7-2 WINNER RIBBONS BUT NO GOODWOOD BUNTING: Daqman finally got off the mark at Goodwood with the gambled-on Ribbons (WON 7-2) yesterday but had no real cause to celebrate after a sequence of seconds.
HANNON COULD STRIKE AGAIN: Daqman tries to get back on track today as the ground dries in forecast sunshine with a high of 25 degrees before the weather breaks again. A topical tip for Thunder Strike? The Hannon stable has had five glorious winners so far.
PUNTER-FRIENDLY BETDAQ RACES: Daqman made his selections this morning with BETDAQ offers in the first four races totting up to 103, 104, 103 and 103 (again!) total percentages, against SP Totals of 131, 125, 123 and 122 in some of last year’s returns.
Follow the BETDAQ market and the low draw. Single-figure stalls have had four winners a day at Goodwood so far (1, 7, 1, 9 and 2, 4, 7, 1) and yesterday’s SPs were a turnaround from the shocks of Day 1 with all seven winners 5-4 to 7-1.
2.15 Goodwood Punters usually get the opener about right (all winners in the decade from 11-4 to 9-1). One reason, perhaps: six of the last seven had won or been in the frame in the previous three weeks.
But another essential: five of the six were drawn 5, 6, 4, 7, 3. A bit of an edge to low numbers, don’t you think, though today’s field is a little smaller than the usual 15-18 runners.
Certainly Tha’ir seems to have a doubly-difficult chance: giving weight all round and from stall 12 at that. Yet, though up 6lb, he carries the same weight as when he gave a thrashing to Sennockian Star, the only horse to beat him in four July races.
Mark Johnston’s horses tend to run above their level here. But Broughton and Mushaakis both have to. Broughton got a soft lead at Chester and won in a slow time. Red Avenger was having none of it at Haydock and thrashed him. Should confirm the form at the revised weights.
Similarly, Mushaakis has no chance with Code Of Honour on Sandown form, and the easier surface seems to be against him.
Cruck Realta and King George River have both been running in the pattern, dropping several rungs down the ladder here.
VERDICT: Either one, or both, of Tha’ir and Red Avenger (they trade at 8.4 on BETDAQ, as I write) can be expected to close down on clear morning favourite Code Of Honour, and there could be a move for one of the Johnston runners.
2.45 Goodwood (Richmond Stakes) Richard Hannon won this four times in a row (including Dick Turpin): 2008-11. All had raced twice, three of them unbeaten.
Thunder Strike’s hat-trick suggested he was another Dick Turpin but he was only fourth in the Coventry – weighed down by my money – and was a floperoo at Newbury (odds on) afterwards.
With dozens of front-line two-year-olds to choose from for this, one of his favourite races, Hannon runs just this one colt.
Since Thunder Strike has to bounce back – needs to turn around eight lengths with Miracle Of Medinah – we need a price, and we’ve got one: 10.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Another big offer was Ben Hall (10.0), who was 7th in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot, running on as if needing this extra furlong.
The Norfolk 2nd, 3rd and 8th (behind Ben Hall) were only just run out of it in a cracking Molecomb, won by Brown Sugar on Tuesday.
Brown Sugar was beaten by Jallota at Newmarket in June before that one was a head behind Figure Of Speech in the July Stakes. They look all of a heap, with Figure Of Speech marginally favoured, not the 8.6 bar one that I saw in the orange this morning.
VERDICT: Ben Hall was a big offer this morning, and Thunder Strike could be backed to redeem himself after running flat at Newbury, probably because the ground was so firm. Speculative but, with so little between them all on form, better bets at the prices than the favourite.
3.15 Goodwood Cup Four of the last five winners ran in the Ascot Gold Cup, three of them placed. Colour Vision (4th), Altano (5th), Saddlers Rock (8th), Number Theory (9th) and Repeater (10th) all failed behind Estimate at Ascot this year.
Saddlers Rock won this 12 months ago from Askar Tau and Colour Vision, who has shed his Gold Cup (2012) penalty, so is best in at the weights of this trio today.
Caucus missed the Gold Cup but was the moral in the Sagaro Stakes in May when, giving 6lb, he was a length and threequarters behind Estimate at Ascot, and he’s since won the (Listed) Sandown Marathon.
