BIG-RACE ABC GUIDE: Here’s Daqman’s ABC guide to the Cesarewitch runners. In his tipping copy he welcomes back Hereford with a banker. Look out TOMORROW for the first day of the Newmarket meeting.
ST MICHEL WILL RUN IN CESAREWITCH: Sir Mark Prescott’s St Michel has made the cut for the Cesarewitch by just one horse! That’s the news of Saturday’s big race. The big-name defections were Jennies Jewel and Pyromaniac.
MARTIN HAS THE BIG-RACE TOP TWO
4.10 Newmarket, Saturday (Cesarewitch): You will need to insert the ‘X’ factor yourself, as the draw was published after the deadline for my copy.
A Winner at 1m 6f or more (21 out of 22)
B Carries no more than 9st 1lb (17 out of 22)
C Older than four (17 out of 22)
D Raced in September (9 out of 12)
E From National Hunt or mixed yard (13 out of 19)
X-factor: 14 of last 18 in first two were drawn 1-13
ABCDE Golden Spear
Despite the defection of his Pyromaniac, Tony Martin emerges with the top two in this test of stats and facts. He regularly places them well but is not always in the best of form, as now.
Golden Spear, a Grade-C handicap hurdles winner, took the Guinness Handicap at the Galway Festival (1m 4f) and has won on firm and soft/heavy.
ABCDE Moonmeister
Only sixth behind Golden Spear at Galway. Much more likely winner in staying hurdles but you never know with this man Martin, if he’s saved one up.
ABCDE Renneti
Has scored only in a small-field, heavy-ground hurdle since his previous success three years ago at a time when he was also second in the Royal Bond. Best effort since, third in The Ladbroke handicap hurdle at Ascot last December. A pound higher than when fourth in this last year
ABCE Starchitect
The 2015 Fred Winter fourth at Cheltenham has had a good year, runner-up in the Grade-3 Newbury Hurdle, fifth in the County Hurdle then third in a Grade 3 at Aintree before back-to-back wins, one Jumps one Flat, in May.
Starchitect goes very well fresh and the David Pipe stable, which has been in good form, has laid him out for this.
ABCD Havana Beat
Has missed the beat since taking a small-field, Listed two-miler in July 2014 but fair effort, seventh, behind Nakeeta, The Cashel Man and Sweet Selection at York, and back in the frame on the last day.
ABCE Grumeti
All out to take this Cesarewitch prize off 84 a year ago, and only a pound more to carry, with his trainer, Alan King, continuing to plunder Flat prizes. But Grumeti has not shown much form since.
ABD Life Less Ordinary
Steady progress this year on a sound surface but had to be cajoled along to win the Gordon Carter (2m) at Ascot on top of the ground. Claiming find of the season Josephine Gordon takes off a handy 3lb.
ABD St Michel
Four wins out of six, all at odds on, as he rose through the ranks this summer from a class-4 handicap winner at Beverley in July to (two lengths off the winner) third in the Group-2 Doncaster Cup). Has climbed 42lb in the ratings since June.
ABD Star Rider
The grey filly Star Rider failed to bridge the gap between winning the Goodwood Stakes (class-2 handicap) and the Group-2 Park Hill Stakes (beaten 27 lengths) but is on a useful mark back in a handicap for a canny trainer.
ABD Sweet Selection
Four wins in five races saw this filly climb 22lb from class-5 AW winner to a class-2 handicap at Newbury in the summer though, on the last day, made no show in the Doncaster Cup.
ABD The Cashel Man
has been a nearly horse this year, his rating static, his best run second in the Cesarewitch Trial over CD last month. But that was in first-time blinkers. Can they work again off his highest rating so far?
ABD Wind Place And Sho
Another rising, but only slowly, in the ratings, his best form when winning the Pontefract Cup, but that’s only class 4. However, he can be forgiven his failure to last out the 2m 5f of the Goodwood Stakes.
ACDE First Mohican
Alan King is a master trainer under both rules but has found this First Mohican a difficult horse to fathom, winner only once in his last 27 starts from 10 to 21 furlongs. His rating has been fairly static now since March, 2015.
ACDE Modem
A nearly horse who has failed to score in 14 starts for Jessica Harrington since winning over hurdles at Punchestown a year ago. A stone higher on the Flat in that time but it’s hard to count his achievements.
ACD Oriental Fox
Often thereabouts in the marathon tests, including a gallant second last year to Grumeti in this, beaten a short-head, giving 22lb. Sixth in the Ebor and fourth in the Queen Alexandra, the race which produced his last success 12 runs ago in June, 2015
ACD Fun Mac
A once-a-year winner, and his already scored this year, beating four others last month at Salisbury. That’s because he’s tried all the big staying events – Ascot Gold Cup, French Gold Cup – with his best effort runner-up in the Ascot Stakes last June.
