8-1 LION IN DAY OF SEVEN WINS: Daqman roared through three of the first four races at Cheltenham yesterday with SEVEN winning bets, including a second ante-post killing of the week with Blaklion (WON 8-1 from 12.5 on BETDAQ) following a 6.0 coup with the 4-6 banker Vroum Vroum Mag on the opening day.
FOUR MORE AGAINST PRICEWISE: Pricewise ducked the opener, which is just as well, as Daqman had the winner but still slammed him 4-1 on the day, not counting one of the place bets (give the poor chap a chance!), and the overall Cheltenham score after two days is now 7-1 (season’s total 37-13).
SO LET’S HAVE MORE OF THIS! Daqman laid another beaten favourite, More Of That, but came unstuck against Diamond King, taking his score to 12 lays up out of 15 (and 47 from the last 53). His seven winning bets yesterday were:
WON 8-1 Blaklion (from 12.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 Sprinter Sacre win and place (from 6.6 on BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 Yorkhill
WON special place bet on Blaklion at 3.0
WON lay on favourite More Of That (3rd 6-4)
WON place Blazer (4th 8-1 from 15.5 on BETDAQ)
CHELTENHAM TRENDING: TWISTON ACES
Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice. Shocking ending to a perfect day yesterday when the gamble, New To This Town, my nap, didn’t run his race in the bumper, scrubbed along behind the others much of the way. Couldn’t have been the trip over because they backed him close to the race.
I didn’t see the after-race stuff from Miss Plunkett. I think she, and everyone else, had gone home by the time New To This Town came in..! Punchestown?
Trainers Though not the top trainer this week (guess who that is?), Nigel Twiston-Davies has made a breakthrough of immense proportions after a fairly lean time in the last couple of seasons.
Who wouldn’t look forward to next term if he had the RSA winner and the Champion Bumper bragging rights, both races which usually set up future champions. And he’s got Bristol de Mai today.
Otherwise the scene is the return to form of Gordon Elliott and Jonjo O’Neill, and that awful question has been answered: which of the Mullins favourites won’t win: Min and Un De Sceaux (well it always needed hindsight).
Jockeys Of course, Ruby isn’t retiring (ibid). Great to see Davy Russell ride a winner. But the laurels for the meeting so far must crown Nico De Boinville (and Sprinter Sacre).
Worst take-out The bookies went 132% overround Total SP in the Fred Winter. But there’s still time for them to beat the meanest of the mean 137% in the last race on Tuesday. Check today’s Betdaq overrounds against the race titles below.
ON GARDE! HE CAN JUMP TO IT FOR JOHNSON
1.30 Cheltenham (JLT Novices’ Chase) 100%
FAVOURITE Quick! Open a book on who’ll be the jolly. There’s 1.6 points between four on BETDAQ – Bristol de Mai, Garde La Victoire and Outlander, Black Hercules – as I write but in yet another 100% book.
POSITIVES Horses aged six and seven only have won this in its short life and three of the last four winners had won at Cheltenham, all of which picks out Garde La Victoire.
This is a hat-trick winner over 2m but the plot has been to keep him to the minimum to improve his jumping under Richard Johnson. He won over 2m 4f as a hurdler and the step up in trip today over fences should bring out the best in him, with the going to suit.
NEGATIVES Like More Of That yesterday, the soft-heavy winner Outlander, at the age of eight, is taking on four younger horses with two wins apiece in their last two races, still standing.
Black Hercules success has almost all been in the mud, and he’s dropping back in trip because thought too headstrong for the NH Chase. Not ideal today then, but the Irish have won this four times out of five.
The Blaklion team have another big chance here with Bristol De Mai but he’s only five years old and a front-runner; well held by Garde La Victoire over shorter.
BETDAQ VERDICT We’re already on the young improver, Bristol De Mai, at 9.3 ante-post on BETDAQ to win 50 points but, with the ground dried up for him, Garde La Victoire will take all the beating (5.4 offers).
