BULL’S-EYE BET ON FILLIES ST LEGER DAY: Daqman reckons Roger Varian (trainer) and Frankie Dettori (jockey) the names to follow on fillies’ St Leger day at Doncaster with the nap on one and a bull’s-eye bet on the other.
10 LEFT IN SATURDAY’S FINAL CLASSIC: Saturday’s Leger proper had 10 declared this morning, eight of them within the stats and ratings required.
> TOMORROW: the Doncaster Cup
SATURDAY LEGER FORM AND RATINGS
⭕ 3.35 Doncaster, Saturday (St Leger) Favourites do well in the final Classic: 17 out of 22 placed, nine of them winners. These are the ratings of the top eight probables which have been placed in a Group race (75% of winners in 20 years).
120 HURRICANE LANE Frankel colt beaten only once this year when third in the Epsom Derby (Mojo Star 3.25 lengths in front of him, second). Won Dante Stakes, Irish Derby, Grand Prix de Paris. Dam stayed up to 2m
114 MOJO STAR Epsom Derby second but more than nine lengths behind Hurricane Lane in the Irish version (only minor headway, hampered, stayed on). Last run was maiden win at Newbury.
111 OTTOMAN EMPEROR Four straight wins, rising up the ladder almost as quickly as his trainer, Johnny Murtagh! Gordon Stakes strike at Goodwood his first Group success. Further improvement likely but no encouragement in his breeding for extra distance.
111 THE MEDITERRANEAN Seemingly not suited by very soft ground at Royal Ascot and in seven-lengths-plus defeat by Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Longchamp. Form on good: 122. Runner-up in the Great Voltigeur from Youth Spirit (third), Sir Lucan (fourth) and Scope (fifth).
110 HIGH DEFINITION Galileo out of a mare related to Mystical Lady. Highly regarded two-year-old (won the Beresford) and reappearance third in the Dante, just two lengths off Hurricane Lane.
But hampered early, eased, 10/11 in the Irish Derby and, sweating, flopped nearly eight lengths as favourite for the Great Voltigeur; Youth Spirit (third), Sir Lucan (fourth), Scope (fifth).
110 SIR LUCAN Beat Wordsworth (now rated 111) at Navan in May over 1m 5f, running on. Half-length second to Ottoman Emperor at Goodwood, and cheekpieces tried when only fourth in the Great Voltigeur.
110 YOUTH SPIRIT Won the Chester Vase Derby trial but only eighth at Epsom; seemed not to stay. Fourth at Goodwood to Ottoman Emperor; third in the Great Voltigeur.
105 FERNANDO VICHI Beat The Mediterranean at Leopardstown in June before twice hampered in the Irish Derby behind Hurricane Lane. Stayed 1m 6f, and looked a decent stayer, when second, back at Leopardstown the last day.
Also engaged: Interpretation and Scope (10 declared)
WE WANT ANOTHER SUMMER’S DAY
⭕ 1.40 Doncaster today I gave you early-bird Town Moor tips in Tuesday’s preview of the two-year-olds races today: Gnat Alley in this nursery and Jazz Club in the Sales race.
Gnat Alley has been well primed over the minimum for the step up by a furlong and a half for this Doncaster nursery. Trainer Tim Easterby is 108 for the year, and Gnat Alley (stall 8) gets in off a mark 17lb below the top weight, Dora Penny, who comes out of the one stall.
As we’ll see in the bigger field for the Sales race, low numbers have done best of the draw in recent years: in this one, last five results by stall 3, 2, 7, 10, 3.
It was a small field when Daiquiri Francais (stall 5 here) landed the odds at Windsor but the second filly, to which she gave 4lb, has scored twice since. However, that was on heavy ground.
On a line through the same runner-up in each case, Brighton winner Summer’s Day (out of 11 today) has plenty to spare on Newmarket scorer Dora Penny, yet that one gives Summer’s Day a pound.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.7 Summer’s Day, 6.1 Gnat Alley
JAZZ CLUB FOR TOP PLAYER VARIAN
⭕ 2.10 Doncaster (£200,000 2-Y-O Sales race) Favourites do badly; just one has won in the decade, with 100-1 and 33-1 strikes from the big sprint stable of Kevin Ryan’s and even a 20-1 hit by Aidan O’Brien.
I told you earlier in the week about Ryan Moore’s booking for Roger Varian, Jazz Club (drawn 7). He looked very strong at Windsor and is blinkered first time, which helped the Kevin Ryan 100-1 scorer, Morning Post in 2013.
What winners had in common (from 2011 to 2016) was a high draw: 13, 10, 15, 20, 20, 16, but that has switched in the last four years to low: 3, 3, 1, 3. And yesterday’s winners up to a mile came out of 2, 3, 9 and 1.
That’s good news for the favourite, the Kodi Bear colt Ever Given (out of 3), so far first (York) and fourth in Sales and auction events, which put earnings in his saddlebag of £111,000 as he lines up for today’s £98k-to-the-winner prize. But he has to break that favourite’s hoodoo.
Richard Hannon’s Symphony Perfect (from the one stall) has also finished in the first four in two of these huge-field 2-y-o sprints and has won £51k so far..
She hit a flat spot at York when nearly five lengths behind Ever Given, receiving the 5lb fillies’ allowance, same as today. It’s another half-furlong now and she was running on well at the finish.
Hannon has five runners including Oh Herberts Reign, running out of gate 2 today, with seven lengths to make up on Ever Given after running sixth in that York race.
A third Hannon, System (gate 13), will be in the hands of William Buick, who had three winners on the opening day at Doncaster yesterday.
But Roger Varian seems to have taken over from the Hannon domination of these Sales races and Jazz Club could give him his third winner of this in five years.
BETDAQ value 7.2 Jazz Club
DETTORI HAS WIND IN HIS SAILS
⭕ 3.15 Doncaster (Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes, Group 2) Four-year-olds are 7-3 up in the decade over second-season animals but will find the trio of three-year-old fillies hard to beat this afternoon.
Free Wind has won three from four this term, including one here, and broke into the pattern scene with a comfortable Group-3 strike at Deauville.
She beat the hot favourite, Burgarita, who had run third in the French Oaks, beaten only threeparts of a length by Joan of Arc.
On that form, Free Wind is better than the 16-1 being asked about her for the Champion Fillies And Mares in October and is improving all the time.
It’s less than three weeks since Yesyes had a battle royal over today’s trip with Dancing King at Chester. Save A Forest, fourth in Snowfall’s Epsom Oaks, had
Yesyes more than three lengths behind in a July Course Listed in July but that was two furlongs shorter.
If you strike out her poor run at Newbury the last day, Golden Pass is the winner: she beat Free Wind fair and square on the July Course but, again, that was 1m 4f and it may have been the longer trip that found her out at Newbury.
Frankie Dettori, likely to have had an armchair ride earlier on Inspiral (2.40 May Hill Stakes), has won this Park Hill ‘fillies St Leger’ five times and Free Wind would be another record for the 50-year-old.
BETDAQ value 3.4 Free Wind
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 4.35pts win SUMMER’S DAY
BET 4pts win GNAT ALLEY
2.10 Doncaster (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8pts win JAZZ CLUB
3.15 Doncaster (win 20 nap)
BET 8.25pts win FREE WIND
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
