CHELTENHAM HERE WE COME: Daqman’s preview for all four days at the Cheltenham Festival continues with the Thursday card.
BETDAQ VALUE ON MARKET MOVERS: Daqman got his winner a day yesterday for the sixth day running but marked Haston Clermont (WON 5-4) for Daq Multiples, which were let down when his two others ran stinkers; let’s hope you backed it. He follows the market today but finds that BETDAQ still offers value.
STAYERS MUST KNOW THE COURSE
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: NEXT THURSDAY
LAYS LOGIC: Backing previous course runners is essential in the Stayers Hurdle (3.30).
Hot favourites in that race and in the 4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle are the right price to lay on the fourth day of next week’s Cheltenham Festival; check the markets against the stats percentages.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 14 (Turners Novices’ Chase) Seven of the last nine winners were 6-4 to 4-1 at SP. Age 7 is 7 out of 10
Ratings: 154, 152, 155, 144, 151, 157, 151, 161, 152. Irish stables have won six out of nine: Willie Mullins (3).
You need a previous festival runner over hurdles (13/13) who is a distance winner plus (13/13)) and, for preference, has won a Graded chase or hurdle (11/13).
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Pertemps Hurdle Final) Two favourites have won in 12 years; seven double-figure SPs.
Winner had six or more runs over hurdles (12/14) and previous success 2m 4f or 2m 6f+ (11/14)
Ratings: 138, 139, 146, 139, 145, 152. 134, 141, 142.
LAY: Favourites prices usually too big to lay.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) Four favourites up out of eight. Ages 7 and 8 (9-12). Course form essential: 15 out of 17 had previously won at Cheltenham or been placed in Grade 1 there.
Some 15 out of 17 had won over at least 20 furlongs; 14/17 had at least four chase wins, one or more at Graded level.
Ratings: 161, 176, 171, 166, 169, 170, 162, 174, 163.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Stayers Hurdle) Only two out of 10 to the favourite. Gavin Cromwell is two out of three at 12-1 and 4-1 following Willie Mullins (2) at 10-1 and 12-1. Ages: 7yo 6-9 until 11yo won last year at 33-1.
Some 15 of the last 16 winners all had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 12 of them as winners; 16 out of 17 had won a Graded race. Ratings: 158, 168, 161, 153, 168, 146, 160, 164, 152.
LAYS LOGIC: There’s always a hot favourite for this, with seven from nine beaten since 2016, as follows: 5th 11-4, WON evens, 3rd 5-6, 5th 9-4, WON 11-8, 7th 4-6, 3rd 9-4, 5th 11-4, 3rd 9-4 last year.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Plate) Favourites: three out of four between 2018 and 2021 are a cluster isolated among winners before that from 12-1 to 50-1 and in the last two years at 20-1 and 22-1. Winner had previously scored from 2m 3f to 2m 5f (14/14).
Ages: 6 to 9 eight in a row until 11 and 10 in last two years; weights 11st 4lb or less (13/13).
Ratings: 140, 142, 145, 147, 141, 149, 140, 145, 143.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Mares’ Novices Hurdle) Favourites: 3-8 Ages: four 5-year-olds, four 6. Ratings: 145, 147, 144, 138 notional, 141, 136, 135, 135 with 7-8 placed in Grade 1 or 2. Trainers: W Mullins (5).
LAYS LOGIC: Willie Mullins won with three straight favourites, but the last five market leaders have crashed: Epatante (2019) 9th 15-8, Minella Melody (2020) 18th 11-4; Royal Kahala (2021) 9th 9-2; Dinoblue 11-8 9th (2022) and Luccia (2023) 4th 6-4..
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, (Kim Muir Challenge Cup) One favourite has won in the last 11 years, and 9/11 SPs range from 6-1 to 40-1 (twice).
Ages: 7 and 8 (10-11). Weight: 11st 4lb to 11st 9lb (6/9). Ratings: 137, 142, 137, 138, 143, 141, 142, 134, 131. Ran at the festival before (9/14).
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 4-1 UR (2016); 5-1 UR (2017), 4-1 2nd (2018), 3-1 8th (2019), 5-1 jt favs 7th and 11th (2020), 9-2 jt favs 2nd and PU in 2022; 7-2 fav 2nd last year.
GINGERBRED TAKES THE BISCUIT
⭕ 2.25 Wincanton The further they went the better Windance jumped when winning this last year but that was on good to soft ground.
The third horse home, No Hubs No Hoobs, who was outpaced, came into his own on heavy over this Wincanton CD the last day, also helped by first-time blinkers.
Haut Folin has won on heavy but his penalty for that has produced place-only efforts since without winning. Regal Blue is up in trip from his heavy-ground win the last day and was a morning drifter.
It’s an open handicap so I looked for a form boost, and got it from Pachacuti’s win here a couple of weeks ago.
He was well held at Ffos Las (heavy) on the first day of the month by Gingerbred, who was the gamble of the race. Gingerbred was again the one for the money this morning but 7.6 was available in the Betdaq Betting Exchange.
QUEEN CARRIES CONFIDENCE
⭕ 3.20 Lingfield (Spring Cup)
📈 STATS: Stalls 2 and 3 have together won six of the last eight. Favourites are 4-10.
🎩 CURRENT TRAINER FORM: James Tate 2-4, Jack Jones 2-5, Andrew Balding 2-12.
🔢 RATINGS TODAY: Orne 100, Watch My Tracer 95, Queen of Zafeen 93, Habrdi 91.
Orne is the soft-ground winner of the Horris Hill Stakes as a two-year-old in November but was beaten in the £180k Al Rayyan Mile on turf (good) at Doha last month (Robert Havlin flown over there to ride), when he split class-4 level ex-English.
Team Gosden additionally saddles class-5 scorer Blown Away (Hollie Doyle), who also has the benefit of a recent run.
But I prefer Queen Of Zafeen, a big market mover this morning. Going for a hat-trick today, a solo ride for William Buick splitting his stint at Meydan (three winners in eight days) and his trip to Bahrain tomorrow for the Al Khalifa Cup.
A late developer, Queen Of Zafeen has come to hand this year, a CD winner here the last day, thrashing an odds-on favourite who is entered for the Curragh 1,000 Guineas.
HARLINGTON HANDICAP PLOT
⭕ 5.05 Lingfield I’ll stay with the market movers this morning and see if the Harlington plot comes off.
It’s the old story: three runs to get a low handicap mark; then step him up in trip and go for it!
Trainer Ralph Smith just missed a hat-trick with Palace Boy the other day, and Harlington still gets me three times my investment this morning on BETDAQ (4.2).
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.25 Wincanton (stake to win 20)
BET 3pts win GINGERBRED
3.20 Lingfield (win 20, nap)
BET 9pts win QUEEN OF ZAFEEN
5.05 Lingfield (win 12)
BET 4pts win HARLINGTON
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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