HORSES-TO-FOLLOW CLAN NOW 444 POINTS UP: They say horses make fools of men. Yesterday Daqman spent his time and money on outsiders, forgetting that he already had one lined up for the big time. Clan des Obeaux (WON 12-1) was so unlikely for Kempton against Gold Cup and King George winners that he was ignored, but landed yet another winner for his horses to follow (list published Tuesday), putting them 444.26 points in profit.
18.0 ‘DREAM’ FOR THE CORAL WELSH NATIONAL: Today Daqman sticks to his outsider plan for the holidays – an 18.0 Dream for the Coral Welsh Grand National on BETDAQ this morning – but this time doesn’t lose sight of his two horses to follow for the race. Daqman and Pricewise both failed to add to their 10-5 scores yesterday .
DREAM COULD SPRING A SURPRISE
2.50 Chepstow (Coral Welsh Grand National) Elegant Escape and Vintage Clouds were long ago put into my horses-to-follow list with this race in mind. Only two carrying more than 11st have won it in the decade.
Compare those two, Synchronised (off 150 in 2011) and Native River (off 155 in 2016), with Elegant Escape (151) and Vintage Clouds (146) and you find that, quality wise, this is a similar race to the nearest pound.
Twice in the last three season, older horses – aged 11 and 13 – have won, and Folsom Blue has been laid out for the race. Here’s my form and facts assessment:
1: ELEGANT ESCAPE Second in the 3m 2f Ladbrokes Trophy (ex-Hennessy) at Newbury in November, giving weight to the winner and running on as if today’s trip will suit.
2: VINTAGE CLOUDS Graded hurdler who has been in the mix in major staying chases: 2223012423331, still standing, including fourth in this last year and third in the Scottish National.
3: FOLSOM BLUE Won the Punchestown Grand National Trial at this trip before fourth in the Irish National in the Spring (hampered early and again from the last when knocked sideways). Prepped for this over hurdles.
4: BALLYOPTIC Does so well he keeps getting hiked above his winning mark of 150. Fourth in the RSA at Cheltenham, second in the Scottish National. Needs to improve again to score off 155 but was rated in the 160s over hurdles.
5: VIEUX LION ROUGE Went for the Becher Chase over the big fences three weeks ago after a wind op and in first-time cheekpieces. He was second, the moral in terms of weight carried, but was never going to reach the winner. Has been sixth and ninth in the Grand National and is in line for a good run at Liverpool again.
6: RONS DREAM Excellent jumper – form figures of 2212113 spoiled only when brought down in April – takes her first big step up in trip and could be the surprise packet of the race.
7: RAMSES DE TEILLEE Chepstow chase form of 111, including the trial for this race but that was short of 3m and his ability to get today’s trip is in doubt, and not guaranteed in his pedigree. Stable won the Tommy Whittle just before Christmas.
8: VYTA DU ROC Living off his Sandown Gold Cup second of April 2017. Moderate since but handicapper refuses to let go of 10lb higher handicap mark. Well, would you demote a Nicky Henderson?
9: LOOKSNOWTLIKEBRIAN On the upgrade and stepped up to 3m 2f on the last day, his jumping improved by special coaching from Yogi Breisner. Well related for stamina.
10 RAZ DE MAREE Because last year’s race was run in January of this year, the winner, Raz De Maree, is still 13.
Good luck to him and Navan trainer Gavin Cromwell, who had a winner on Boxing Day by the name of Allduckornodinner. He’s from the family of Hardy Eustace, so don’t give him the bird.
Verdict: At the odds I want to be on Ron’s Dream (18.0 on BETDAQ), while aware that I have 20 points each Elegant Escape and Vintage Clouds as horses to follow. Folsom Blue could reach the frame.
KALASHNIKOV TO HIT TARGET
1.15 Leopardstown (PP Chase) Big Zeb, Sizing Europe, Douvan – to name but a few, as they say – have taken this in the decade and this year’s renewal looks top quality.
Simply Ned caused a 16/1 shock in this last year and is back for more whilst hot favourite Footpad has questions to answer after his fall first time out this season at Navan. It wasn’t just the fall, more the fact he never looked like winning it any stage and this is much tougher – there will be certainly no hiding places and his jumping will come under a thorough examination once more.
Ballyoisin looks certain to try and make all again, tactics which have worked admirably for him so far this season but on previous form Great Fields has his measure and the Willie Mullins ‘second string’ could be the one here.
He won the Ryanair at Punchestown in 2017 when he was 11 lengths in front of Ordinary World and Ballyoisin was beaten when falling at the last. Great Field fell on his reappearance but is usually a sound jumper and is another that likes mixing it at the front end in a race which is likely to be frenetic from the start.
1.20 Kempton (Wayward Lad Novices Chase) Paul Nicholls has won this three times in the last five seasons, including with Dodging Bullets who went on to be Champion Chaser.
Kalashnikov is the stable star at Amy Murphy’s yard and has made a great start over fences with double digit length wins at Warwick and Plumpton.
Clearly this is a much sterner test but he is preferred to the Paul Nicholls trained Sandown winner Dynamite Dollars who has to give weight away.
1.50 Leopardstown (Future Champions Novice Hurdle) Winners of this would go on to fame in the Champion Hurdle (2008 Hurricane Fly) and the Gold Cup (Sizing John 2014).
The two mares might fight it out, preference is for the Willie Mullins trained Sancta Simona who doesn’t do more than is needed to win but she’s going the right way and can give Willie Mullins his fourth consecutive win in the race, making the most of her allowance.
3.00 Leopardstown Snugsborough Benny has won second run back after a break three times and looked to have the ideal prep for this in a Fairyhouse hurdle on the first day of the month.
Won the Galway Blazers in August, a tough bustling handicap like this one, and is ready for the step up in trip to continue on the upgrade: 15.0 on BETDAQ
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.15 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 4.8pts win GREAT FIELD
1.20 Kempton
SUPERNAP BET 20pts win KALASHNIKOV
1.50 Leopardstown (win 20)
BET 10pts win SANCTA SIMONA
2.50 Chepstow (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3pts win and place RON’S DREAM
3.00 Leopardstown (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.5pts win and place SNUGSBOROUGH BENNY
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