EIGHT NAPS UP OUT OF 10: DAQMAN’S MADE TIPPING AN ART FORM: So many winners, they have been getting in the way of words! So today Daqman presents one of his regular betting articles (‘Don’t Be Fooled By Two In A Race’) and keeps his list of winners for another day. All you have to do is update them from Wednesday’s column with two more successes yesterday, which included his fourth nap in a row and the eighth winning nap from the last 10:
WEDNESDAY: Profit 15.00
WON 9-4 KENSINGTON ART (nap)
WON 4-1 FILAMENT OF GOLD
27 HITS FROM 11 WINNING DAYS OUT OF 12 FOR 261 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman has now taken his profit to 261 points from 27 strikes in 12 days (just one losing day) his winners including 16-1 (twice), 10-1, 9-1, 7-1, 13-2 and 4-1 (twice). Supernaps are now 20-30, a 66% strike rate for 98 points profit from 20-point stakes.
DON’T BE FOOLED BY TWO IN A RACE
What to do if you’re seeing double. You’ve analysed the card and made your pick but your horse has a stablemate in the same race; the trainer runs two.
I’m not talking about big fields with teams running for Richard Fahey, Willie Mullins or Aidan O’Brien. You’ll see those names with up to half a dozen in the same race, and you have to pick their best on form and jockey bookings, as if they constitute a mini-race of their own. Or ignore the whole thing.
No, I’m talking about two stablemates in a lowish-level race; no trainer in particular; no two-year-old races unless nurseries. I contend that the outsider of the two is the one to back early mouse.
I have a 21% strike-rate in such races, which is colossal if you’re dealing with offers between 6.0 and 13.5, as in the examples below.
Get a position at a price. Then wait for the market to develop; be on line regularly, and you could well see the outsider become the favourite or nearly so. If not, back the original short-priced one to cover your stake on the outsider.
You certainly can’t afford to pick one horse in such a race, using the same old method of form and jockey bookings because, sooner or later – in fact, more often than not lately – you’re sure to get rocked by the outsider with virtually no form at all, and that will hurt.
You’d prefer to have been on it, whether as your main chance, or merely as a stakes saver to your main chance. Here’s three I picked up on in just five days:
WON 7-1 VIVID DIAMOND Chester (Saturday, August 31). Winner trained Mark Johnston, who also saddled Persian Moon (2nd 5-1); both stepping up in trip. Only 6 ran.
Persian Moon was well tipped up, second favourite to Outbox (11-8 SP). Vivid Diamond was easy to back but there was money for her late on.
Persian Moon led and set up the race for Vivid Diamond, who squeezed through a gap two furlongs out.
The race was experimental for both Johnston runners, and there was no reason why Vivid Diamond should have been as big as 10-1 early on.
She had been knocking at the door over 1m 4f. This was her first attempt stepped up to 1m 6f.
WON 2-1 LETS GO LUCKY Lingfield (Wednesday, August 28). The outsider of two for David Evans in another small field (7 ran), with stablemate, Mr Kodi, favourite.
Lets Go Lucky was one of those going into a handicap first time after the requisite three runs, down the field each time. Mr Kodi had already had his try at ‘three and hit’ and flopped.
Lets Go Lucky’s early 5-1 was soon rubbed out as he joined, then, passed, Mr Kodi in the betting to become new favourite at the ‘off’.
Despite visors for the first time, Mr Kodi was one paced, and is still a maiden after five starts.
WON evens ISLE OF WOLVES Epsom (Tuesday, August 27). I backed Jim Boyle’s outsider, Duke Of North, at 13.5, with a saver in the column on Isle Of Wolves, stipulating even money (I can’t advise you during the day; so I have to declare my plays in the published column).
Not much happening in the market and the race went with the betting, Isle of Wolves winning at evens and Duke Of North second at 10-1, after leading two out.