Mount Athos has to be thereabouts but this unlucky Melbourne Cup fifth has otherwise been kept to shorter trips since a hat-trick at 13-14 furlongs last summer.
Altano is from the Novellist yard of Andreas Wohler, who claims that the slow pace was against his German St Leger winner at Royal Ascot, yet the time for the race was fast overall. I think he means the jockey got too far off the pace.
VERDICT: Caucus comes to this fresher than most, seems back to his best after set backs and, if the Sagaro form with Estimate can be believed, was a fair deal at 7.6 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
3.45 Goodwood (Lillie Langtry Stakes) Five-year-olds can’t usually hack this, and the two Cecil winners in the last four years were both a year younger.
But Wild Coco is well clear on official ratings, won this race last year and was similarly out on her own in the most punter friendly of all the BETDAQ markets this morning.
However, last year’s runner-up Jehannedarc has hardly advertised the form in Listed runs this season.
Mark Johnston’s Alta Lilea has run well, giving weight away the last twice, including second to the massive improver Maputo.
Elik, third in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, has officially shown 19lb improvement since the spring and today’s step up in trip could see more.
VERDICT: Elik, winner of the Height Of Fashion Classic trial here at Goodwood in May, stayed on well in the Ribblesdale. These two classy performances suggest that her 13lb concession from Wild Coco should see her home in this at a tasty 4.2 this morning.
4.20 Goodwood You’d expect some shocks here, and winners at 25-1 and 33-1 in the decade would suggest that is the way it’s going to be.
In fact, punters have been right, or nearly so, most of the time with eight winners out of the 10 between 2-1 and 13-2 at SP.
For the past five years running, the winner has come from those that have raced, and in four of those years from a low draw (3, 6, 6, 7).
Those stats give the bias to Amazing Maria (5.1 on BETDAQ as I write), Ejadah (11.0) and Jersey Brown (26.0) but Sir Michael Stoute’s unraced Dubawi filly Radiator was strong in the morning market.
VERDICT: Ejadah, hooded in only her second race, with no holes to pick in the debut run, suggests that Roger Varian means business with her today and so 11.0 was tempting.
Dangers were the grey Amazing Maria and the Stoute filly, while Tender Emotion (a Pivotal) and Remember (by Selkirk) could be on the premises if the ground hasn’t dried up.
Withdrawals, leaving the percentages tallying to 128, meant that I couldn’t see a settled market at the time of writing. So my verdict had to be ‘pass.’
4.50 Goodwood This is one the punters usually allow to get away from them: not a single winning favourite, and winners are ‘any price’. Andrew Balding, who’s saddled two, puts the fashionable hood on Melvin The Grate for the first time.
But six times in eight years the winner has come from a single-figure stall, and in three of those years the first three have all been drawn low.
Significantly, five of the six lightweights in the field today are from stalls 1 to 7, so seem to have a double advantage.
The interesting one, drawn 4 and in only the fourth race of his career, is the local horse Czech It Out, trained just down the road by Amanda Perrett. Regal Dan came into his own late season last year.
Muharrib (in 5), Pythagorean (8) and Homage all look progressive., and Majestic Moon (7) is on a roll. Very much a race to watch for moves in the BETDAQ market.
VERDICT: Two interesting jockey bookings: Joe Fanning is on Czech it Out (10.0 on BETDAQ as I write), lightly raced and locally trained, and Regal Dan (17.0) returns to his best trip with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
DAQMAN’S BETS
With good, drying ground forecast, stakes are raised and his selections are backed to win 30 points each. Gold Value means he opposed the favourite in punter-friendly BETDAQ lists.
GOLD VALUE BET 4pts win on each THA’IR and RED AVENGER (2.15 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BET 3.3pts win BEN HALL and 3pts win THUNDER STRIKE (2.45 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BET 4.5pts win CAUCUS (3.15 Goodwood)
GOLD VALUE BET 10pts win (nap) ELIK (3.45 Goodwood)
BET 3.3pts win CZECH IT OUT and 1.8pts win and place REGAL DAN (4.50 Goodwood)
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