.
Meanwhile we’re also ‘best guessing’ in the two other Group races today, with another John Gosden St Leger horse, Forever Now, and Sir Michael Stoute’s massivrly progressive Arab Spring, to be backed more on potential than what we know on the racecourse.
I rarely do that but such is the control of J Gosden and M Stoute over these respective races, and such is the depth of Gosden’s three-year-old power, that I think one will win, two may well.
1.40 Newmarket (Bahrain Trophy) Gosden is going for a four-timer in this. None among his hat-trick was outright favourite, but one of them went on to win the Leger.
I took 17.0 on BETDAQ for Doncaster this morning Gosden’s runaway maiden winner Forever Now (brother to a previous winner of today’s race). Mark Johnston’s Queen’s Vase winner, Hartnell, is also fancied in some books for the Leger.
But the (Listed) Vase was no sort of race this year, with only 10 runners, and those Hartrnell beat could muster only maiden wins and success in minor handicaps.
Bunker and Odeon, behind in the Dante and the King Edward V11 Stakes, are likely to set the pace here. Windshear was also beaten i(n the King George V Handicap) at the big Ascot meeting.
Rain might help the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner, Honor Bound, to bounce back but the best guess is Forever Now.
At this stage, Forever Now has a mountain to climb if he is to win the St Leger, but he could take this race, as base camp on that climb, and there is nothing definite about the participation of stablemate Romsdal or the ground-dependent Kingston Hill at Doncaster.
2.10 Newmarket (July Stakes) Team Hannon are 1411 in this in the last four years, yet none of them favourite, and their Ivawood is the only runner to fit all aspects of my rough-and-ready guide to speed for this race, and is related to Royal Lodge and May Hill winners.
Second and fourth from Ivawood’s Sandown success in June have both won since, whereas Belardo’s confident Yarmouth win came at the expense of animals with no winning form before or after.
Since his slow-time win here at Newmarket (Rowley Mile course), Mind Of Madness has been down the field in the Windsor Castle Stakes but runner-up in the Norfolk two days later, albeit to a Hannon colt, Baitha Alga, which, incidentally, ‘quickened up well’ (The Great War only fifth).
Third, well in front of Mind Of Madness in the Windsor Castle (5f), was Mubtaghaa, noted doing his best work in the closing stages and likely to be suited by the step up to 6f in today’s race.
Jungle Cat was third in the Coventry, seemingly dramatically improved on his earlier run behind the winner, The Wow Factor, but may need further still.
Some behind Mind Of Madness in the Norfolk have been beaten since. So has the runner-up in the Windsor Castle.
Watch this July Stakes on TV, with a mind to speed and instant acceleration, with Ivawood my fancy and Belardo my next best.
Even Channel-4, notwithstanding the presence of Dougal, will no longer be chewing-gum for the eyes, if they take the race apart, and make a proper analysis of these factors.
2.40 Newmarket Sir Michael Stoute’s form figures in this since 2005 are 12121411 and, with Arab Spring and Hillstar well clear in the BETDAQ market this morning, he seems set to take the prize again.
Cavalryman, third last year, is hard to win with, and his four successes in five years have all been over 14 furlongs or more, and the year younger Dandino was a street behind Hillstar and Pethers Moon at Royal Ascot, albeit on his first run back.
Twice now, at Kempton in November and Ascot in May, Pethers Moon has come out better than Gatewood (needs rain) at the weights and it’s level peggings under the conditions of this race. Their winning form is only Listed level.
Arab Spring has been a Group horse in a handicap and is headed for the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc. Such targets, and his progressive form, suggest that he should take this in his stride, with the globetrotting American St leger winner Dandino (doesn’t want rain) best at the offers (10.5 on BETDAQ as I write) and Hilstar likely to settle for a place again.
3.15 Newmarket Madeed, who had only maiden winners behind him in the Feilden, stayed on well, seventh, drawn on the wrong side, in the Britannia (1m) at Royal Ascot.
Insaany, trying to step up two grades, is likely to ‘do a Johnston’ and take them along. He’s weighted accordingly, has got his ground and is a CD winner. Stablemate Torchlighter might go with him but is up in trip and carries a penalty.
Mange All set the pace at Beverley but they will try to hold on to him, with a view to getting this extra quarter-mile; ‘could be anything’ category. Our Gabrial’s only turf win was Chester, and that’s always suspect.
What About Carlo is so highly regarded that he was entered in the Eclipse, and made it look easy at Epsom a month back. No wonder. He beat only maiden winners that day.
Mount Logan still has an entry in the Great Voltigeur (Group-2)
In a race like this, we should look for likely improvers from those lightly raced: Mount Logan, Madeed and Mange All have run only once or twice this season.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet staked for 20 points profit, except Dandino, backed for a place to win 10 points)
BET 6pts win FOREVER NOW (1.40 Newmarket)
BET 6.25pts win IVAWOOD and 4.3pts win BELARDO (2.10 Newmarket)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ARAB SPRING, and 1pt win and 5pts place DANDINO (2.40 Newmarket)
BET 5pts win MOUNT LOGAN and 4pts win MANGE ALL (3.15 Newmarket)
ANTE-POST: BET 1.25pts win FOREVER NOW (17.0, St Leger, Doncaster, September)
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