DAQMAN IN FULL CRY WITH NAPS DOUBLE: Daqman landed back-to-back naps with a confident vote (‘Fool if you miss Fakenham filly’) for Fool To Cry (WON 7-4 from 3.35 on BETDAQ), following on Laser Light (WON 9-4) on Tuesday, and taking his profit in three days to 64 points to recommended stakes, including a place on Mithqaal (3rd 14-1).
12 BEST BETS UP FOR 12 POINTS PROFIT: Fool To Cry gives Daqman 12 winning naps in the last 19 days (63% strike rate) for best-bet form figures of 1011011112411103411 and a profit in that time of 12 points to one-point level stakes:
WON 1-2 Rather Be (banker)
WON 8-11 Churchill (gold banker)
WON 4-1 Wishfull Dreaming
WON 7-4 Sadlers Risk
WON 6-5 Cliffs Of Dover
WON 11-8 Almanzor (gold banker)
WON 11-8 Cliffs Of Dover
WON 2-5 Dreamfield (banker)
WON 5-2 Idliketheoption
WON 6-5 El Bandit
WON 9-4 Laser Light
WON 7-4 Fool To Cry
BIG-VALUE BULL’S-EYE BETS TODAY: Daqman reckons he sees big value in offers for the Durham National at 17.0 and 14.0, and for a handicap at Lingfield at 13.5. He, therefore, goes to the oche and serves up some bull’s-eye bets to win 50 points each. His nap is in the 3.10 Lingfield.
A PROFIT BUT NO FORTUNE FOUND..
What about you, Daqman? After publishing results yesterday for horses to follow from the Racing Post stable tour, I feel obliged to sign off my Fortune Cookies for the 2016 Flat (turf) by the same rules of stats analysis.
We’re not comparing like with like; nevertheless, with the season near its close, 66% (8-12) of the Daqman horses to follow won a race with a win strike rate of 30% (14-47) for a level-stakes profit of 5 points.
3014 Awtaad (Kevin Prendergast) won 2-1
220010 Cotai Glory (Charles Hills) won 5-2
1 Dannyday (Sir Michael Stoute) won 7-2
322 Dartmouth (Sir Michael Stoute)
240 Easton Angel (Michael Dods)
030 Exosphere (Sir Michael Stoute)
222212 Found (Aidan O’Brien) won 6-1
211131 Minding (Aidan O’Brien) won 10-11, 10-11, 1-5, 7-4
1113 So Mi Dar (John Gosden) won 3-1, 4-5, 11-8
11400 Profitable (Clive Cox) won 8-1, won 4-1
2420 US Army Ranger (Aidan O’Brien)
10 Usherette (Andre Fabre) won 9-4
PICK SURPRISE 17.0 NATIONAL WINNER
4.10 Sedgefield (Durham National) Royale Knight (pictured, near side) attempts a hat-trick but, after winning the race off 124 and 136, has a mark of 141 today, which pushes him up to 11st 12lb top weight.
In terms of winning races, you wonder why he has such a mark, because the two Durham Nationals are his only success since December, 2013, nearly three years ago.
He was fifth in the Liverpool Grand National (2015) and fourth in the Scottish National in April but neither performance lifted him in the handicap; in fact, he dropped a pound after Ayr.
On the plus side, he had a run back at the start of the month. That should be a benefit over Shotavodka, Five In A Row, Jennys Surprise and Jac The Legend, who all have to overcome an absence of between 180 and 215 days.
But Five In A Row and Jac The Legend both won first time last autumn. Both are trained by in-form Brian Ellison, so it looks as though the Norton yard has revved up a couple for this.
Shotavodka has fared worse in the handicap than Royale Knight. He was hit with a 12lb hike for winning a veterans’ chase in the Spring, though it was his first in two years.
The handicapper probably took into account that the earlier success was off 141 – has 137 today – and that trainer David Pipe was returning from a spell in the doldrums. But this is his first try at a marathon trip.