JONJO BOOKS BOX OFFICE FOR A BOLD SHOW
2.10 Cheltenham (Pertemps Final) 105%
POSITIVES Just six survive from my preview when I looked through the ratings and distance winners (7 from 10): If In Doubt, Arpege D’Alene, Missed Approach, and Saddlers Encore, plus the Punchestown qualifier second and third, Oscar Sam and Mall Dini.
That suggests fine placing yet again by the handicap maestro, Philip Hobbs: he had If In Doubt strongly fancied for the 2014 final but the horse didn’t run his race (the same yard winning it with Fingal Bay).
Stablemate Saddlers Encore, fifth to If In Doubt in the Wincanton qualifier, then won a Grade 3 at Sandown, and the better ground is expected to suit.
Arpege d’Alene is back to form after a wind op but needs soft ground. The Presenting seven-year-old Cup Final, who has his ground today, is lightly raced but not through any serious injury.
NEGATIVES But Cup Final is 10lb worse off with Taglietelle for a difference of 4.5 lengths in their qualifier, and the Gordon Elliott string sprang into life yesterday. The second that day, Warriors Tale, is also badly in with Taglietelle now.
Diamond King, whom I much underrated yesterday, puts All Hell let Loose well in here, and he has his ground but it still takes a leap of faith.
Missed Approach won the Newbury qualifier but is up two grades here, raised 20lb, and the Greatrex team, though bullish about this one, have not come up to standard at Cheltenham this week.
Our Kaempfer, third to Thistlecrack at the Aintree Festival last year, is a good stayer but hasn’t been seen since November and his stable is also out of form. Mark him for Aintree again.
FAVOURITE Leave At Dawn has got his ground but his Cheltenham win has not worked out.. smoke signal from the stable in fitting first-time hood.
HIDDEN HORSE Lightly-raced Box Office has been on the premises a couple of times in the mud but his best run in England was a late finish over 2m 4f at Aintree last October. Could have been aimed at this by Jonjo O’Neill; if not, he’s yet another for the Liverpool list.
VERDICT I’m looking for the 1-2-3 from the good-ground horses, of which the pick are if In Doubt, Saddlers Encore, Taglietelle and Box Office.
BETDAQ Two yards firing yesterday were Gordon Elliott Taglietelle (17.5 this morning) and Jonjo O’Neill (Box Office 30.0). It’s hard to leave out Philip Hobbs and Nicky Henderson from any race like this, so watch the market. Of their four, I’d choose Broxbourne (33.0) on stable form.
‘IF’ ABOUT VAUTOUR SO STICK WITH RICHES
2.50 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) 103%
FAVOURITE We had the Ryanair sorted Mr Ricci; then you switched Vautour and the 13.5 we had about Gigginstown’s Road To Riches (in to 5.7 at one stage after) seemed less of a killing ante-post. Will it be more Ricci riches?
Well, it must be the case that Vautour is so lacklustre at home that Gold Cup pretensions are shelved. You can only read the book and then read between the lines, and the hidden message is in Willie Mullins’ Racing Post column this morning.
He reminds us that Vautour has won twice at Cheltenham but then drops the huge hint that ‘IF he’s in ANYTHING like that sort of form then his chance is obvious.’ That could hardly be described as confidence, albeit these trainer and jockey tips are often round the houses.
POSITIVES Five of the last six winners were rated 166-169, very tight parameters broken last year by a 161 but that’s unlikely now with Vautour on 176 and Road To Riches 165.
Vautour and Al Ferof ran second and third to Cue Card in the King George, which has left Al Ferof trailing him now on 165.
NEGATIVES Annacotty has improved 10lb since November, completing a Cheltenham hat-trick, but he’s beaten only handicappers.
Smashing has made similar gains but seems to need a bog. Village Vic races from the front.
VERDICT I’ll stand by Road To Riches; at least our 13.5 looks good alongside the 9.0 offers this morning. And I’ll put in an offer of even money Vautour (currently 1.97) to four points as my saver.
I certainly don’t want to lose to you, Mr Ricci, as you acquire more riches. I don’t mind you doing so, but please consider the punter. Be transparent. Be soon.
BANKER NAP IS NOT JUST FOR THE CRAIC!
