DAQMAN’S TURF RATINGS ARE CLASSIC: Daqman rated the best of last year’s two-year-olds at the end of the Flat (turf) season in November. How do his figures compare with the official verdict out this week? In their Classic season, they are the Lucky 13 Three-Year-olds.
MORE JUMPS CARDS FALL TO THE FROST: The Flat (AW) continues to keep racing in business, with meetings today at Wolverhampton and Kempton Park; four Jumps cards have been abandoned. An inspection for Market Rasen takes place today for tomorrow. Ascot (for Saturday) also inspects today, while Haydock will take a look at midday tomorrow.
LUCKY 13 THREE-YEAR-OLDS
He’s a good judge. DAQMAN ratings of last year’s two-year-olds ahead of their 2023 Classic season have been validated, with the top colt Little Big Bear officially rated this week on the 124 he gave it; eight others in the top 13 equate with, or are within a pound of, the official version.
Or is he? But has he underrated Royal Scotsman and Noble Style, and overrated Victoria Road and Silver Knott? Only time will tell.
The Flat (turf) season opens at Doncaster on Saturday, April 1 and ends there on Saturday, November 11.
Classic dates: Saturday May 6, the 2,000 Guineas, Newmarket; Sunday May 7, the 1,000 Guineas, Newmarket; Friday, June 2, Epsom Oaks; Saturday, June 3, Epsom Derby; (June 20-24, Royal Ascot); September 14-17 St Leger festival, Doncaster.
The 2023 three-year-old colts
124 LITTLE BIG BEAR (Daqman 124) Aidan O’Brien; by No Nay Never
119 CHALDEAN (Daqman 120) Andrew Balding; by Frankel
118 AUGUSTE RODIN (Daqman 119) Aidan O’Brien; by Deep Impact
118 ROYAL SCOTSMAN (Daqman 114) Paul and Oliver Cole; by Gleneagles
117 NOBLE STYLE (Daqman 114) Charlie Appleby; by Kingman
115 VICTORIA ROAD (Daqman 118) Aidan O’Brien; by Saxon Warrior
115 SILVER KNOTT (Daqman 117) Charlie Appleby; by Lope De Vega
114 SAKHEER (Daqman 115) Roger Varian; by Zoffany
114 AL RIFFA (Daqman 115) Joseph O’Brien; by Wootton Bassett
Top three-year-old fillies
118 TAHIYRA (Daqman 118) Dermot Weld; by Siyouni
115 COMMISSIONING (Daqman 114) Team Gosden; by Kingman
115 MEDITATE (Daqman 115) Aidan O’Brien; by No Nay Never
114 LEZOO (Daqman 114) Ralph Beckett; by Zoustar
Daqman’s 2yo ratings are as published in this column on November 8 last year
WORLD CHAMPION 2022 Flightline 140 (compare with Frankel 140, Dancing Brave 138, Sea The Stars 136, Shergar 136).
HEAVEN SENT 6.7 ON BETDAQ
⭕ 3.05 Wolverhampton I’m usually suspicious of horses with just one win to their name, particularly if it was in their maiden.
So, though owners and trainers no doubt welcome the 2.30 class-6, the conditions of the race – for horses which have not won more than once – felt like looking through the wrong end of my binoculars.
I rapidly moved on to this class-5 handicap, which has four last-time, or second-to-last-run, previous winners.
One of them, Johnny Bloom, is an exception to another rule of mine: horses of class-5 and class-6 levels rarely win back to back. Johnny’s done it twice!
But his total of five strikes have all come in class 6, never as high as today in the handicap, never up into class 5. He tried it here at Wolver the last day and was beaten favourite.
War In Heaven, on the other hand, has won back to back before but last year at this time and in class 4. He was even second in a class-2 handicap at Ascot last May, which meant his handicap mark was bumped up to 83.
War In Heaven did all that as a three-year-old. He is four now and stepped up in trip here at Wolverhampton the last day, crashed in rating and grade: what a price, winner at 28-1 in a class-5 off 72.
With the Michael Appleby stable hitting 11 winners in January so far, War In Heaven looks a good bet from the same stall under the same jockey.
You wait for a No 6 bus half the day (no trains) and then two come along at the same time.
Arcadian Nights has similar credentials to War In Heaven, and has hungry Billy Loughnane (5-9 on this course including yesterday) to do the steering.
But, at the revised weights, Toophan should reverse the form of their one-two at Wolver on Monday.
Luke Morris appears to prefer Toophan to another CD scorer, Mafia Power (off same mark as Arcadian Nights).
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.6 Toophan, 6.7 War In Heaven
DEMBE SET FOR A SEQUENCE
⭕ 6.30 Kempton Michael Appleby, who trains War In Heaven, is also campaigning at Kempton in the two best-quality races I’m looking at.
The stable’s Golden Sands returned to form here in December and is on a winning mark but Satin Snake has to carry a 5lb penalty over a trip that has not suited in the past.
Keyser Soze is 1-27, with just one success in four years. First-time blinkers might help, though you’d think they don’t give encouragement at home or he would have been wearing them sooner.
No Luke Morris on Uzincso, who won 5-6 here in the Spring of 2021. He was in rear behind Aquaplano (third) in the London Mile series here earlier in the month.
Dembe, who landed four in a row last Spring, looks the likely lad, back to form the last twice, placed in this grade.
Betdaq value 3.35 Dembe
SPENNY PICKS 4.6 KIWANO
⭕ 7.30 Kempton This one is Class 2; wow! Just six runners; oh no! But at least it’s attracted some top yards.
Michael Appleby runs Annaf, who was placed in the Pattern at Newcastle in June and scored in class 2 at Lingfield five days back. My question at the start of the day: can he put two races together?
Kiwano is 2-2 at Kempton and could be on the upgrade, scoring 12 days ago after being gelded.
Jamie Spencer who has been riding winners for both Michael Appleby and David Simcock is on the Simcock runner, Kiwano, but it may be that Appleby keeps Rossa Ryan on Annaf as a reward for the Lingfield win.
Tinker Toy, a Listed winner at Wolverhampton, has to cope with a drop in trip.
Aramis Grey, winner and second here in November as part of 2-3, has now been second twice in class 2 but has a lot to find with Annaf on a line through River Pride.
BETDAQ value 4.6 Kiwano
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.05 Wolverhampton (win 12 each)
BET 2.5pts win TOOPHAN
BET 2pts win WAR IN HEAVEN
6.30 Kempton (win 10)
BET 4.25pts win DEMBE
7.30 Kempton (win 12, nap)
BET 3.25pts win KIWANO
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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