BANKER WIN IS DOUBLE TRIUMPH: Devilment (banker nap, WON 4-9) and Lil Rockerfeller (2nd 6-1), first and second yesterday, gave Daqman’s Triumph Hurdle ante-post bet, Pain Du Chocolat, a double boost, as he’d hoped in his column. His best bets now have these sequences:
Naps: 1412141
Bankers: 1111111321
260.0, NOW 70.0 IN RUNNING: Milan Bound (WON 2-1) was another Daqman winner after a superb ride by champion, Tony McCoy, turned his chance around from 70.0 in running. Only on Monday, Daqman’s Gold Futures (WON 6-1) had seemed a no-hoper, 260.0 in running.
ANTE-POST GRAND NATIONAL DUO AT 46.0 AND 29.0: Daqman yesterday promised two horses to open your Grand National ante-post wallet on BETDAQ. And here they are, argued in his column, at 46.0 and 29.0 in the orange this morning.
NATIONAL: CUT TO THE CHASE WITH 46.0 SHOT
It’s in the papers year on year. The pundits tell you: look out for a horse hidden away and laid out for the Grand National. They’re never quite sure what they mean, but it’s a baffling good phrase to use.
Laid out for the race: sometimes, maybe; hidden away: sometime never. In fact, all the winners this century had two, three, four, five – even six – races in the autumn and winter running up to their Aintree success.
From Papillon in the year 2000 (the National was his seventh race since the preceding November) to Pineau de Re in 2014 (the National was his seventh race, too), Aintree has demanded a horse of a very tough constitution that thrives on racing.
I asked an equine veterinarian what these stats are all about, and this was his insight: ‘Most of the very toughest, stamina-laden horses need a lot of racing to get them right.’
‘Stamina-laden?’ Yes, that’s my next stat on the National: nine of the last 10 winners had already won or finished second at around 3m 4f or more.
‘The very toughest’? Yes, they need to be well tested. Young horses of six, seven and eight won’t do; they don’t have the experience; they haven’t built the muscle quality and lung capacity (thanks vet). The normal peak years for a chaser is when he’s seven, eight and nine; for a National winner, nine, 10 and 11. The last three winners have been 11; the six before that were 9 and 10.
Only one winner has been aged eight since 1992; only one 12-year-old has scored since 1995: ‘muscle fibre and lungs beginning to fail’ (Ok, doc; you can go now).
Check out that list of probables again. Ticking the boxes for age, stamina and current appearances, you’re left with just 18 out of 98, with the winner likely to be relatively unfancied, even ‘unknown’ to most punters.
I’ve got bragging rights this century to Silver Birch (won 33-1) but confess I failed to find Mon Mome (won 100-1), Neptune Collonges (33-1), Auroras Encore (66-1) and Pineau De Re (25-1).
That puts to bed another Press fallacy: since the fences have become easier, the better horses have better chances.
Yes, from 2009 to 2012 the winners all carried 11st to 11st 6lb but, since an even bigger adjustment to the fences, the last two renewals have been won off 10st 3lb and 10st 6lb, victory going to two of those lesser-known outsiders.
There is still time for other horses to add to the 18 by acquiring the current-season racing that’s needed but, on the facts before me today, I offer these two to the punting jury:
Night In Milan (46.0 on BETDAQ this morning): Grimthorpe winner last Spring with these quotes from Racing Post racereader: ‘none were able to live with him; went from pillar to post; jumped superbly.’
The son of Milan couldn’t get into the National, which is a blessing; he was only eight. He needed 32 to come out after the Grimthorpe. This year, he’s beautifully placed, 31 of the 98 with the limit on 40.
His weight has been kept spot on for this with two runs over hurdles (October and November) and two solid places back to chasing (December and January), including third in the Great Yorkshire, staying on and drawing 15 lengths clear of the remainder.
Shrewd placing has paid off and become perfect placing for Liverpool. You might even say he’s been laid out for the race!
Rocky Creek: This is more about trying to pre-empt a cut in price. Rocky, who made much of the running in last year’s National, and finished fifth with 11st 5lb off a rating of 156 is being cleverly produced for this year’s race.
He had two runs back in November and managed to shed 2lb. And a decent effort at Kempton on Saturday (when he can’t acquire a penalty for the big race) will renew his build-up nicely, yet he’s offered 29.0 for Aintree, ante-post on BETDAQ this morning. Laid out for it, I reckon!
KYLEMORE BETDAQ 41.0 FOR ALBERT BARTLETT
Most tracks are left-handed. Most horses seem to like to go that way: ‘it used to be how they were broken; the left is the mount-up side; the side you steer; the nearside’ (you still here, vet?).
So today, the form you read for the runners at Huntingdon and Musselburgh must include an assessment of their ability to go clockwise; both courses are right-handed.
It’s the ‘wrong way’ round for some, while others prefer it. At Huntingdon, Tafika and Ultimatum Du Roy (2.40) have far better records going right-handed than left. Brother Tedd (3.50) is three from four clockwise.
At Musselburgh, Urban Kode (2.20) loves the Edinburgh course and he enjoys Perth, three wins and three places right-handed; but he’s never won going left.
Right To Rule (4.35) has a near-on-50% record, win and place, from 15 starts left-handed, but his returns are zero going clockwise, and his jockey said he ‘never travelled’ last time he ran at Musselburgh.
Urban Kode is one of only two previous winners in his race – the other is the lefthand-drive Sendiym – and he likes a sound surface, which we’ve got in Edinburgh today.
He goes well for a boy and his penalty for a CD win eight days ago is more than negated by Ryan Nichol’s 10lb claim
At Huntingdon, I like Kylemore Lough (3.50), who must continue to take these small races in his stride if he is to stand any chance in the Albert Bartlett.
He’s 25-1 in five places in the Oddschecker list of bookmakers fixed-odds this morning but was steady on 41.0 when the BETDAQ ante-post list was checked at the same time.
At Clonmel, they tell; me to get on Visibile Light (4.30), mugged after leading two out over CD nine days ago and now with the man of a 1,000 Points (and I mean winners!), Mr Derek O’Connor, back on the Irish scene where he was once amateur champion.
At Sedgefield, Ballymoat (4.15) could be the hub of our wheel-of-fortune in going for a second winning yankee this week. Bad horses make you a bad punter, so subdue the stakes. The winningful weekend is almost here!
DAQMAN’S BETS (1 to 9 stakes show the strength; 10 is a banker)
BET 6pts win URBAN KODE (2.20 Musselburgh)
BET 8pts win (nap) KYLEMORE LOUGH (3.50 Huntingdon)
BET 7pts win VISIBLE LIGHT (4.30 Clonmel)
DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE: Urban Kode (2.20 Musselbugh), Kylemore Lough (3.50 Huntingdon), Ballymoat (4.15 Sedgefield) and Visible Light (4.30 Clonmel)
ANTE-POST: TON-UP BETS (each to win 100 points): 3.5pts win ROCKY CREEK and 2.2pts win NIGHT IN MILAN (Liverpool Grand National, April 11)
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