Dual winner Ready Token is another from a yard in form, another stepping up from 3m. As a Flemensfirth out of a Roselier mare, he should be up to it, though Charlie Longsdon seemed grateful for his last success ‘in not the strongest of races.’
One I’d been looking forward to off a featherweight is Not A Bother Boy, a dual winner at Sedgefield a year or so ago, and the ‘moral’ in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day, beaten six lengths but giving a stone to the winner.
Snag is the form of the yard: Sue Smith hasn’t had a chase winner this season and her seven starters in the last fortnight have not been nearer than 38 lengths at the finish.
A positive may be that Not A Bother Boy, who pulled up first run back, was also well behind on his 2015-16 seasonal debut before putting in a good run in the novice chase at this meeting.
A lot of these would like some rain, including Jennys Surprise. At one stage, Fergal O’Brien had this one in the NH Chase at Cheltenham (4m) and believes she is a stayer. Fergal is in fine form and ‘Jenny’ won first run back in 2014-15.
Verdict: All have negatives of some kind or another – weight, trip, going, fitness – but, though her form tailed off last term, Jennys Surprise could indeed surprise at 17.0 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
On trainerform, she has a better chance today than another stayer in the making Not A Bother Boy (14.0) but, when there are so many doubts, I’d rather be taking big prices than the 4.3 about the favourite, though I stuck my neck out and laid for a place – at 2.6 in the green – Ready Token.
As a front-runner, stepping up in trip after winning ‘not the strongest race’, he looks vulnerable and likely to fade in the last quarter-mile.
THIS IS A GIFT FOR GODOLPHIN’S ROSE
3.10 Lingfield Muffri’Ha bids for an October hat-trick but they’ve come for the Godolphin filly, Mise En Rose, this morning (3.2 best offer on BETDAQ), clear pick of the three-year-olds, who gets the gifts of the age allowance plus Muffri-Ha’s penalties.
3.35 Sedgefield Rain or shine, this 3m 3f takes some getting on a day of stamina tests at Sedgefield, and winners come from the bottom half of the handicap.`
Australasia, Wyfield Rose and Debt To Society are front or van runners stepping up in trip, which gives a shape to the race that should suit Bellaney Knight who, by the way he’s been finishing, could be the stayer among them.
The booking of Richard Johnson appeals; so does the 7.8 best offer in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
3.45 Lingfield Three with Group-race form could contain the winner: Lord Of The Land. Race Day, Sea of Flames.
Faydhan is a glass horse who will have been got up for this but has won only his maiden and his form doesn’t match up to my trio.
Race Day won three in a row here at Lingfield last year, starting with this meeting. He’s been gelded for this year and wears cheekpieces for the first time after a holiday since two 33-1 flops. So there’s a lot of risk attached, more in fact than the 6.0 BETDAQ offers.
Lord Of The Land only had to be pushed out to score first time since leaving France but has to carry top weight against younger horses (three and four year olds have won this race 9 times out of 10 in the decade).
So I’m diving in on Sea Of Flames, four times a Lingfield winner yet a big-value 13.5, a price which makes no sense if he can reproduce his springtime defeat of Race Day.
4.20 Lingfield Front-runner Kiltara has been given the cold shoulder here at 18.0 yet, if she hadn’t been bumped, might have beaten the favourite, Bess of Hardwick, at Doncaster.
It all seems to add up to a trade opportunity on the front-runner Kildara, while at the same time joining the money run on Bess.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except where stated)
BET 9pts win (nap) MISE EN ROSE (3.10 Lingfield)
BET 3pts win and place BELLANY KNIGHT (3.35 Sedgefield)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 4pts win and place SEA OF FLAMES (3.45 Lingfield)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 3.8pts win and place NOT A BOTHER, and 3pts win and place JENNYS SURPRISE, plus PLACE LAY to lose 10pts READY TOKEN (4.10 Sedgefield)
BET 5pts win BESS OF HARDWICK, and 1.2pts win and place KILTARA (4.20 Lingfield)
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