NATIONAL WINNERS’ CAREERS ‘WRECKED’ BY WEIGHTS RISE: Harvey Smith’s rage at the rise in the weights for his Grand National winner, Auroras Encore, prompts Daqman to claim in his column today that the handicapper ‘wrecks the careers of most winners.’
THEY LOST 87 OUT OF 88 RACES: Daqman digs out the facts and finds that the last 10 winners subsequently lost 88 times, barring one charity Flat race! Now read on:
Is Harvey Smith right? The answer’s in the form book. And I would go so far as to say that the weight imposition upon Grand National winners seems on the face of it to be as inhumane as any element that the race itself has ever been charged with.
It certainly wrecks the career of most winners, if the last decade is anything to go by, not merely by the blind adherence to handicapping rules but by hitting National winners even harder than the bare form of their success.
I have compiled a list of the last 10 Aintree winners and found that they lost 87 of their subsequent 88 races.
This is by way of completion of the front-page story in the Racing Post today but I also have the Post to thank for it, in that my compilation is from their website.
The one win from 88 is only because I included a ‘private charity’ race on the Flat which was won by Montys Pass at Cork two months after his Aintree triumph. I recorded only Rules racing so did not include the point-to-point success of Silver Birch on his reappearance run two years after Aintree.
You could say that the weights rise well and truly finished most winners off. It could be argued that the race itself was responsible, but that would all the more give pause to raising their weights.
The immediate hike in their ratings ranged from 9lb to 16lb. Despite virtually knocking them all out of contention in other races, three winners subsequently reached the frame again in the National itself.
My conclusion is that the handicapper should treat them as a special case, with a separate ratings list of the National and for the National. Otherwise don’t punish them for winning at Aintree.
The super-horse efforts of Red Rum and L’Escargot have left the National with a legacy which its winners still suffer from many years later.
Entirely contrary to handicapping rules, it seems that horses should be assessed afterwards as if they are NOT expected to win another race, but that they still have a chance in the National itself, if given a more lenient view than of late.
Otherwise, for other races, a National winner should be recognized for what he is: a horse who has given his all in a special race over a unique distance.
If rules are not made to be broken, they are certainly not there to break horses. In fact, when you think about it, to punish them for scoring in the National seems ludicrous.
We all say how much luck they need and what a grueling race it is. Then we fete the winner.. but make sure he never wins again!
Here are the facts, according to the records since their success of the last 10 Grand National winners:
Neptune Collonges (2011 winner off 157) Raised 11lb. Never raced again.
Ballabriggs (2010 winner off 150) Raised 10lb. Form since: 40P03P including 6th in 2012 National off 160 and pulled up this year off 152. Now dropped to 142 but will be 13 for next year’s race.
Don’t Push It (2010 winner off 143) Raised 9lb. Form after P00030, including 3rd in 2011 National off 160.
Mon Mome (2009 winner off 148) Raised 13lb. Form after P3403F02PP0P000300. Fell 2010 National off 155, pulled up 2012 off 145.
Comply Or Die (2008 winner off 139) Raised 15lb. Form after P00200000PP.
Silver Birch (2007 winner off 138) Raised 10lb. Form after 0F20200. Fell 2009 National off 148.
Numbersixvalverde (2006 winner off 138). Raised 9lb. Form after 4040.
Hedgehunter (2005 winner off 144). Raised 16lb. Form after 04222000P0020. Second 2006 National off 156; 13th in 2008 off 156.
Amberleigh House (2004 winner off 139). Raised 7lb. Form after 040400P0000P. Nationals: 10th 2005 off 146, PU 2006 off 139.
Monty’s Pass (2003 winner off 139). Raised 13lb. Form after 1000043F000. Nationals: 4th in 2004 off 153; 16th in 2005 off 149.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.7pts win and place SONG SUNG BLUE (3.00 Wincanton)
BET 10pts win (nap) HOWARD’S LEGACY (3.20 Fontwell)
BET 4.5pts win COOTEHILL and 3.7pts win DIVERS (3.40 Ludlow)
BET 2.5pts win FINE PARCHMENT (4.20 Fontwell)
BET 12pts win RESURGENT (5.35 Wincanton)
BET 4.6pts win ROCKALONG and 3pts win (stakes saver) NET WHIZZ (7.00 Kempton)
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