3-1 NAP IN WINNER-A-DAY STRIKE: Daqman’s bid for a winner a day for a week was landed in style yesterday with a late-night 3-1 nap at Kempton. His outsiders were huge value on BETDAQ (7.8 to 10-3 SP (Beltane) and 12.0 to 17-2 SP) but didn’t perform. Daqman tries again today.
WON 3-1 CHANGE SINGS (Wednesday nap) BETDAQ 4.1
WON 9-4 CRIMSON ROAD (Tuesday) BETDAQ XSP 3.57
WON 11-2 MYSTERY MONARCH (Monday) BETDAQ 7.71 taken
WON 6-4 MQSE DE SEVIGNE (Sunday)
WON 9-2 INISHERIN (Saturday)
WON 10-11 ROSALLION (supernap) Haatem 2nd 6-1 same race
WON 9-4 ELECTRIC STORM (Friday nap) BETDAQ 6.4 taken
WON 1-2 ROYAL RHYME (Thursday supernap)
ABC CLASSIC GUIDE: Today Daqman follows yesterday’s Oaks guide with an ABC assessment of the Derby runners and has a sporting nap at 7.7 on BETDAQ this morning.
YOUR DERBY BETTING WISDOM
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Saturday (The Derby) DRAW: winners by stall (14 years): 8, 7, 5, 10, 12, 8, 9, 14, 10, 7, 12, 1, 12, 10; gates 7-12 best (11-14).
WINNER’S OFFICIAL RATING: 108, 113, 121, 109, 119, 118, 110, 109, 117, 118, –-, 121, 117, 124
WINNING TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 9, Charlie Appleby 2.
JOCKEYS: Ryan Moore 3, William Buick 1, Richard Kingscote 1.
KEY TO WINNER FINDING
A RATING 109 or higher (13/14)
B FORM won or placed Group race or Trial (13/14)
C STAMINA on the racecourse or in the breeding.
D TRAINER Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby
ABCD ANCIENT WISDOM Third to subsequent Irish Guineas winner Rosallion last July (7f) and won the Doncaster Futurity (1m heavy) from recent German Guineas hero Devil’s Point and God’s Window, with Deira Mile fourth, Dancing Gemini fifth, Diego Velasquez sixth. Runner-up in the Dante, just ahead of War Rooms, well in front of Gods Window (winner Economics swerves the Derby).
ABCD CITY OF TROY Beat Haatem (7f) last July and the same colt even further in the Dewhurst (7f soft) as a 2yo but sensationally flopped at odds-on on the same course in the 2,000 Guineas, around 12 lengths off the third Haatem, who was a close second in the Irish 2,000.
ABCD DIEGO VELASQUEZ Won the Champions Juvenile at Leopardstown (1m good) but down the field on heavy in the Doncaster Futurity (see Ancient Wisdom) and French Guineas fourth on soft (see Dancing Gemini)
ABCD LOS ANGELES Won the Saint-Cloud Criterium (1m 2f, very soft) from Illinois (see Ambiente Friendly) in October and the Leopardstown Derby Trial on reappearance (1m 2f good). Big horse, lazy at home, so could improve plenty with track experience.
ABC AMBIENTE FRIENDLY Well-beaten third to Ancient Wisdom in October (1m soft) and modest return, fourth in the Feilden Stakes, but ran clean away from his field in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Second colt home, Illinois, got within a length of Los Angeles at Saint-Cloud in October (see above).
AB DANCING GEMINI Doubtful for the Derby trip; fifth to Ancient Wisdom in the Doncaster Futurity after winning a Listed on the course. Beaten only half a length in the French 2,000 Guineas, with Diego Velasquez another half length back in fourth.
AB DEIRA MILE Fourth in the Doncaster Futurity and won his Derby prep in April. Doubtful stamina to my reckoning.
BCD EUPHORIC Tried to make all in the Leopardstown Derby Trial but caught by Los Angeles (see above).