3.30 Cheltenham (World Hurdle) 101%
FORM? NO ALTERNATIVE I did this with Vroum Vroum Mag. I cut to the chase and turned my wallet inside out. This is not just for the craic!
BETDAQ VERDICT Thistlecrack remains bits of odds against (2.32 as I write) despite another big switch, but one made earlier and in good time for punters to ignore the favourite here, Annie Power, and win their money from her subsequent Champion Hurdle performance.
Thistlecrack has won, with ever increasing strides, the stepping-stones to this, the Long Walk and Cleeve hurdles, to complete a winter hat-trick. Both are top guides producing, respectively, seven winners this century and 10 winners since 1993.
We have a ready-made forecast since, in a moment of madness, I overrated Martello Tower and backed him to win 100 at 16-1 with Labdrokes (now needs place cover).. Should have waited for today’s 28-1. But you never know.. (last vestige of every racing-man’s hopes).
FRANKIE 21.0 IN STABLE’S FAVOURITE RACE
4.10 Cheltenham (Stable Plate Handicap Chase) 103%
POSITIVES The last seven winners have carried less than 10st 12lb and, with one exception, have been huge SPs in the decade: 12-1 (twice), 14-1, 18-1, 25-1, 33-1 (twice) and 50-1.
Venetia Williams, with three starters, and David Pipe, with two (La Vaticane has gone), are chasing more glory after winning it three times each since 2007.
The last four winners were all rated between 136-140, which directs your attention to the bottom six in the handicap.
Venetia’s Niceonefrankie, a Grade-3 CD winner, was brought back to form on the last day with this as his target.
Three times a Cheltenham winner, Johns Spirit has at last got his ground after struggling all winter in the mud. Kings Lad can now show his ability after a wind op.
NEGATIVES Kings Palace has won four at Cheltenham, which is possibly why he’s in the top four in the betting. But I’m laying him for a place at 4.3.
He’s been beaten favourite twice, 28 lengths off the winner and pulled up, back there hoping to rekindle his interest to no avail in November and again in February, and trainer Pipe says: Needs to bounce back but it’s a big ‘if.’
Stiletto is another cheap lay at 3.5. Very inexperienced (Bears Affair likewise) for this cavalry charge and needs soft ground.
BETDAQ VERDICT With all those big priced winners, lays at the front of the market seem the order of the day, but I’d be surprised if the favourite, Johns Spirit, is not on the premises (7.8 on BETDAQ) this morning). Niceonefrankie is big at 21.0 and Kings Lad massive at 66.0.
ALL IN A GOOD CAUSE: TO WIN 100 POINTS
5.30 Cheltenham (Kim Muir Chase) 101%
FORM? NO ALTERNATIVE I’ve closed my eyes again! Sorry… We backed Cause Of Causes, last year’s NH Chase winner for us at 44.0, at 11.0 ante-post to win 100 in this Kim Muir. He owes us nothing. Stick. No extra card, thanks.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham
BET (to win 30): 6.8pts win GARDE LA VICTOIRE, and already BULL’S-EYE BET ante-post (win 50) BRISTOL DE MAI at 9.3
2.10 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 3pts win TAGLIETELLE, 1.5pts win and place on each BOX OFFICE and BROXBOURNE (2.10 Cheltenham)
2.50 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BET ante-post (win 50) ROAD TO RICHES at 13.5, plus 4pts win saver VAUTOUR
3.30 Cheltenham
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) THISTLECRACK, plus TON-UP BET already ante-post (win 100) MARTELLO TOWER at 16-1 (and add a 2pts place today to cover the win stake)
4.10 Cheltenham
BET (to win 30): 4.4pts win JOHNS SPIRIT, 1.5pts win and place NICEONEFRANKIE, and 0,5pts win and place KINGS LAD
LAY to lose 10pts for a place STILLETTO and KINGS PALACE
5.30 Cheltenham
TON-UP BET already ante-post (to win 100): CAUSE OF CAUSES at 11.0
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 3pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Garde La Victoire and Bristol de Mai (both 1.30 Cheltenham) with Thistlecrack (3.30 Cheltenham) and Cause Of Causes (5.30 Cheltenham)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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