9-4 NAP AND 15-2 WINNER AS DAQMAN LEARNS FROM DAY-ONE MUD: The Punchestown mud had Daqman dropping his stakes on the second day yesterday, moving his nap to Ludlow and his best outsider to Doncaster. Both won! Profit on the day 14.40. Today’s nap runs at Huntingdon.
WON 15-2 BURTON’S WELL (Doncaster)
WON 9-4 BEAN IN TROUBLE (Ludlow nap)
FAVOURITE LAURINA IS KNOCKED OFF HER PERCH IN THE QUEVEGA: Punchestown was run in desperately slow time yesterday; up to more than a minute slow in the last race! There were strong performances in the Quevega, knocking the favourite, Laurina, off her perch. Read all about it in Heads Up below.
BLACK TEARS COULD BE A TOP STAYER
⚠️ HEADS UP After the Quevega Mares Hurdle at Punchestown yesterday, Laurina was virtually ruled out of Cheltenham by trainer Willie Mullins.
She was a well-beaten third behind stablemate Elfile, who still looked powerful at the end of 2m 4f, despite the heavy ground. Running on well into second was Black Tears, who must be a top staying mare in the making over 3m.
⚠️ HEADS UP After Wednesday’s acceptors for the novice events at the Cheltenham Festival, two unbeaten horses targeting the Supreme Novices Hurdle were much bigger on the BETDAQ exchange than with bookmakers
11-11 Chantry House 13.0 in the BETDAQ orange; as low as 6-1 and 7-1 bookies
1-111 Sporting John 17.0 in the BETDAQ orange; as low as 8-1 and 10-1 bookies
Both are shorter in the Ballymore but will they be frightened off now that race is declared Envoi Allen’s definite target?
Says Gordon Elliott: ‘Envoi Allen goes for the Ballymore. He would only switch to the Supreme if there was heavy in the going description.
⚠️ HEADS UP Nicky Henderson plans to run five in the Champion Hurdle (‘they’re all entitled to be there’): at BETDAQ exchange offers last night, they are Call Me Lord (31.0), Epatante (4.1), Fusil Raffles (23.0), Pentland Hills (6.9) and Verdana Blue (38.0).
⚠️ HEADS UP With Jack Kennedy out with a broken leg, and Davy Russell tied up with Presenting Percy, Mark Walsh will ride Delta Work for Gordon Elliott in the Gold Cup. He’s 6.3 on BETDAQ
⚠️ HEADS UP Is it just a Dream? With Bangkok and Dubai Warrior both short for Saturday’s Winter Derby at Lingfield at 8-11 and 15-8, punters have latched on to Century Dream as the each-way bet of the race.
Not without good reason has he come in from 16-1 and 14-1 with bookmakers to 10-1 and 8-1 in the run-up to the Group-3 race.
Simon Crisford’s entire goes well after a holiday (including third to Roaring Lion in the British Champions Mile) and his record in Group 3 and below since breaking his maiden is 41101130.
* The article, Follow Your Own Winning Rules, scheduled for Tuesday, was held over when the Punchestown Grand National Trial was rescheduled.
NO ESCAPING FUGITIVE
1.41 Huntingdon (Am still getting used to these new fangled race times!).
Shall We Go Now is the warm favourite for the opener but could be vulnerable here under his penalty and there is also the risk of the ‘bounce factor’ – his recent Taunton win came after a 617 day break which also suggests he could be a fragile horse.
The bounce factor, which is often acknowledged by trainers, is when so much goes into a big effort after a long break but then there is nothing left to build on next time out when a flat or negative run can follow.
It might not be the case of course but at around evens on BETDAQ I would prefer to take him on.
Northern Poet is no world beater but showed enough in three bumpers to suggest he has a future over hurdles. His bumper form has worked out well and we can have a small win bet to win 10 and I’ll also play in the place market for the same return.
Rock On Rocco might be another alternative to the favourite but he has drifted alarmingly and the tongue tie which seemed to help at Doncaster last time out has now been left off. Go figure.
2.11 Huntingdon Fugitives Drift looks the nap on the card for Henderson and De Boinville.
A big improvement looks likely after his Leicester third. De Boinville reported he ran green that day so he should improve for the run but also the drop back in trip. He has a touch of class as he proved at Newbury when third in a decent bumper on debut.
The paucity of opposition though is probably the biggest positive for him. Main market rival Mickey Buckman was a 100/1 runner-up here on his second start but is just struggling to make things click and comes here on the back of a fall at Lingfield last time out.
3.50 Southwell Single digit field sizes for all six races at Southwell today and this class 3 heat is by far the best of them.
My usual angle of giving a high weighting to course form doesn’t really kick in here as four of the five runners are course and distance winners!
The big quandary though is that the other one, Nigel Nott, is probably the most progressive having won two of his three starts and coming from the in form stable of David Simcock (5 winners from last 15)..
As usual though I revert to the strategy of seeing whether they can handle the surface first before guessing.
The surfaces at Lingfield, where he won last time and Southwell are further part than chalk and cheese and a safer play may well be the bang in form Sandridge Lad who bids for a rapid course and distance four-timer.
Darragh Keenan takes over from Ben Curtis and claims 3lb which is set against the four-year-old’s 5lb penalty for his win here last Friday. Despite that coming by only half a length, it was cosy enough.
Zylan won this race last year but was well beaten here into third last month and harshly has been nudged up 2lb for that effort.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 1pt win and 6.25pts place NORTHERN POET (1.41 Huntingdon)
BET 5.9pts win (nap) FUGITIVES DRIFT (2.11 Huntingdon)
BET 4.5pts win SANDRIDGE LAD (3.50 Southwell)
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