5-1 BOUNCE IN DAQMAN’S DONCASTER BETS: Despite the whacky races of apprentice handicap, Leger Legends and now Jump Jockeys Derby, Daqman managed to pay most of the bills yesterday when he predicted ‘Blues ready to bounce back.’ Daqman’s Monday preview also named Bounce The Blues (won 5-1) in advance of the race with a LAYS LOGIC warning against the favourite!
DAQMAN IS AHEAD OF PRICEWISE BY 45-35: Terrestrial TV is back for fillies’ day on Town Moor: a nursery, the May Hill and the Park Hill, hard graft for the value hunters, Daqman v. Pricewise, currently 45-35 for the season. Can Daqman hit the 50 with three more days at Doncaster to go, plus the big Irish meetings on a weekend of two St Legers?
CRIME TO MISS EASTERBY GREY
I’M PLAYING 33.0 ABOUT PJANOO
THIBAULT IN SECOND DERBY BID
FRANKNESS MOWS DOWN GRASS
ESHAADA FILLIES’ LEGER CHAMP
VARIAN DOUBLE ON THE CARDS
CRIME TO MISS EASTERBY GREY
⭕ 1.25 Doncaster (6.5f fillies’ nursery) Karl Burke, who has won this twice in the last five years from a low draw, has Cathy Come Home suitably installed in 4 but with the huge task of giving weight all round, up to 21lb in three cases.
Eighth in the Albany at Royal Ascot, Cathy was stopped in her run at York behind hat-trick star Streets Of Gold, when Misty Blues (received a stone) was second.
Speriamo was giving weight when second to Misty Blues at Pontefract; they are rehandicapped accordingly but Misty is claimed off.
It all looks tight and ‘iffy’, and there is an unexposed Ralph Beckett which catches the eye: Palm Lily.
But the one I like is featherweighted Crime Fiction, a Tim Easterby stablemate to Misty Blues. Tim should know the time of day and the grey filly, out of a Mayson mare, disposed of a big field at Redcar in late August.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 19.0 Crime Fiction
I’M PLAYING 33.0 ABOUT PJANOO
⭕ 2.00 Doncaster (£300,000 2yo Stakes) Low numbers seemed to have the edge on the straight course yesterday but you really need to back one either side in an extended sprint.
Low stalls won four in a row in this race – three from stall 3 – from the far-side group up to last year when stall 15 restored a sequence of 15, 20, 20, 16 for the nearside from 2013 to 2016.
There’s an unrelenting gallop over 6.5f – just that bit more to tough out – and there are no distance winners in the race today. A known 7f player might seem useful, but it doesn’t seem to work that way.
LAYS LOGIC: It’s unusual (1-10) for anything to win carrying more than 8st 12lb; favourites have a similar stat: 1-10; no winners in nine years, in fact; not a one.
FORM: Andrew Balding, who has won two of the last three (from gate 1 and gate 15) has the one stall today for Holguin, second of three to Persian Force at Newbury but left a long way behind that one in the Coventry.
The booking of William Buick, who has a 29% strike rate for Balding this season, suggests he is as much laid out for this as Bounce The Blues yesterday.
Another winner drawn low today, Swift Asset, was also well beaten when trying the pattern, in the Group-2 Richmond Stakes. Similarly, Cold Case was a well-beaten third in the Gimcrack, and Hectic sixth in the Acomb. Which one, if any, can get back on track, down in grade?
Alpha Capture seemed likely to step up on his Carlisle strike; he ran green, hence the cheekpieces today. Others low drawn look exposed.
On the other side, I pass on a tip for Pjanoo (stall 14), a maiden but with Daniel Tudhope booked by Richard Spencer (they have a 75% strike rate together).
Spencer has run Waiting All Night (stall 12 today) in Group 2 against the likes of Persian Force and Bradsel and, with his pair in high stalls together, they could get involved.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Holguin, 12.5 Waiting All Night, 33 Pjanoo
THIBAULT IN SECOND DERBY BID
⭕ 2.15 Epsom (Jump Jockeys’ Derby) Jamie Moore (Enthused) and Tom Cannon (Militry Decoration) have each won two of these.
Cannon out of stall 10, along with Lee Edwards (Niblawi in 11), Harry Cobden (Rozalia 12) and Brendan Powell (Bad Company 13) are going to have to get an early position up the hill start in this biggest field since Rossetti won it in 2013.
