3-1 DAQMAN NAP AND ALL PLACED: Daqman took his returns over two days to 13231312 yesterday, landing his nap at 3-1 and another overall profit.
Wednesday: 3.50 points profit on the day
WON 3-1 EARL OF TYRONE (nap)
Tuesday: 10.75 points profit on the day
WON 2-1 SHIGHNESS
WON 11-8 BIT HARSH
GRAND NATIONAL STATS SPECIAL: You can’t hope to pick the Grand National winner from 85 entries, mostly Irish, but there are vital short cuts to looking in the right area for an ante-post bet. Today: the age and rating. Tomorrow: where the winners come from.
GRAND NATIONAL: IRISH TOP 10
The stats have changed. Grand National winners now seem limited to young horses at Gold Cup entry level and are 70% Irish.
So, for an early fix on the race, you would do well to concentrate on raiders of a single-figure age with 146-160 rating, checking out Where The Winners Come From tomorrow.
Conflated (168), Hewick and Noble Yeats (both 167) and The Big Dog (158) could yet come into the Irish reckoning for the April 15 race, depending on the weights, which are published on Tuesday, February 21 before forfeit stages on March 7 and 28.
160 Capodanno (Willie Mullins) Brown Advisory fourth at the Cheltenham Festival to L’Homme Presse before impressive Punchestown Champion Novice win.
157 Franco De Port (Willie Mullins) Second to Longhouse Poet in the Thyestes and third in the Paris Grand Prix (3m 6f) but has failed to place in Grade-1 since.
155 Lifetime Ambition (Jessica Harrington) Improved 10lb since Punchestown Champion Novice runner-up to Capodanno; fourth over the National fences in the Grand Sefton; second in the Troytown, third in the John Durkan.
154 Longhouse Poet (Martin Brassil) Thyestes winner, sixth in the National last year, has kept his weight down with three hurdles runs (one win) this season.
152 Pencilfulloflead (Gordon Elliott) Returned to his hot novice form (won the Florida Pearl) when running-on third in the Thyestes last month.
150 Escaria Ten (Gordon Elliott) Beaten a nose in the Bobbyjo before ninth in last years’ Grand National. Seventh in the Thyestes the last day.
149 Farclas (Gordon Elliott) Fifth in the 2021 Grand National and second in the Troytown. Failed to finish in two races since.
146 Ain’t That A Shame (Henry De Bromhead) Placed behind top-class Stattler and then Galopin Des Champs before Munster National second – headed final strides – to The Big Dog, and fourth in the Big Christmas chase at Leopardstown, giving weight to the first three but beaten only about a length in total.
146 Coko Beach (Gordon Elliott) Eighth in last year’s Grand National. Fourth in both the Munster National and the Thyestes this season.
146 Lord Lariat (Dermot McLoughlin) Won the Irish Grand National last April (Fairyhouse, 3m 5f), going clear approaching the last. Quiet since.
HAVE SOME SILVER ON FLYER
⭕ 2.50 Doncaster The delicate Blue Stello, who would have been having only his third race under Rules in 15 months, and Imperial Storm, who lost his form the last day, were both withdrawn this morning.
Just when I was going to recommend the tough and stamina-laden Silver Flyer at a value price for Donald McCain and Brian Hughes. I think we will stick with him on the surface.
Revels Hill drops back to hurdles and down a grade from his chase second at Ascot and fourth in the London National at Sandown.
He has improved a stone over fences so the handicapper has put him up the same amount for this return to the smaller obstacles for the first time in nearly two years. Problematic.
Conditions also suit Romeo Brown but his two wins in the last six starts both came as a shock: 20-1 and 50-1. Johnsons Blue is up 36lb for six wins in nine starts since last March.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 3.05 Silver Flyer
I LIKE MARBLE FOR MEMORIAL
⭕ 3.00 Huntingdon (Sidney Banks Memorial Novices Hurdle) Vinndication (2018) and Shishkin (2020) both won this in a sequence of success and Rare Edition seems likely to continue his own run, currently four in a row, including one here at Doncaster.
But can he cope with the extra half-mile or so? Charlie Longsdon said after the gelding’s Kempton win on Boxing Day: ‘I think he’ll get two and a half miles but I wouldn’t be thinking of stepping up yet.’
We are not privileged to know what has changed his mind but my guess is that he is among the stables shying away from the Willie Mullins dominated Supreme Novices and hoping this one has Ballymore credentials instead, starting today.
Rare Edition made all the last day and always travels strongly, so this is a test of tactics trying a new trip.
Interesting that Marble Sands would have been much shorter here but for tackling a Cheltenham Festival favourite the last day at Newbury, none other than the Ballymore favourite, Hermes Allen.
Marble Sands impressed me at Leicester – the runner-up has won since – and he hated the soft ground at Newbury.
Another conundrum in this: how much, if anything, has Persian Time improved at home since scoring at Ascot in November?
What we do know is that Nicky Henderson has been missing strike badly, with 12 consecutive runners in the first five for one measly winner when the favourite fell and only three finished at Wetherby.
Persian Time is not fancied in the market this morning and Ginnys Destiny likes a deep surface.
BETDAQ value Marble Sands is far too big at 7.6 and I can have a saver around even money on the favourite.
BOURBALI ON KEMPTON FORM
⭕ 4.10 Huntingdon Second in category to the Listed Sidney Banks, this class-2 handicap hurdle is no less tricky to analyse.
Sonigino is in a similar situation to Marble Sands: done all that was asked of him until attempting a Graded race on a top track (Cheltenham).
Moveit Like Minnie goes for three out of four under Finn Lambert but leaps two grades from class 4.
The other runner of the right age (six-year-olds have won five out of six) is Bourbali, who has solid form despite his stable’s poor run.
Bourbali has climbed 27lb, steadily going through the ranks, preferring good ground; gave weight and bumped run-in by a subsequent Grade 2 winner when they met in a big field at Kempton.
BETDAQ value 8.0 Bourbali.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.50 Doncaster (win 10 nap)
BET 5pts win SILVER FLYER
3.00 Huntingdon (win 20)
BET 3pts win MARBLE SANDS
BET 3pts win (stakes saver) RARE EDITION
4.10 Huntingdon (win 20)
BET 3pts win BOURBALI
Daq Multiples
BET 5 x 1pt win doubles the above
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.
