12-1 WINNER KEEPS OUTSIDER THREAD GOING: Daqman’s four-timer streak of big-race bets that have all won at least 50 points ended with Slowmotion (3rd 14-1) at Galway yesterday, as his best try at a fifth in the sequence, following winners at 50-1, 16-1, 6-1 and 16-5 on consecutive days. But he got his big-odds hit at Goodwood with Threading (WON 12-1 from 15.0 on BETDAQ).
18.0 TARGET LINED UP AS GALWAY BULL’S EYE: Daqman has four more goes at the bull’s eye today. He’s on the oche with 8.6 and 13.0 at Goodwood then goes to Galway for 17.0 and 18.0 BETDAQ offers. The challenge scores are Daqman 61, Pricewise 10, with 282 points separating them in a single-unit level-stakes assessment of profit.
* Pricewise races today: 1.50 and 2.25 Goodwood, and 4.35 Galway
BETDAQ VALUE RAINS SUPREME..
Punters were rinsed in the rain yesterday. But who would be a trainer, getting horses to peak for a clash like Churchill v Ribchester and the weather wins it for an outsider on a day of nearly 50mm of rain. That’s the 50-up I didn’t want!
You’ll now see races cutting up, more’s the pity, but at least no further rain is forecast for Goodwood’s Ladies’ Day today. We must hope for some better conditions for Saturday’s Stewards Cup.
Meanwhile, Ballybrit continues with centre-stage fare, the Galway Hurdle. The going on the Jumps course was much better than on the Flat track yesterday, but more rain was forecast for today.
I’m staying on the trail of big-odds outsiders (we’ve proved in the last week that BETDAQ odds are booming big value). Don’t be afraid of backing more than one horse in a race with such low overrounds. You do want to win, don’t you?
YOU MAY SWAY TO EMENEM SOUND
1.50 Goodwood Find something a few horses width from the rail (stalls 5 and 6 won five races yesterday) that can get an early position. Hard to catch in the ground. That’s the hopeful view.
Sir Percys have a massive 22% strike rate on heavy ground and Emenem (20p0) should be well in touch from gate 6. Adjacent in 5 is Hold Sway (9.4 offers), who made all in the wide open spaces of Newmarket. Seems sure to get a ‘pozzy’ and stay on up the hill.
Addeybb is a Pivotal so should love the conditions and you can put him anywhere in a but bobbing and weaving through this cavalry charge will be pivotal fror Ryan Moore from stall 13.
2.25 Goodwood (Lillie Langtry Stakes) The handicapper says that Wild Irish Rose (13.0 BETDAQ offers) improved nearly a stone in July and my man in the long (wet) grass tells me that you can forget Dubka’s last run. BETDAQ 8.6.
This Sir Michael Stoute improver (yes, another one!) loves the soft and stamina is not in doubt. Will be staying on when some have cried enough.
Melodic Melody has to make a big leap from class 3 to Group 3 and Endless Time, who is dropped down the ladder from Group 1, is your stakes saver.
3.00 Goodwod (Richmond Stakes) Instead of betting one of the short shots, July Stakes one-two Cardsharp and US Navy Flag (withdrawn as I write), or Headway, collaterally close to them, try a pound on Barraquero.
His Newbury third to Expert Eye, and subsequent six-lengths romp at Chepstow, now look better than ever after the Expert’s impressive Vintage Stakes: 9.6.
3.35 Goodwood (Nassau Stakes) The Sussex yesterday makes for nervous betting as the Nassau cuts up. I was going to move all in on Winter, of course, after her dual Guineas and Coronation treble.
But, like Ribchester and Churchill, she has to beat the ground as well as the other horse. Winter pays you around seven for five this morning if you fancy a banker bet.
Queen’s Trust has the Breeders’ Cup as her target but Sobetsu (7.4) raced a mile clear in the mud for the Saint-Alary before finding the gradients of Epsom a daunting task in Enable’s Oaks. Saved up for this.
IN-FORM FOX COULD SWAMP THEM
4.35 Galway Hurdle You are looking for a maximum age of seven, with last year’s success to a nine-year-old, Clondaw Warrior, coming in a weak contest of just 11 starters, only around half of today’s field.
The old Warrior is back, 12lb higher, making him 3lb worse off with the length-and-a-quarter third, Princely Conn, and the fifth horse home, Tigris River, has 7lb to try to turn around three and a half lengths.
Tigris River appeals, now aged six and back to form the last twice, Flat and Jumps, and with Barry Geraghty riding for the in-form Joseph O’Brien stable. Tigris River broke his maiden at this festival in 2015.
Second in the Northumberland Plate, second in the Galway Hurdle, second in the Melbourne Cup. That’s the record of another J P McManus runner, Max Dynamite, from the Willie Mullins’ team, which were second in the Galway Plate yesterday.
Timiyan, yet another for McManus, has been punished 15lb for a handicap double this summer, and a Spring double by Ornua has seen his rating soar to a similar extent.
I’m rejecting Western Boy (not another McManus!) because he’s linked by collateral form to Timiyan.
The one they all have to beat is Airlie Beach, who landed seven in a row, before second in the Mares Champion Hurdle at Punchestown.
Swamp Fox is up a stone for back-to-back hurdles successes this summer but his second on the Flat to Whiskey Sour on Monday suggests that he will be in the fighting line again today.
For my bull’s-eye bets, I shall take Swamp Fox (18.0) and Airlie Beach (17.0) but greatly fear Max Dynamite (saver).
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Goodwood
BET (to win 30) 3.5pts win (nap) HOLD SWAY
BET (to win 30) 1.5pts win and place EMENEM
2.25 Goodwood
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 6.5pts win DUBKA
BULL’S-EYE BET 4pts win and place WILD IRISH ROSE
STAKES SAVER (to win 15) 5pts win ENDLESS TIME
3.00 Goodwood
BET (to win 20) 2.3pts win and place BARRAQUERO
3.35 Goodwood
BET (to win 30) 4.5pts win SOBETSU
STAKES SAVER 3pts win WINTER
4.35 Galway
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 3pts win and place SWAMP FOX
BULL’S EYE BET 3pts win and place AIRLIE BEACH
DAQ MULTIPLES
6 x 3pt win doubles ENDLESS TIME, DUBKA and WILD IRISH ROSE (2.25 Goodwood) with SOBETSU and WINTER (3.35 Goodwood)
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