Rossetti did exactly that and relaxed into third before the top turn. Of the high-stalls quartet today, Militry Decoration is a rear runner. Bad Company (13) isn’t but he’s never raced as far as today’s trip, so is unlikely to be ‘asked’ anything early.
I expect Enthused (9) to be prominent, along with Duesenberg (3), whose stable has just had 8 out of 10 runners placed.
Thibault was a 25-1 punt for me at the last Epsom meeting when runner-up in the Amateurs’ Derby. Tom Scudamore takes over.
BETDAQ value 4.8 Thibault, 19.5 Duesenberg
FRANKNESS MOWS DOWN GRASS
⭕ 2.35 Doncaster (May Hill Stakes, 2yo Group 2) William Buick has gone 151-136 clear of Hollie Doyle, with an astonishing 27% strike rate, thanks largely to Charlie Appleby and it may be off-putting for Dance In The Grass punters, and favourites fans, that his tally for Team Johnston is less than 5% (1-22).
As stats attackers always say: Dance In The Grass doesn’t know that! And her defeat of Fairy Cross at Sandown was boosted at the end of last month by her Group-3 strike at Goodwood.
The losing jockey at Sandown who went on to score at Goodwood? William Buick. So he knows what’s needed but I would normally look for better than evens in a field of latent fillies, in which the favourite is 6-4 down over the decade.
If we knew her only on breeding (Frankel out of a Dubawi mare), we would still be fearful of Frankness. In fact, she is making rapid progress on the track, though theoretically has to make a 20lb leap into the May Hill limelight.
One for next year is the Nathaniel winner in the one stall, Perfect Prophet, but today I’m right over the other side of the stalls with Frankness in 10.
BETDAQ value 5.1 Frankness
ESHAADA FILLIES LEGER CHAMP
⭕ 3.10 Doncaster (Park Hill Stakes) The fillies’ St Leger, in which four-year-olds are beating the three-year-olds 6-4.
If you follow the leading trainers – (Team Gosden 3), Ralph Beckett 2) – you can pick from both age groups.
Beckett seemingly had a good thing for the race in Galtres winner Haskoy, but he has supplemented her for Saturday’s St Leger, with Frankie Dettori booked to ride.
That leaves Beckett with Yesyes (Rob Hornby), who was third in the race last year and stayed on to be fourth on her belated reappearance over the Park Hill trip at Glorious Goodwood.
The Goodwood runner-up Urban Artist renews rivalry but Beckett has River Of Stars (Richard Kingscote) in support, though she needs a big step up for this.
Roger Varian also runs two, Eshaada, Group-1 (British Champion Fillies and Mares) winner at Ascot in October, and Believe In Love, Group 3 winner at the York Dante meeting when there was cut in the ground but fourth as an outsider when Eshaada was joint favourite, third, in the Lancashire Oaks.
VARIAN DOUBLE ON THE CARDS
⭕ 3.45 Doncaster (7f handicap) Roger Varian has won this twice in the last five years and I’m napping Zainalarab. He can follow up Eshaada in the previous race, or be the compensation (both around 2-1). I can’t see the yard losing both races.
On the first two days of the month, Varian had a fantastic spell of 5-8 and he’s had four more since, taking his current form to 13-40 in the last 14 days (33%) and 96 for the season.
Vatican has booked Jim Crowley for Zainalarab, who has climbed the handicap with a hat-trick, all three on good or firm when the stable thought he wanted soft.
We can assume he’ll do even better on the easier surface today. Yesterday’s returns were on ‘good, good to soft’, with times of races all slower than average.
Stablemate Mystery Fox (David Egan booked) is a soft-ground winner and could improve, along with the Haggas runner, Spirit Of Nguru.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Doncaster (win 50, place win 10)
BET 2.75pts win and 2.25pts place CRIME FICTION
2.00 Doncaster (win 50)
BET 5.25pts win HOLGUIN
BET 4.25pts win WAITING ALL NIGHT
BET 1.5pts win PJANOO
2.15 Epsom (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.2pts win DUESENBERG
BET 2.5pts win THIBAULT
2.35 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 5pts win FRANKNESS
3.10 Doncaster (win 20)
BET 10pts win ESHAADA
3.35 Doncaster (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win ZAINALARAB
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