BALLYROAN BOGEY BELL TOLLS FOR O’BRIEN: Is Ernest Hemingway really the ‘good thing’ at Leopardstown tonight? The stats say not; it’s a bogey Group 3 for Aidan O’Brien, claims Daqman.
DAQMAN PROSPERS IN BETDAQ RACE: Daqman, who scored with Prospera (WON 3-1) in a BETDAQ race yesterday – not enough to prosper on the day – opposes another hotpot, Narmin at Chepstow, worried that she is aimed so low.
BRIGHTON DAY 2: LADY’S DAY: Beaten a neck in the Brighton Mile yesterday, Daqman hopes that luck is a Lady in today’s seaside feature, the Brighton Challenge Cup.
3.40 Haydock Clutching at a class-3 handicap here on a tricky midweek melange of six meetings (two more in Ireland). Clinging to the BETDAQ value in the mile handicap (3.40): 110% list in the orange, as I write.
Take one with known form in the grade – Hay Dude (at 4.8) over CD in the Spring now dropping back from class 2 – and one with potential, Annina (6.8), with that ‘could be anything’ look.
3.50 Brighton Challenge Cup No successful favourite and SPs up to 100-1. That’s how hard it has been to spot this winner in the last decade.
Ethics Girl, who won it in 2012, is back, 5lb higher. The mare beat the 2010 winner last year, ironically proving that repeat wins in the race are not easy to come by, but she’s run so respectably since that her mark after Brighton last year remains the same.
David Simcock (Edwyn Ralph) and Pat Phelan (Green Earth) have around 50% strike rates in this type of race on this course, and Simcock is Brighton’s leading trainer with an overall 36%.
There are two problems with Edwyn Ralph as a betting medium: he’s so far proved best on AW and he’s a lazy so-and-so, which is why Ryan Moore has been asked to ride.
Jim Crowley, who’s won on ‘Ralphy’, switches to Laser Blazer, another one difficult to win with – aren’t they all at this level – but, left alone to do his own thing after a slow start, gradually worked his way through the field over CD last August and won well, albeit in class 6.
Laser Blazer is 3lb better off for a neck with The Holyman in another CD race here in June.
Beacon Lady is an ever-present at Brighton: her form figures there are 12021221. That’s cost her a rise of just short of a stone this year.
But she’s responded by stepping up from class 6 to score in class 4 over CD a fortnight back, albeit in a small field, and Darren Egan (currently striking at 33%) removes 3lb. The mare misses a race on the course tomorrow for this.
5.50 and 6.50 Chepstow Richard Hughes ignores three or four solid rides at Sandown tonight for Chepstow, including two of Richard Hannon’s.
I shall back Mystical Moment (4.3 on BETDAQ as I write). If it loses, I shall be on Bird Of Light (charged to the account at 3.7 offers this morning), with the ‘Birdie’ backed to win 20, as usual, but topped up to save the losing stakes on Mystical Moment.
Mystical Moment ought to be seen off by Narmin, whose clear win in her maiden was franked by an even clearer win for the runner-up, six-lengths Wolver winner next time out.
As a Pivotal, Narmin should like the good-to-soft ground, but doesn’t it make you wonder why Narmin is dossing, down in a class-5 handicap? Was the maiden win her swan-song?
Bird Of Light, off the mark first time in a Bath auction maiden, was out of her depth and unfancied at 25-1 in a big sales race, but today should be a comparatively easy task, if she adapts to the surface.
6.45 Leopardstown (Ballyroan Stakes) He’s 24420424 for the decade: whose form figures are these in this Group-3 race? Answer: it’s himself, the wizard of Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien.
The Ballyroan is one of his bogey races. He’s only ever won it once in its 22 years, appropriately perhaps with Peach Out Of Reach in 1999.
His losers include Irish Derby winner, Treasure Beach, and his runners have finished last twice in the four years since 2009.
So I’m encroaching on Shamrock territory to oppose the favourite here with an improving three-year-old who caught my eye in another Group 3 on this course recently.
That was the day Scintilulla turned over the O’Brien talking horse, Mars, who landed me one of my current sequence of four lays in a row.
Can Ernest Hemingway go the same way? He was mighty impressive in beating Royal Diamond at The Curragh and is earmarked for the Irish St Leger but he’s a colt who doesn’t stand much racing (six runs in his entire career) so this is a test in more ways than one.
Scintilulla gets a stone, weight for age and as the penalties stand, and is headed for greater things in the Group-1 Yorkshire Oaks at the Ebor meeting and maybe even the Fillies’ and Mares’ on Champions Day at Ascot in October. So do not inquire for whom the bell tolls: it tolls for Ernest Hemingway.
7.15 Sandown Pasaka Boy is very highly regarded but has had few chances in the right company. As a two-year-old, he ran in the Chesham and the Washington Singer, and this season he’s run in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot.
He’s also the only horse in tonight’s race to have won above class 4, yet he’s 8.0 outsider of the field on BETDAQ this morning. Must be worth a pound.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
Selections each to win 20 points.
BET 5.2pts win HAY DUDE and 3.4pts win ANNINA (3.40 Haydock)
BET 4.5pts win BEACON LADY (3.50 Brighton)
BET 7pts win (nap) SCINTILULLA (6.45 Leopardstown)
BET 6pts win MYSTICAL MOMENT, if lose 9pts win BIRD OF LIGHT (6.50 Chepstow)
BET 2.8pts win PASAKA BOY (7.15 Sandown)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also
log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
