77 WAYS TO WIN WITH DAQMAN: For the second day this week, Daqman landed his nap yesterday – number 77 this year – and for the second day this week, he made a profit on the day with his exclusive staking plan.
★ WON 11-10 BUCCABAY (Wednesday) Profit on the day 3.20
★ WON 5-4 SECRET HANDSHEIKH (Monday) Profit on the day: 5.40
BETTING ON A DETTORI SWITCH: It’s three on three in the battle for the St Leger between Aidan O’Brien and John and Thady Gosden, with a new twist: Team Gosden’s Gregory heads the market, but there’s bound to be movement this morning with news of Frankie Dettori’s likely switch to stablemate, Arrest, because of the soft ground. Daqman’s form and ratings opens with news of his ante-post bet.
DAQMAN FANS’ TOWERING 25-1
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster, Saturday (St Leger): Just 15 days on from my St Leger preview, I’m celebrating my ante-post bet (26.0 Tower Of London) on Betdaq Betting Exchange of course.
What you always hope for ante-post has happened: Tower Of London is now only around 10-1 and stands his ground as one of three Aidan O’Brien runners, with a good word from Ballydoyle: ‘He’s been progressing since the Spring, and we really like him.’
With around 15 points of ‘overs’, I can lay him; back the rest of the field; or sell some of my edge.
I’d be tempted to go in again, if I thought Ryan Moore would ride him but, ‘though not set in stone,’ the Ballydoyle word on their number-one rider is that he is most likely to partner Continuous. Here are the ratings and form:
115 CONTINUOUS (Aidan O’Brien) Runner-up to Derby second King Of Steel in the King Edward V11 Stakes at Royal Ascot. Despite needing the run, was easy winner of the Great Voltigeur from Castle Way with Gregory only third.
114 ARREST (John and Thady Gosden) Derby favourite but put in his place by Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel, who then trounced him at Royal Ascot. The firm ground was blamed for both defeats; Doncaster is soft.
111 GREGORY (John and Thady Gosden) Winner of the 1m 6f Queens Vase, but a cowboy ride by Frankie Dettori sent him clear at so fast a pace in the Great Voltigeur that he was unable to resist late challengers.
110 DESERT HERO (William Haggas) The royal runner stepped up from handicaps to win the Gordon Stakes (Group 3) at Goodwood on soft which, though the 106-rated runner-up was only a neck behind, prompted the handicapper to raise him to 110, which is a couple of pounds too high for me.
109 CHESSPIECE (Simon and Ed Crisford) Well beaten by Gregory – five lengths and more – in the Queens Vase but put up to 106 before his Gordon Stakes neck-and-neck finish with Desert Hero (see above).
109 TOWER OF LONDON (Aidan O’Brien) Ulster Derby winner (1m 5f) was odds on for the Bahrain Trophy at that trip, beaten a head, the winner going on to defeat by Continuous and Castle Way in the Great Voltigeur (see Continuous).
102 MIDDLE EARTH (John and Thady Gosden) Melrose Handicap winner (1m 6f) at York, may be third best of the Gosden trio.
102 DENMARK (Aidan O’Brien) ran last Saturday
101 ALEXANDROPOULOS (Aidan O’Brien) Long breaks between races reduces confidence and disguises the form. Likely pacemaker to Continuous and Tower Of London.
SOUND AS A BELL ON THE SOFT
⭕ 1.50 Doncaster today (6.5f fillies’ nursery): The pace filly, Bellarchi (stall 3), is likely to tow the far side along and can cope with the extra distance, only 4lb worse off after completing her hat-trick (6f Hamilton). She has run well on soft and 8.6 looked big in the BETDAQ market.
Chic Columbine’s sire was all about fast ground in America, but Cry Fiction, well drawn behind the pace out of gate 4, could be worth a ‘tickle’ as a 26.0 outsider.
She was second in a Listed and had tough tasks in the Group-3 Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot and the Sweet Solera on the July Course. Her dam’s family loved this surface.
BIG-FIELD SPRINT A THRILLER
⭕ 2.25 Doncaster (Weatherbys £300k 2YO Stakes): The far side did best in this last year, though it’s safest to have one running for you on the stands rails, too, with results in the decade showing wins for stalls 1, 3, 3, 3, but also for 15, 15, 16, 20, 20.
Kevin Ryan has two low drawn but is in poor form (0-28). Andrew Balding has three in single-figure stalls and might provide an upset: he’s won this race twice in the last four years.
But Richard Fahey could be the trainer to follow: he has won this twice with outsiders, and we know that Flaccianello (stall 6) likes soft ground: BETDAQ 23.0.
On the other side, Johannes Brahms (gate 17), who has top-class form on firm ground, might not be troubled by soft, as a son of Siyouni.
Komat (15) has run well in a couple of significant Group-3 Ascot tests, the Albany and the Princess Margaret. Kodiak Thriller could be the business after a break, well drawn in 16; Kodiaks don’t mind cut in the ground: BETDAQ 24.0
DARNATION PRESTIGE DOUBLE
⭕ 3.00 Doncaster (May Hill Stakes 2YO fillies, 1m): Inspiral doubled up in the Fillies Mile when she won this in 2021, odds on in both. But cut in the ground handed the race to a 40-1 outsider last year, when the favourite – a winner on firm – didn’t perform.
Darnation won the Prestige at Goodwood on the soft (Hard To Resist third), whereas there are doubts about Romanova: on the ground and whether the hood, which helped her impress at Salisbury, will work again.
SOFTER THE BETTER FOR SAM
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster (Park Hill Fillies Stakes, 1m 6.5f): Team Gosden has won this fillies’ St Leger three times in the last four years, their hold on the race broken only by Joseph O’Brien in 2020.
Shamwari has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft but his American sire, Justify, had another son, City Of Troy, score impressively on good to soft at Newmarket.
The dam of Team Gosden’s One Evening is out of a soft-ground sire, Pivotal, and the Coles’ Sumo Sam won the Lillie Langtry at Goodwood in deep ground. Crack Of Light and Boogie Woogie have been placed at Group-3 level.
But the danger to Sumo Sam may be Golden Lyra, who was staying on at Deauville in the Prix de Pomone.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Doncaster (win 30)
BET 4pts win and place BELLARCHI
BET 1pt win and place CRY FICTION
2.25 Doncaster (win 30)
BET 2pt win and place FLACCIANELLO
BET 2pts win and place KODIAC THRILLER
3.00 Doncaster (win 12, nap)
BET 8pts win DARNATION
3.35 Doncaster (win 20 each)
BET 4pts win SUMO SAM
BET 3.5pts win GOLDEN LYRA
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
