THE RACE THAT THROWS UP GIANTS OF THE JUMPS: A frustrating day yesterday with returns of 22214 but plenty of meat on the bone today as we try to avoid a roasting in the Thyestes Chase. Daqman clashes with Pricewise, analysing form and stats, horse by horse, for a race in the great tradition of ‘the Jumps’, celebrated for pointers to Gold Cup and Grand National. He takes up offers on BETDAQ of 7.0 and 12.5, and naps in the supporting Galmoy Hurdle.
DAQMAN ACCOUNTS UPDATE
📈 Daqman 27, Pricewise 13 (+344.40 to -31.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 40% (+225.90 from 10-25) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps: no bets yet 2020 (47% 2019: +249 from 8-17)
📈 All Daily Naps 43% (+06.50 from 30-70) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 50% (+15.69 from 10-20) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 100% (+11.42 from 1-1) 20pt stakes at SP
IT’S THE OBVIOUS BULL’S-EYE BET
Clickety-click! It’s 66 years since the first running of the Thyestes Chase, and good to see it still going in its original form, beating all the so-called innovations in racing and betting from bumpers to bingo, and standing solid for the great tradition of ‘the Jumps’.
Punters of different generations have come to this race to provide them with tough and durable winners from the age of Arkle (1964) and Flyingbolt (1966) to Hedgehunter (2004) and Nunbersixvalverde (2005), right down all the days to Djakadam (2015).
Gold Cups and Grand Nationals were won and lost in the race that stops a county – Kilkenny county – at one of the Best Racecourse venues in the Stud And Stable Awards of 2019.
With four winners in eight seasons, that man Wilie Mullins is Out On His Own (2012) as usual, as if success in his stead were by Invitation Only (2019).
3.00 Gowran Park (Thyestes Chase, 3m 1f) Winners from 11st 6lb to 11st 10lb and below 10st 7lb, top and tail, form the results of this race. Quality or a sneaky one at the weights. The middle rank is entirely left out.
Wllie Mullins has the monopoly on quality, training five of the eight set 10st 12lb to 11st 7lb this year.
Acapella Bourgeois Versatile as to trip over fences, winning from 2m 4f to 3m and third in last April’s Irish Grand National (3m 5f), leading four out. Back to form in the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore, jumping well and making a race of it for Gold-Cup-winning stablemate Al Boum Photo.
Roaring Bull Irish Grand National sixth came good in the big Christmas chase at Leopardstown. Winning novice with Nicky Henderson, Chef Des Obeaux was fifth for Willie Mullins (made mistakes); Monbeg Notorious, Class Conti, Livelovelaugh in rear; Minella Fair and General Principle pulled up; Pont Aven unseated rider.
Of those, Livelovelaugh ran well for a long way in the Liverpool Grand National, and Chef Des Obeaux won over 3m 2f at Chepstow a year or so back.
Dounikos has lost his form since winning the Punchestown Grand National Trial last February.
Total Recall has not lived up to his Ladbrokes Trophy triumph of two years ago, reverting to hurdles for sole success since.
Borice Beaten 33 lengths in this race last year before three in a row (two hurdles) culminating in Galway Plate victory. Disappointing return in Ladbrokes Trophy after wind op, when raised 11lb.
Ex Patriot Gowran winner last March and consistent in three Graded chases since his return in November. Likes going clockwise but up in trip today.
Moyhenna Punchestown Festival winner; moderate since but better than bare form.
Noble Endeavour bagged the big Christmas Leopardstown chase, and afterwards placed at Cheltenham Festival and sixth in Irish Grand National. Poor form since.
Choungaya has won only his maiden (over hurdles); always a bad sign.
Smoking Gun four out of five over hurdles 2018-19, and ran into form over fences last month, beating fellow beginner, the favourite Early Doors. Best form right-handed, including success on today’s course.
Lord Schnitzel out-and-out stayer but unlikely to have the finish of some of these.
VERDICT: This looks like an old firm match, with Willie Mullins (Acapella Bourgeois best at BETDAQ 7.0) and Gordon Elliott (Roaring Bull the pick for an obvious bull’s-eye bet at 12.5) fielding 12 of the 18 runners.
I tipped Roaring Bull for the race in a preview last week, and can find no reason to change my mind. He’s the young improver and he’s getting 10lb from Acapella.
Chef Des Obeaux was let down by his jumping at Leopardstown, despite a preference for left-handed tracks, and Moyhenna has won chases only against her own sex.
Smoking Gun should stay well but is inexperienced at six years old. Livelovelaugh is aimed at the Grand National again and may lack the finish for this.
ORDER IN: 1️⃣ Roaring Bull, 2️⃣ Acapella Bourgeois, 3️⃣ Smoking Gun, 4️⃣ Chef Des Obeaux, 5️⃣ Livelovelaugh, 6️⃣ Moyhenna.
BENIE CAN BAG US A SUPERNAP
1.50 Gowran Park (Galmoy Hurdle) It’s a three-horse race on the ratings. Benie Des Dieux (157), Apple’s Jade (157) and Penhill (155) follow on Presenting Percy’s back-to-back wins, both off 157. The first of Percy’s was a stepping-stone to RSA success.
The Mares Hurdle is the Cheltenham target for Benie Des Deux (favourite at 2.37) and Apple’s Jade (8.0), split in the betting by Honeysuckle.
Both Apple’s Jade and Honeysuckle had Penhill well behind in December but the one-time Albert Bartlett winner has good form going right-handed at Punchestown and Galway.
Benie Des Deux, who won the 2018 Mares Hurdle and fell at the last when in control last year, is unbeaten at Punchestown. Her fall was her only defeat in eight races and she goes well fresh.
Cheekpieces helped Apple’s Jade return to form last time. Twice beaten by Benie Des Dieux in mares’ races in 2018 and well behind Honeysuckle in the Hattons Grace.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Gowran Park (supernap)
BET 20pts win BENIE DES DIEUX
3.00 Gowran Park (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 8.25pts win ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS
BET 4.25pts win ROARING BULL
3.20 Wetherby (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win THE PADDY PIE
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