Conclusion: No surprise really how often two stablemates fight out the finish (twice in the three races above), one trying to set the race up for the other.
SHOPPING EARLY FOR ‘BAZAAR’ BETS
2.50 Haydock Frankie’s here! He could easily win the opener on Arabist and well worth watching – if not betting in – is the sprint (3.50), in which he partners Gordon Lord Byron in a bid to beat horses up to EIGHT years younger
But my man in the long grass says it’s day one in the education of Grand Bazaar, son of Golden Horn and asked to beat not a lot here. A star is born? I took an opening 2.38. My bet wins and I cover three other bets on the day!
THERE WAS GOLD IN AN IRISH FIELD
3.10 Salisbury (Bob McCreery Memorial) I used to go to Bob’s bloodstock base at Stowell to see the rhododendrons. Shades (the same magenta everywhere, in fact) of being allowed to set foot in Henry Cecil’s rose garden.
Tales at Stowell of Old Vic and High Top, and of course Jeanette McCreery is still going strong with Anna Nerium maintaining the great tradition. The three-times Group-winning mare was bred by McCreery before he died.
But I caught my breath when Bob told me how he spotted Kilmore (1962 Grand National) in a field in Ireland, and bought him for Ryan Price. Imagine picking a winner like that!
All good, though I couldn’t get out of my head a reminder of the teasing menace to me, a boy on holiday in Boyle, of my old Irish uncle, who used to say: ‘He’s coming to get you, the Bishop of Kilmoooor…’ with the word stretched out to wrap around both my ears. O dreadful day, if ever he did (I envisioned a Bishop Brennan type wielding a stick, so recognised him years later on the telly).
Richard Hannon, who trains Anna Nerium, has top and bottom in this memorial race but I don’t include maiden fillies’ in my piece (above) about two in a race.
Andrew Balding is also doubly represented, and my fancy is Quickstep Lady (19.0), half-sister to Dancing Star who was a favourite of mine. Maybe not today but one to follow at big prices until she wins.
3.40 Salisbury Anna Nerium won this in 2017, second of three top-class fillies’ races here today. A two-year-old sprint (6f), it usually goes to a low stall (8-10 winners drawn 1-to-6).
Richard Hannon runs two but it’s a big field and no percentage in assuming he can dictate with one and win with another.
I like Millisle from the one stall. So does her trainer, Jessica Harrington. Millisle, 5.5 in the BETDAQ market this morning, has won twice at the minimum despite being green and this 6f should suit and give her a bit more time.
A CHARM OFFENSIVE AT LONGCHAMP
5.05 Longchamp Simon Crisford’s Imperial Charm should get her reward at last, dropped to a Listed after four races at Group level, two of them Group 1.
She’s been unlucky with wide draws the last twice – here at Longchamp and at Chantilly – and the drop back to a mile will also suit; she was headed only in the last 150 yards in the Saint-Alary (1m 2f).
First-time blinkers could help Savaanah (Roger Charlton) but they need to. She’s been very disappointing, failing to improve from handicap level, her rating similar to that of a year ago.
Vivianite (Archie Watson) has won only her maiden in 17 starts; always a bad sign. She really doesn’t want to come out and play.
But Madeleine Must is a big danger on her narrow defeat by Suphala here at Longchamp in June (Aviatress fifth)
Afterwards, Suphala had Imperial Charm in third in the Prix Chloe (Group 3) at Chantilly (Matematica well beaten fourth), but that was one of the bad-draw days for Imperial Charm and Madeline Must’s stable is missing strike with just 1-17 in the last fortnight, including three consecutive losing favourites.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.50 Haydock (win 15)
BET 12pts win (nap) GRAND BAZAAR
3.10 Salisbury (win 20)
BET 1pt win and place QUICKSTEP LADY
3.40 Salisbury (win 20)
BET 4.4pts win MILLISLE
5.05 Longchamp (win 10)
BET 10pts win IMPERIAL CHARM
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