WHY YOU SHOULD FOLLOW THE FESTIVAL MARKETS: Who will be champion trainer? Who has Cheltenham sorted? Daqman meets a stats anorak who has a simple formula. He claims that the festival markets reveal the stable squads that you should follow for the rest of the season.
EXETER: DAQMAN heads to Exeter on Thursday for three bets. The card survived a morning inspection but it’s heavy ground and he takes this into account.
WHY I’M BLANKING NICHOLLS
Back or lay Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls? I don’t usually bet on title races and leading trainers at Cheltenham, that sort of thing. But I know a man who does, and he comes up with tables and charts at this time of year which produce surprising results.
Just as the Premier League title is invariably a foregone conclusion for the leader on New Year’s Day, he has his golden rules for racing which seemingly see into the future.
Willie Mullins ‘made all’ for the Irish jumps-trainers title last season but will not win this time. Nor will he win Cheltenham. Paul Nicholls took the English title back from Nicky Henderson but will give it away again this season.
How does yer man reckon these outcomes? He says that a simple list of favourites for Cheltenham compiled on Christmas Day will tell you all you need to know about where the money is going.
Of the 17 big Cheltenham prizemoney races, Paul Nicholls’ score is currently NIL. Not a Ditcheat favourite among them.
But Gordon Elliott, already in front in the Irish title race, is 5-3 clear of Willie Mullins for festival favorites at this time.
Too simplistic for you? Or an eye-opener? My man insists that it’s reliable and easier than raking over the entrails of the racing form like some crazy Haruspex.
Of what further use is the following table of current favourites for those 17 Cheltenham races? Well, this is where it gets interesting. The idea is that, like Liverpool, the best stables have a strong squad of good players.
If you follow the trainers with these favourites, they will do best generally in each division, whether chasing, novices’ hurdles, mares’ races, whatever, because their stars are the tips of stable icebergs in a sea of potential winter winners. He’s certainly got something there.
GORDON ELLIOTT: Champagne Classic (NH Chase), Envoi Allen (Supreme Novices), Samcro (JLT), Sire Du Berlais (Pertemps Final), Tiger Roll (Cross-Country)
WILLIE MULLINS: Dolcita (Mares Novices’), Klassical Dream (Champion Hurdle), Laurina (Arkle),
NICKY HENDERSON: Altior (Champion Chase), Champ (RSA)
PHILIP HOBBS: Defi Du Seuil (Ryanair), Thyme Hill (Albert Bartlett)
HENRY DE BROMHEAD: Honeysuckle (Mares Hurdle)
EMMA LAVELLE: Paisley Park (Stayers’ Hurdle)
GARY MOORE: Goshen (Triumph Hurdle)
PHILIP ROWLEY: Hazel Hill (Foxhunters)
COLIN TIZZARD: Lostintranslation (Gold Cup)
IT’S MISTY AT EXETER
12.50 Exeter The card survived a morning inspection but expect nothing less than bottomless ground for today’s seven race card.
That should suit Misty Whisky in the opening mares’ novices’ hurdle. The Harry Fry trained runner has soft ground wins to her name at Ludlow and Sandown and was far from disgraced when seventh in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree earlier in the year.
Her jumping was very novicey on her first start over hurdles at Market Rasen but hopefully that has been brushed up and with ten experience of that run and more testing conditions today she should prove hard to beat here. Harry Fry has sent out three winners from his last 10 runners.
A big danger is the Venetia Williams trained Eleanor Bob who won well at Leicester earlier in the month on heavy ground. She hadn’t shown too much form prior to that and it didn’t look the strongest of contests so she might prove vulnerable under her resulting penalty.
2.50 Exeter A very competitive three mile handicap chase where the onus is very much on stamina in the conditions.
Many can be ruled out on the account of poor recent form and/or going doubts but one that’s gets plenty of ticks in the right boxes is the David Pipe (4 wins from last 21) trained Great Tempo.
His only win to date has come on heavy ground and the handicapper has given him a serious chance by dropping him a further 5lb after his Ffos Las fourth last time out. That was his first start since what appears to be a positive wind op and the extra distance should suit.
3.50 Exeter Little Red Lion can give Pipe and Fergus Gillard a double on the card. The five-year-old has already come in for morning support on BETDAQ.
He gets the heavy ground he seems to like, judged on his debut bumper effort at Ffos Las and whilst his three hurdles starts since (all on quicker ground) have been below par there is every chance he could show improvement on his handicap debut off a mark of 96 and in the muddier ground.
The favourite Urtheonethatiwant won well last time out at Ludlow and is up 7lb. His chance is obvious but also more than factored into his price.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 11.6pts win (nap) MISTY WHISKY (12.50 Exeter)
BET 1.7pts win GREAT TEMPO (2.50 Exeter)
BET 1.7pts win LITTLE RED LION (3.50 Exeter)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
