THREE OUT OF FOUR ON WEDNESDAY: DAQMAN got it right in three of his four analysed BETDAQ sponsored races at Kempton last night including a well backed NAP – ABLE DASH WON 8/11 – and a correct win/place lay strategy in the 8.00.
GO FLAT OUT WITH BETDAQ: The English Flat season starts at Doncaster on Saturday. The smart punter bets on a race not on a horse, because – with BETDAQ – you can follow a value market right through the day and through the race and take positions that bring you out on top.
ABC LINCOLN GUIDE TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for Daqman’s special facts-and-stats ABC Guide to the Lincoln Handicap from the man who’s tipped 40 feature-race winners since November.
ANOTHER GOLDEN RULE FOR THE FLAT: KEEP YOUR DAQ UP AND FOLLOW THE MARKET!
Early position: The BETDAQ market settles down to around 106% early doors – or early mouse, as I call it – and, since the action has hardly begun, you can take an early position on something at good offers.
This is particularly true on Saturdays and big-race days with a healthy market, yet one that will be strongly influenced later on by TV hype, ‘telephone tipsters’ and the morning papers.
Early positions ante-post (days, even weeks ahead of a race) are difficult these days when stables with very large strings are dominant– Mullins for Cheltenham, Hannon and O’Brien for the Classics, for example – and have quality in depth to choose from. What will they run?
Example: I suggested Annie Power for the Mares’ Hurdle. It was her rightful race at her age but the same stable had Quevega defending her title. Only if Quevega was over the hill would Annie Power run. She wasn’t. She didn’t.
With hindsight, Annie may have done better in the Champion Hurdle. I couldn’t back her for the World Hurdle, as her stamina wasn’t guaranteed, had not been tested in a race.
It’s that phrase ‘in a race’ that is vital to your successful punting. ‘Morning glories’ (they do everything right at home) and horses with ‘potential’ are all very well IF you get a price.
By the way, don’t be afraid of trainers and jockeys, if their views contradict you or insist you take a certain direction. By all means check out their quotes to iron out any errors on your part (‘wrong ground for him today’) and reduce your stake.
But, remember, it’s your opinion, and your long-term return from investment, that should be uppermost in your mind. The trainer’s real opinions and his own long-term aims are not for your ears. It’s up to you to read between the lines.
As for jockeys, current and ‘ex’, give them a wide berth. I’ve only known one who invariably tipped winners (Gary Stevens). In fact, he gave English readers a hatful one year for the Breeders’ Cup. Typical of the Press, the newspaper concerned never hired him again!
The market swing: So you’ve got your early position, right. You are into a market that totaled only around 106%. It’s midday now and something from the front of the betting has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft.
He was taking out 40%. Now he’s at odds which translate to only 10%. So add it all up, you guys: spend more and win for sure!
It’s simple maths. The market was value. You got on something at value. Now one at the front of the market has released others in the race at value.
Yes, but wait a minute you say: what about this steamer that’s come from out of the pack to be new favourite, or nearly so?
Well, if that was the horse you took an early position about, then good for you. If it wasn’t, you now have a decision to make: do you want to be on the steamer or not?
My view is that it depends on the race. If it’s a handicap, I would take the view that he’s opened the market up for me and, as a bet in himself, is only a covering stakes saver (because his value odds have gone).
If it’s a big-field maiden, well maybe ‘money talks.’ But remember my warning that it might be the same ‘tipsters’ hype’ or a morning glory, working the house down at home but still to do it on the track.
I would be less inclined this time to say that the steamer had opened the market for me, though don’t forget you can back Place Only on BETDAQ.
If you see a horse at odds on, early mouse or when the pre-race play begins, he will push out the offers on many of the other horses. A place-only bet on one of them could reap more than a win bet on the hot favourite.
Remember, the Placer has three chances (in races of eight or more runners), whereas the hot Win horse has only one.
Final point of trade: It’s race time and, oh boy, things have dramatically changed. The favourite is playing up in the stalls. Lay, man, lay. Don’t hestitate: you don’t have time.
But, heh, what’s this: your horse is still 8.0? You know the one you were on this morning! Such are the liabilities at the front of the market, that the unruly ‘thinker’ has drifted only from 4-6 to 4-5. You are not only happy to lay, you are happy to increase your stake on your original bet because his price is suddenly much better value.