BCD ILLINOIS Brother to Group-3 winners. See Ambiente Friendly. See Dallas Star.
BC DALLAS STAR Seen as an Ebor horse by the stable until making most in the Ballysax (1m 2f heavy) in April, five lengths up on Illinois.
BC MACDUFF Royal Lodge fourth and Sandown Classic Trial runner-up (winner misses the Derby), with Portland fourth.
BD GODS WINDOW Insufficient stamina in his pedigree. See Ancient Wisdom
BD PORTLAND A nearly horse at all levels; won a four-runner handicap from eight starts.
B BELLUM JUSTUM Doubtful for the Derby trip, though winner of a modest-looking Blue Riband trial at Epsom.
C KAMBOO Dual Kempton novice winner, bred for stamina but short on class.
C MR HAMPSTEAD Still a maiden. See Voyage.
C SAYEDATY SADATY Won 1m novice at Kempton (1-7); should have plenty of stamina but short on class.
C TABLETALK Good sort but not break his maiden until 23 days ago at Chelmsford. Unexposed middle-distance handicapper at this stage. The runner-up at Chelmsford, Hajara, could tell us a little more tomorrow (4.15 Chepstow).
C VOYAGE Trained by Richard Hannon, who is a Classic winner already this year. Son of Golden Horn out of a Galileo mare is well equipped for the task on breeding and has won his prep (Mr Hampstead fourth), but short on experience and may need more time.
– PADESHA Two-race maiden, not bred for stamina.
FRIENDLY STABLE: NO PENALTY
⭕ 2.20 Lingfield Under the spotlight with his Derby hope, Ambiente Friendly, James Fanshawe has called on Oisin Murphy to complete the hat-trick today for Wannabe Brave.
Murphy won on him at Wolverhampton, but the Brave escapes a penalty here after backing that up in an apprentice race at Chelmsford. Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.85 taken.
ROGUE NOW A SMART HORSE
⭕ 4.20 Ripon At the weights, Baryshnikov should reverse last year’s firm-ground one-two with Cockalorum in this race; both scored on the soft afterwards.
Ey Up It’s The Boss is 221 at Ripon but his winning form there, and elsewhere around the country, is in class 5 and 6, so he is claimed off to try to outweigh – literally – a 5lb penalty for scoring here 11 days back.
Loyal Touch has no winning form in today’s conditions; in fact, only one turf win (1-10) in any conditions!
Zarabanda won three times on the soft last season but, since November, has created the four-timer no one wants: last of 17, last of 8, last of 8, last of 8. There are eight runners here, so where do you think he might finish?
Titian has a modest strike rate though slightly better than his stable’s current 1-15.
But, in a poor contest, course winner Rogue Sea is ‘expected’, with the booking of Billy Loughnane significant. It’s his first ride for the trainer. Smart move!
It’s Rogue Sea’s debut for Bryan Smart, after 259 days off and a gelding op, which seems to have solved his eponymous rogue label. He has been working ‘really well’ and is BETDAQ value at 7.7.
Six of the stable’s last seven runners have been placed; just one won but the others finished less than three lengths off the winner.
WINNERS WHEREVER HE GOES
⭕ 7.25 Carlisle Sir Mark Prescott has potted four first prizes in the last 10 days in a scattergun approach: 14 runners at nine different venues.
The winners came at Goodwood, Salisbury, Hanover and Nottingham. He took the Salisbury race with one five times defeated but the winning favourite on the day.
Could similar ‘form’ be repeated by Top Flight Century, returning after 173 days with four duck-eggs on AW to his name. Making his handicap debut at 4.7 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN BETS
2.20 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.5pts win WANNABE BRAVE
4.20 Ripon (win 40, nap)
BET 6pts win ROGUE SEA
7.25 Carlisle (win 11)
BET 3pts win TOP FLIGHT CENTURY
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