HENNESSY ABC: Daqman presents his ABC Guide to the declared runners for Saturday’s Hennessy Gold Cup, with a key to stats and facts that are usually relevant to the race.
BIG OFFERS: Daqman goes for some outsiders today, big offers on BETDAQ at 27.0, 16.5 and 15.0. But his nap is Veryverygood!
SAPHIR LOOKS POISED TO STRIKE GOLD
3.10 Newbury, Saturday (Hennessy Gold Cup ABC guide) Here’s how the Hennessy declared look using this ABC key to the stats and facts about them, with the X factor for stables in top gear:
A: Aged 6 or 7 (10 of the last 14)
B: Winner of a Grade-3 chase or better (10 out of 14)
C: Winner over 3m or more (12 out of 14)
D: Had run at Newbury before (10 out of 14)
E: Second-season chaser (11 out of 17)
X Factor: Stable in peak form
ABCDEX Blaklion
RSA winner at Cheltenham who has had a run back. But only third in the Mildmay at Aintree to Native River and Henri Parry Morgan (Un Temps Pour Tout fourth). Seems to prefer the hill-climb tracks.
ABCDEX Native River
Eight in a row in the first three, including second in the NH Chase (4m) at Cheltenham and when gave 7lb and beat Un Temps Pour Tout at this meeting last year. But worse off now with some of those behind him in the Mildmay
ABCDEX Vyta Du Roc
Has been beaten consecutively by Blaklion, Vicente and Un Temps Our Tout. Has a weights pull with them all here but must improve on a poor run back.
ABCDE Un Temps Pour Tout
Ultima Chase winner at Cheltenham after being beaten successively by Vicente and Native River, who beat him again in the Mildmay at Aintree. Won on his return but in a lower-level race.
ABCDX Saphir Du Rheu
Now 10lb lower in the handicap than when trying, off 11st 12lb, to give lumps of weight to the first two, Smad Place and Theatre Guide, in this race last year. Has kept Grade-1 company since (including against Thistlecrack and Cue Card) and looks poised to strike, down in class and fit from r ecent third in Ascot Gold Cup Handicap.
ABCX Vicente
Stablemate of Saphir Du Rheu, beat Un Temps Pour Tout in a novice chase at Cheltenham a year ago but well behind Blaklion there afterwards. Improvement came when stepped up to 4m: fifth in NH Chase at Cheltenham and won the Scottish Grand National.
ACDE Coologue
A nearly horse as a novice but stepped up for second in the Great Yorkshire and scored on his seasonal debut five weeks back. Needs the ground to dry out.
ACE Aubusson
Grade-1 hurdler who started well over fences (Uttoxeter 3m heavy) a year or so ago but pulled up in the Dipper at Cheltenham and returned to hurdles without success in a season at Auteuil.
BCDX Hadrians Approach
Winner of the Sandown Gold Cup (April 2014). Best run since when sixth in the same race this year.
BCDX Theatre Guide
Runner-up in this race last year but 10lb higher now after impressive win at Kempton in February. Fell in the Ultima but good run before being outstayed in the Sandown Gold Cup (3m 5f) in the Spring. Pleased connections on his return at Wetherby.
BCDX Triolo D’Alene
Won this race in 2013 and now back to within 3lb of his mark that day after a modest career in Graded company since. Seemed his old self when given a lower-class confidence booster at Kempton in January but out of his depth in Grand National and Ascot Chase after.
BCD Double Ross
Fourth in PP Gold Cup at Cheltenham last November but not much to show since and 10 years old now.
BCD Houblon Des Obeaux
Well-beaten ninth in this race last year, and only 3lb better at the weights. Ran away with small-field chase on today’s course since but has performed in a big field (won United House Gold Cup, Ascot, November 2013; 16 ran)
BCD Smad Place
Last year’s scorer has 11lb more but had been impressive winner by 12 lengths in the mud, and slammed Many Clouds by similar distance at Cheltenham (heavy) in January. Poor form on good ground since.
BC Holywell
Four wins in a row as a novice in 2014 but out of his depth in top-Grade races won by Coneygree, Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card (twice). Restored credibility when runner up to Un Temps Pour Tout – 7lb better with that one now – but (hit first, fell second) could not handle the Grand National fences.
CDE Henri Parry Morgan
Rear runner who stormed through for 10 and 15 lengths novice-chase wins in fair-sized fields at Chepstow and Uttoxeter (soft) before splitting Native River and Blaklion at level weights in the Mildmay.
CDE Local Show
Won first time over fences here at Newbury and followed up at Kempton at the turn of the year. Failed to stay in 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham.
C Carole’s Destrier
Won 3m 5f London National at Kempton Park last December but pulled up in the Ultima at Cheltenham and left well behind in the Sandown Gold Cup in April.
– Regal Encore
Second in a Grade B at Punchestown so could be improving but a risky profile.
DE Upswing
Second in the Murphy Chase at Cheltenham a year or so back but not in the same form since, despite Press tips and short prices in the market.
PACE YOURSELF FOR THE CELEBRATION
1.05 Towcester Just when you thought there was a country track remote from the Irish invaders, ‘Shark’ Hanlon takes to the waters and sends three to Towcester this afternoon.
The word is that improving Adarenna has a big chance in this opener, and I took 5.3 on BETDAQ this morning.
I certainly wouldn’t want to be on his sprint-bred I See You Well (3.45) in the bumper, though the same sire has won of the favourites, Mick Maestro!
Only Gorgeous (16.5 offers) is up from Devon, with the stable also sending out Docor Look Here in the next.
1.35 Towcester We’ve got a class 3 here.. wow! What can I say but Verygoodverygood! He’s on a hat-trick here, with his November double costing him only 8lb.
Vive Le Roi is an obvious danger, but I think there’s a ‘hidden horse;’ here: before bad ground at Sandown and an adventurous journey to the Punchestown festival, Doctor Look Here ran two excellent races in the West country.
Runner-up at Exeter, he stepped up markedly on that to take a class 3 at Taunton, readily kicking clear. The 27.0 on BETDAQ this morning does not reflect his ability.
1.45 Taunton This looks a strong novice chase, with Cottersrock, Relentless Dreamer and Moss On The Hill having already won open handicaps, and four horses are separated by a single point at the head of the BETDAQ orange as I write.
Ptit Zig’s half-brother Earthmoves, who hasn’t had much racing because of injury, could be anything at this stage: a glass horse or one who now goes on from his decent run back.
The handicapper only just failed to halt a hat-trick by Relentless Dreamer, and he hasn’t been too harsh on Moss On The Hill. That one along with Minellacelebration are the ones to have won at around today’s trip.
Fort Worth is getting a reputation as a bridesmaid and, like Earthmoves, Luccombe Down is making his steeplechase debut.
The runner-up to Minellacelebration at Aintree last month has scored since and the third horse came to that race after winning. ‘Minella’ was ridden aggressively on the last day and a more sensible ride would make this morning’s 5.6 look good.
2.20 Taunton Johnny Farrelly has been training winners this autumn and he’s hopeful that Western Sunrise can continue to progress. Good ground is vital to this Westerner mare, so he’s probably got her ready: the BETDAQ 15.0 allows for the risk.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 4pts win ADARENNA, and 1pt win and place ONLY GORGEOUS (1.05 Towcester)
BET 6pts win (nap) VERYVERYGOOD, and 1pt win and place DOCTOR LOOK HERE (1.35 Towcester)
BET 4pts win MINELLACELEBRATION (1.45 Taunton)
BET 1.5pts win and place WESTERN SUNRISE (2.20 Taunton)
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