On the other hand, it may be that your early-mouse position is the one that’s changed. You got 10.0 but he’s the steamer! Crash: he’s in to 3.2. He’s the buzz. And he’s the business, twice over.
You can now trade out on your morning bet with a lay, either to cover your stake or give you a win-win situation. If he wins, you win; if he loses, you win. It’s the race not the horse that matters.
Remember that one at Chepstow last week? “The 7-4 morning favourite Churchtown Love went odds on. That had all the makings of a lay in the circumstances of her being claimed off, as though connections were worried they couldn’t give the 5lb penalty away to 15 others who were in receipt of 7lb. A layer had those 15 running for him.
My choice at 4.0, Makadamia was far too easy to back at 6.0, even in the face of the strong support for Churchtown Love to 11-8 on. All this seemed to flag ‘turn-up expected’.
Churchtown Love threw her jockey at the start and they were called back to the tapes, with Churchtown Love easing only slightly when she had become a definite lay, yet still around 4-5.
Meanwhile, Makadamia came in only half a point, as if to say ‘the favourite may be rubbish but you’ll get nowhere backing me either!’
But Ginger Fizz had been backed just before the tapes went up and the late money was now well visible at the time of the recall. Nothing else fancied; so take some Fizz and fast!
The starter lets them go again and a reluctant Churchtown Love barges her neighbour as the tapes go up. Lay her to win, lay her a place, and lay her once again until the cows come home (she’s one of them).”
TODAY’S BETDAQ RACING AT KEMPTON: STAR CAN LAND THE NAP
Kempton proved a happy hunting ground for me last night, even though my first two winners were backed off the boards.
The NAP – ABLE DASH – was 2.4 on BETDAQ at the time of publishing but sent off the 8/11 favourite. He won well as did PUZZLE TIME WON 11/8 in the 6.30.
In the 8.00 I tried a BETDAQ ‘special’ trading technique on a horse I was convinced would either win or run badly.
Punters expected SPIN ARTIST to win as he was sent off the 11/4 favourite but he trailed in last of the seven runners so stakes were saved with a cheap place lay.
This is what I said yesterday:
The Mark Johnston trained Spin Artist looks a classic win, with place lay insurance proposition. He’s a horse that either runs very well or very badly and that gives us an angle in on BETDAQ.
There are another four BETDAQ races tonight:
6:05 Betdaq – The Sports Betting Exchange Maiden Stakes (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 3f, 6 runners)
The odds tell you how uncompetitive this is likely to be. Liberty Red is trading at 1.21 on BETDAQ but I can’t back or lay him. He’s 1.21 because of the poor standard of opposition. Ed Dunlop’s runner is reappearing after a 171 day break and trying the all-weather for the first time which are the angles you will look to if considering laying. He’s rated 76 – and if you took him out of the race I am still not convinced ANY of the remainder are capable of winning 🙁 Straightforward for the favourite but a race to watch for me.
6:35 Betdaq Free 25 Bet No Lose Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 1m 3f, 5 runners)
We’re down to a field of five after the defection of Final Delivery who looked the likely winner. My focus now switches to Midnight Chorister who ran a solid race over 1m 4f in a Lingfield maiden last time out and although a maiden after six starts looks to have been kindly treated on his handicap debut.
7:35 Betdaq 500 In Free Bets Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) (BOBIS Race) (3yo, Class 4, 1m, 7 runners)
This class 4 handicap looks the race of the night and the seven strong field includes three unbeaten runners who completely dominate the BETDAQ market. Tigers In Red won on debut at Southwell but tries Polytrack for the first time tonight. Tree Of Grace won readily on debut at Lingfield last October and his having his first race since but preference has to be for Passing Star who quickened away nicely to win a course and distance handicap last time out.
8:05 Betdaq No Premium Charge Fillies’ Handicap (4yo+, Class 5, 7f, 7 runners)
I thought the angle here was a place lay on the top weight Ishiamber (around 2.9 on the place market, two places). She was readily brushed aside here last time and the handicapper certainly seems to have been over cautious with her current mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win MIDNIGHT CHORISTER (6.35 Kempton)
BET 8pts win (nap) PASSING STAR (7.35 Kempton)
PLACE LAY for 8pts ISHIAMBER (8.05 Kempton)
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