DAQMAN’S 26.0 ST LEGER FLUTTER: Daqman put up a 15.0 Arc de Triomphe bet ante-post in the BETDAQ Sportsbook yesterday. Today he has a flutter on the St Leger at 26.0. What do you think? If you don’t agree, do some form and facts digging for yourself. Don’t expect to get the winner right off, but a big price gives you the chance of some ‘overs’ in the market nearer the day and to second guess the outcome with another bet or two.
DOUBLE THE PRICEWISE WINNERS: Daqman stands 44-22 over Pricewise as they face off at Newcastle tonight. But first some quality racing at Longchamp.
25-1 SHOT TOWERS OVER THEM
BE A St LEGER SLEUTH. How do you reduce the field for the final Classic, reveal Aidan O’Brien’s pick of his 12 probables, catch the early odds?
First of all, remove all contenders with a rating lower than 110. The race at Doncaster on September 16 is usually won by 110 to 120 rated.
Now, to reduce the Ballydoyle team even further, take out the fillies; this is not their race; only Simple Verse (2015) has won for the fillies in the recent past. Just four of O‘Brien’s 12 are left (official rating at left):
116 ADELAIDE RIVER Second in the Irish Derby to Auguste Rodin and in the Grand Prix de Paris to Feed The Flame, who had been fourth in the French Derby.
By Australia, the first foal of an Irish 1,000 Guineas runner-up. Always busy in a race but always stays on well.
112 CONTINUOUS The Great Voltigeur and the Queen’s Vase are key races for the Leger; Continuous was beaten at Royal Ascot, not in the Vase but in the King Edward V11 Stakes.
But he raised his rating to 112 by beating Castle Way (109) almost four lengths in a small-field Great Voltigeur Stakes. I’ll have more to say about that race next Tuesday with my FORTUNE COOKIES pick.
112 COVENT GARDEN Galileo brother to Johannes Vermeer. Beaten only a length over 1m 5f (soft) at Navan. Outpaced two out but rallied, third to Auguste Rodin and Adelaide River in the Irish Derby.
110 TOWER OF LONDON Galileo brother to Irish Derby and St Leger winner Capri and lower-Group winners at 1m 6f and 2m.
Pipped by Castle Way on the July Course at Newmarket, just failing over the 1m 5f of the Bahrain Trophy (not clear run two out, rider dropped whip).
He’d won the Ulster Derby over that trip and third, just behind him in the Bahrain, was Saint George, earlier in the summer runner-up in the Queens Vase.
Daqman’s ante-post verdict: 26 Tower Of London looks huge in BETDAQ Sportsbook; just four points to win 100. Others in the market 4.5 each Continuous and Gregory, 21 Castle Way, 26 Adelaide River, 34 Covent Garden.
THUNDER CRACK IN 2YO CLASH
⭕ 1.58 Longchamp (Prix d’Arenberg, 2yo 5f) William Haggas and Tom Marquand have Beverley class-5 winner Rare Jewel trying to step up markedly.
George Boughey’s grey Graceful Thunder can show Rare Jewel how that’s done: she has already followed up a class-5 at Beverley by beating Gaenari in a Deauville Listed 26 days back.
Karl Burke’s Dawn Charger, who ran well in the Albany at Royal Ascot, and Ado McGuinness’s front-runner Tiger Belle, who won the Marwell sprint at Naas, make a real race of this.
Betdaq Betting Exchange Check out for morning movements on: 3.35 Graceful Thunder, 5.4 Gaenari and Tiger Belle, 6.2 Dawn Charger, 8 Rare Jewel.
PATIENCE HAS A ROYAL REWARD
⭕ 3.08 Longchamp (1m Listed fillies and mares) I’ve been waiting for Royal Charter, since she won a handicap on the July Course, showing her class (by Expert Eye out of an Oasis Dream mare).
She had to do it the hard way, when they had hoped to take things steadily. So, before stepping her up to Listed level today, she has had a long break in which to mature. That’s why you could get 7.4 offers this morning.
ROARING REVENGE FOR DYLAN
⭕ 7.45 Newcastle Dylan Browne McMonagle, who has ridden 80 winners for Joseph O’Brien, can keep up the good work on Roaring Gallagher here.
The three-year-old might have gone close for a handicap at The Curragh just over two weeks back but, with a claimer in the saddle, he got tight for room.
A week earlier another three-year-old, amateur ridden New Dayrell, ran away with a handicap at Sandown. He clearly got the hang of things that day and could have turned a corner.
BETDAQ value: bull’s-eye bet offers 9.4 Roaring Gallagher, 17.5 New Dayrell
STAR GAMBLE AT NEWCASTLE
⭕ 8.15 Newcastle Star Zinc was a ‘hidden horse’ here, impressive on his sole start on Tapeta and now changing stables to trainer Rebecca Menzies, who saddled the second horse that day.
I say ‘was’ hidden because an overnight gamble has seen Star Zinc’s odds shrink to 8-1 from 22-1. Hopefully, you can get somewhere near the 8.8 still being offered on BETDAQ, as I write.
ROHAAN HANDICAP LET-OFF
⭕ 8.45 Newcastle This is a quality (class 2) field of sprinters. The 6.7 BETDAQ offer Alligator Alley has won three times on Tapeta and was pipped only a neck in a big-field £100,000 handicap at the Ebor meeting last week, so another live hope for Dylan Browne McMonagle.
Four times an AW winner, including here at Newcastle, Rohaan has dropped 10lb in the last year, despite a Group-1 third and Group-3 win.
Be Proud is 4-24 in a long career at Newcastle but hasn’t won off 80 for 18 months. Batal Dubai is 2-2 here but all his form is at 6f.
Fine Wine was third in the Gosforth Park Cup here in June. But I just give Saffie Osborne on the edge on 5.5 Rohaan.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.58 Longchamp (win 20, win 12)
BET 4pts win DAWN CHARGER
BET 5pts win GRACEFUL THUNDER
3.08 Longchamp (win 20, nap)
BET 3pts win ROYAL CHARTER
7.45 Newcastle (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 6pts win ROARING GALLAGHER
BET 3pts win and place NEW DAYRELL
8.15 Newcastle (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win STAR ZINC
8.45 Newcastle (win 12)
BET 2.75pts win ROHAAN
BET 2pts win ALLIGATOR ALLEY
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