ACD Shrewd
Spent his time at York this year – four races on the Knavesmire – building up to a crack at the Ebor. This is Plan B after that shrewd tactic brought him only runners-up spot at York. Third in the Cesarewitch trial last month suggest that he’s not out of it.
AC Nakeeta
Runner-up in both Brown Jack Stakes and Chester Cup puts him near the front of the starting grid but thus far the petrol’s run out at the business end beyond the 1m 6f of his back-to-back wins a year or so ago.
ACE Ennistown
Decent on the Flat season in 2012-13 but has mainly concentrated on hurdles since then – his last Flat run was down the field in the 2014 November Handicap – though David Pipe clearly means business booking Ryan Moore for this one and Jamie Spencer for Starchitect.
AD Magic Circle
Still unexposed with only 12 runs in three seasons, including a hat-trick last backend. Now 7lb higher for winning stayers’ stakes at York in July (2m).
AD Mill Springs
Has never won for Frankie Dettori, and has scored in only four or five runner races. Handicapper assesses only 4lb improvement in a year but stayed on strongly, third in the Ascot Stakes (soft).
AD My Reward
Form very static; runs off the same rating as he did in March last year. Scored at Haydock over 2m but weakened out of it in Northumberland Plate.
A Sea Of Heaven
Went eight races out of nine in the first two, including defeat of Nakeeta in the Brown Jack Stakes, showing courage over the 2m but not bred to go any further.
BCD Leah Freya
All success around 1m 4f, mainly at Epsom, and well adrift of Sweet Selection at Newbury (2m 2f)
BCD Montaly
The buzz horse of the race but trainer warns that the horse will not run on firm ground. Fifth in the Ascot Stakes, and third to Sweet Selection and Sea of Heaven over the Ces trip at Newbury, better off with both now.
BC The Minch
Though five, seen on the track only four times; placed in a bumper at Aintree and eighth in Queen Alexandra marathon at Ascot.
BDE Graasten
Ex-German with very little recent form. Watch for him over hurdles later on.
CDE Blue Rambler
Four in a row as a three-year-old in the French provinces but placed four out of five recently without winning, mainly over hurdles, though not a bad effort on the Flat, second (class 2) at Haydock.
CE Mistiroc
Back-to-back wins over 1m 4f in the summer; fourth in last year’s November Handicap , ninth in the Cambridgeshire, unlikely to defy his current high mark.
C Seismoss
Went for the 2014 Melbourne Cup (ninth) on the back of Group-3 Geoffrey Freer win in August that year. Not much to show for five runs since (beaten five lengths, seventh in the Northumberland Plate)
RATHER BE WATCHING THE JUMPERS?
2.00 Hereford We’ll christen the new Hereford Jumps track with a banker. Rather Be is reckoned a Cheltenham horse, a phrase you’ll be hearing monotonously between now and the end of January.
3.50 Ayr Escalating (BETDAQ 18.5) returns to the class and conditions of his Nottingham success in June. Naggers (7.6) was climbing the grades, including a win on the soft here, but bit off more than he could chew in a quality handicap in Ireland.
Dandyleekie will love the ground, but Kenny The Captain has never been able to hack it above class 5 and Tiger Tim’s yard is out of form.
Duke Cosimo was fourth in the Ayr Gold Cup but his wins have all come on a sound surface.
Explain is a CD winner but that was back in 2014. Pomme De Terre scored in first-time blinkers last year; then the effect wore off and he’s been trying cheekpieces recently.
4.25 Ayr Ballymore Castle would give Richard Fahey a hat-trick in this race: should close down Moujnt Tahan on their run here last month, but he hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in 2014, always a bad sign.
Run To The Hills (3.8 BETDAQ favourite this morning) is up in weight and grade but should improve on only his fifth start. Conditions will suit this Newmarket raider.
The handicapper seems to have hold of Muntadab but Newstead Abbey (17.0 best offers) has dropped back into contention (7lb lower now than for Chester success on the soft last year). Lexington Times has dropped a stone in the last year.
7.25 Chelmsford All bar 9.4 offer Rockspirit are winners only at a mile or less, so Andrea Atzeni should be able to exploit hisn stamina.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, except the banker)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) RATHER BE (2.00 Hereford)
BET 3pts win NAGGERS, and 1pt win and place ESCALATING (3.50 Ayr)
BET 7pts win RUN TO THE HILLS, and 1pt win and place NEWSTEAD ABBEY (4.25 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place ROCKSPIRIT (7.25 Chelmsford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4pts win double RATHER BE (2.00 Hereford) with RUN TO THE HILLS (4.25 Ayr) plus 1pt win treble the same two with ROCKSPIRIT (7.25 Chelmsford)
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