DAQMAN PUNCHING WITH THE OLD ONE-TWO: With his naps on a profit of 193 points from a hot acey-deucey eight-from-11 sequence (11111211122), Daqman goes to Musselburgh for a supernap this afternoon. Here’s his take on the best-quality races.
JOCKEY MAY HAVE TOO MUCH TO BEAR
1.40 Towcester Who’s My Jockey? Richard Johnson, of course. Who’s my half-brother? None other than multiple hurdles champion, Hurricane Fly.
Unfortunately, the handicapper knew the answer to that last question, and he’d also seen Who’s My Jockey scoot clear on the run-in over a big field at Uttoxeter.
Only today will tell if it was fair to lumber a four-year-old with a 123 rating for his first handicap.
The two years older, Bastien, might have landed the hat-trick last term but for a below-par performance (scoped badly afterwards) and his reappearance run should have brought him on, albeit the winner, Golan Fortune, who takes him on again, didn’t bring much to the table that day.
It was a conditionals’ race and Bastien’s jockey, Keith Dowling (claims 10), now has to face top professional riders. Will his allowance make the difference?
A Gifford runner at Towcester is always of interest, and Brown Bear has already completed his hat-trick at a total cost of 18lb.
It’s a tough one for punters but Nicky Gifford must be delighted that he’s found another race on a sound surface at this time of year, and 8.6 on BETDAQ is the value.
2.00 Musselburgh Harry Whittington pays his first visit to Edinburgh with lone raider Affaire d’Honneur, who goes well fresh and has chasing blood in his pedigree. He is strongly fancied.
Whittington is 4-9 in 11 days, on a hat-trick today, placing his horses with great skill around Hexham, Southwell, Sedgefield and Hereford, three of them as lone rangers.
2.20 Taunton Ambre Des Marais has climbed 21lb for a low-level hat-trick but still gets into this class-4 with a racing weight, and collateral form has the mare well in front of Serveontime, on a line through Goal.
Again, we have only have winning form (slow time) in a conditionals’ race for Cabernet d’Alene, so I’m inclined towards ‘the Marais’ at 3.25 BETDAQ favourite.
JOHNSON’S BREEDING ADVENTURE
3.10 Towcester The 150-1 Nigel Twiston-Davies for the trainers’ title hit the headlines but a superb autumn start has happened before and failed to rock the status quo.
I remember the Press hyping Philip Hobbs for the self-same situation a couple of years back (‘so-called experts’, according to an irate Alan King this week).
Shades of 500-1 Leicester for the Premier League title when, this time, the so-called experts said: ‘It can’t last!’.
It’s up to the punter, race by race, headline by headline, to judge: Is this offer too big; is it value? It’s what BETDAQ betting is all about.
Here’s Hobbs v Twiston-Davies in a little local confrontation, Kayf Adventure v. Ballyarthur, who seems to lack pace and so might need some rain.
Who’s the jockey on Kayf Adventure? Same answer to the question ‘who’s the breeder’? In each case, Richard Johnson. It’s a fabulous feeling to ride a winner you’ve bred yourself.
Snag with Kayf Adventure here may also be the ground. Hobbs says the gelding goes through the mud better than any horse he’s ever seen (don’t forget to put that in your notebook).
As for breeding, try this one for size: Wandrin Star is half-brother to a 2m 6f chaser but the dam is half-sister to a Nunthorpe (5f) winner!
Maybe he can show his speed here for Kim Bailey, currently 2-3 and another having a great start to the campaign. The Irish Point winner was well backed on his Rules debut, so the 15.5 this morning could go.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the supernap which is a fixed stake)
BET 2.5pts win and place BROWN BEAR (1.40 Towcester)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR (2.00 Musselburgh)
BET 8.75pts win AMBRE DES MARAIS (2.20 Taunton)
BET 9pts win KAYF ADVENTURE, and 1.3pts win and place WANDRIN STAR (3.10 Towcester)
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